I'm bored: so poker riddle

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RCC: Act II
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I'm bored: so poker riddle

Postby RCC: Act II » Fri Jan 05, 2018 6:09 pm

You are trying to get a seat to the $10,000 main event at the world series of poker. To this end you have entered a tournament that awards a seat to the top two finishers.

The tournament is down to three players. You have 9,990 chips. A second player has 9,990 chips. The third has 20 chips.

The blinds are 50-100. Player 3 is on the button, and folds his hand. Player two is in the small blind (has 100 in the pot), laughs maniacally and goes all in, betting the 9,890 he has remaining. He turns over a seven of clubs and a deuce of hearts. He laughs again and tears up the seven of clubs. The floorman is an idiot and rules that the hand is live and he only can use the deuce, while you can use both cards.

You are next to act. You have 200 already in the pot and can call for your last 9790. Are there any hands you do not call with?

(the spoiler tag is a thing...)

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Re: I'm bored: so poker riddle

Postby ed » Fri Jan 05, 2018 7:07 pm

I have no idea what you are going on about. Really. i understand the words but not what they mean when you string them together.

This thread is a cruel joke.
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Rob Lister
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Re: I'm bored: so poker riddle

Postby Rob Lister » Fri Jan 05, 2018 7:31 pm

Fold. YOu're not trying to win, only to place. If you have a two, call. Anything else, he can win with the 2. The third guy doesn't have enough to cover the blinds on the next hand. Why did he fold?

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Re: I'm bored: so poker riddle

Postby RCC: Act II » Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:36 pm

Rob Lister wrote:Fold. YOu're not trying to win, only to place. If you have a two, call. Anything else, he can win with the 2. The third guy doesn't have enough to cover the blinds on the next hand. Why did he fold?


The third guy's fold is arguably optimal with all hands.

I'm an idiot and screwed up the numbers.

The sure solution is a deuce and any heart. That combo can't lose.

It turns out that your answer of any other deuce is arguably break even.

Your 9790 stack represents a 97.9% chance of winning, so it is worth about $9790 in real money assuming equal skill. If you call and win, you get $10,000. Call and lose, you get zero.

So winning nets you $210 in value, and losing costs you $9790 in value, meaning you need to win 98% of the time, which, me being a moron, is roughly the chances of the lone deuce making a flush.

(When it is that close it becomes a question of relative skill which makes it a likely fold because player 2 is a moron and you have a long term skill advantage over him so gambling is not the best move, but that is getting a bit too upstream.

If he were to play both the deuce and the seven, then you shouldn't even look at your hand. Which is the more real world application...

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Re: I'm bored: so poker riddle

Postby Rob Lister » Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:41 pm

RCC: Act II wrote:
Rob Lister wrote:Fold. YOu're not trying to win, only to place. If you have a two, call. Anything else, he can win with the 2. The third guy doesn't have enough to cover the blinds on the next hand. Why did he fold?


The third guy's fold is arguably optimal with all hands.



I get the rest. I didn't even consider suits. I shoulda. Why is the button's best bet to fold? Is it because one of the two of you might lose it all in that one hand?

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Re: I'm bored: so poker riddle

Postby RCC: Act II » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:30 pm

Rob Lister wrote:
RCC: Act II wrote:
Rob Lister wrote:Fold. YOu're not trying to win, only to place. If you have a two, call. Anything else, he can win with the 2. The third guy doesn't have enough to cover the blinds on the next hand. Why did he fold?


The third guy's fold is arguably optimal with all hands.



I get the rest. I didn't even consider suits. I shoulda. Why is the button's best bet to fold? Is it because one of the two of you might lose it all in that one hand?


Pretty much, but that assumes one or both of you guys go nuts because neither of you should even look at your hands. If they aren't looking, he should play everything with at least 34% equity against one random hand because the small blind should always fold. That is everything but 32 and 42 offsuit.

The more chance the go nuts thing is likely, the narrower the guy should go. Against two guys that are capable of getting it in when both have at least kings, folding the borderline offsuit trash could be a good idea. If they are total muppets that can't fold a pair or AK, fold everything.


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