The Officially Sanctioned "River to My People!" Thread to Combat the Doom and Gloom and Stuff Nyarl

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Giz
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Re: The Officially Sanctioned "River to My People!" Thread to Combat the Doom and Gloom and Stuff Nyarl

Post by Giz » Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:21 am

Witness wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:53 am
'Remarkable' decline in fertility rates

There has been a remarkable, global decline in the number of children women are having, say researchers.

[…]
The study, published in the Lancet, followed trends in every country from 1950 to 2017.

In 1950, women were having an average of 4.7 children in their lifetime. The fertility rate all but halved to 2.4 children per woman by last year.
[…]
Prof Christopher Murray, the director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, told the BBC: "We've reached this watershed where half of countries have fertility rates below the replacement level, so if nothing happens the populations will decline in those countries.

"It's a remarkable transition.

"It's a surprise even to people like myself, the idea that it's half the countries in the world will be a huge surprise to people."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-46118103
"Which countries are affected?

More economically developed countries including most of Europe, the US, South Korea and Australia have lower fertility rates."

Oh well, I'm sure the Islamic states will step up to funding the UN, preventing world war and all that jazz.

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Re: The Officially Sanctioned "River to My People!" Thread to Combat the Doom and Gloom and Stuff Nyarl

Post by xouper » Sat Nov 10, 2018 10:04 am

xouper wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 2:26 pm
Rob Lister wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:46 am
I don't know if that is spectacularly bad reporting or spectacularly bad science.
Please enlighten me about what you find to be bad about either the reporting or the science. Thanks.
bump . . .

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Re: The Officially Sanctioned "River to My People!" Thread to Combat the Doom and Gloom and Stuff Nyarl

Post by xouper » Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:41 pm

xouper wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 10:04 am
xouper wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 2:26 pm
Rob Lister wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:46 am
I don't know if that is spectacularly bad reporting or spectacularly bad science.
Please enlighten me about what you find to be bad about either the reporting or the science. Thanks.
bump . . .
Apparently Rob has no intention of trying to explain his remarks.

I was willing to allow he might have had something interesting to say, but apparently not.

No matter, time to move on . . .

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Re: The Officially Sanctioned "River to My People!" Thread to Combat the Doom and Gloom and Stuff Nyarl

Post by Witness » Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:03 pm

Giz wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:21 am
"Which countries are affected?

More economically developed countries including most of Europe, the US, South Korea and Australia have lower fertility rates."

Oh well, I'm sure the Islamic states will step up to funding the UN, preventing world war and all that jazz.
You definitely have a point. Yet I think that's only part of the picture:
1. we have to start somewhere;
2. as somebody quipped, "A Murican family with two or three cars consumes as much resources as a Bangladeshi village";
3. "green" (sensu lato) technology can be exported, and the third world probably needs more everyday improvements than big (and often failed) projects;
4. as I wrote elsewhere, happy consumers find Allah less attractive.

Am I too optimistic?

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Re: The Officially Sanctioned "River to My People!" Thread to Combat the Doom and Gloom and Stuff Nyarl

Post by Giz » Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:13 pm

Witness wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:03 pm
Giz wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:21 am
"Which countries are affected?

More economically developed countries including most of Europe, the US, South Korea and Australia have lower fertility rates."

Oh well, I'm sure the Islamic states will step up to funding the UN, preventing world war and all that jazz.
You definitely have a point. Yet I think that's only part of the picture:

4. as I wrote elsewhere, happy consumers find Allah less attractive.

Am I too optimistic?
Weren't the 9/11 hijackers all middle class? Wasn't bin Laden rich? I'm not sure that we can simply rely on wealth to make people nicer or more secular - there needs to be an ideological case made to them (which being wealthier, they will have time to consider). However, the West seems to have lost its civilizational confidence and will not make the argument*.


* I mean, some bloggers will. But not politicians (at least not coherently - Maybe Trump tries, but who can decipher coherent thoughts out of that? )

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Re: The Officially Sanctioned "River to My People!" Thread to Combat the Doom and Gloom and Stuff Nyarl

Post by Doctor X » Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:36 am

How many Asshole Politicians who feast on the entrails of the People for their own welfare are poor?

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Re: The Officially Sanctioned "River to My People!" Thread to Combat the Doom and Gloom and Stuff Nyarl

Post by Witness » Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:35 am

Giz wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:13 pm
Weren't the 9/11 hijackers all middle class? Wasn't bin Laden rich? I'm not sure that we can simply rely on wealth to make people nicer or more secular - there needs to be an ideological case made to them (which being wealthier, they will have time to consider). However, the West seems to have lost its civilizational confidence and will not make the argument*.


* I mean, some bloggers will. But not politicians (at least not coherently - Maybe Trump tries, but who can decipher coherent thoughts out of that? )
Indeed.

It seems improbable that illiterate Middle-Eastern peasants will suddenly take to flying jetliners, and the wealthy dudes prefer somehow to go on living.

In that respect bin L. is an exception, being rich (apart from his inheritance he had also a ~ 7 M$/year stipend from his family) yet enjoying "fieldwork". I posted somewhere an article lauding him for that, when he was still a Pakistan based Good Guy™ hiring mercenaries to kill Commies. (His ~ 20 children took refuge in Iran, btw.)

But basically we think on different timescales. I wrote:
So, utopian solution: turn them into average customers. After the 1 – 2 generations needed for the religious rabies to die out, they'll be happy to be more concerned about their car/wide screen TV/vacation than about saving their wretched souls.
(viewtopic.php?f=6&t=48537&start=20#p935521)

I readily concede that this can be way too optimistic, and if Western History is any guide, centuries could be needed. But ideas and customs diffuse faster nowadays.

Another (quicker) way would be to go for the head(s), e. g. using something like the Magnitsky Act. I don't see much political will in that direction. (Cf. Khashoggi.)