Fukushima one year on

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Fukushima one year on

Postby sparks » Wed May 16, 2012 8:01 pm

3 meltdowns 1 of which was total, that is to say the entire core liquified.
1, possibly 2 containment breaches.
3 hydrogen explosions.
1 criticality explosion.
7 spent fuel pools in various stages of collapse containing over 11,000 fuel rod assemblies, each assembly contains over 60 fuel rods.


The gift that keeps on giving, our buddy, The Atom. Here's a good linky to an interview/talk by Micio Kaku. Takes an hour, but well worth it. Some of it regarding Fukushima, some not.

http://soundcloud.com/flashpoints/flash ... wsmag-05-6

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Re: Fukushima one year on

Postby DrMatt » Wed May 16, 2012 9:06 pm

ItllNeverHappenHeretm
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Re: Fukushima one year on

Postby Bruce » Wed May 16, 2012 10:57 pm

Has the reactor melted it's way down to the core of the earth yet? You know, like the nuclear scientists of the 1940's promised?
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Re: Fukushima one year on

Postby sparks » Fri May 18, 2012 1:01 am

No. No 'China Syndrome'..................yet. But it's likely that one or more melt-throughs have occurred. If the melted 'corium' as it's called remains hot enough long enough, it will go through the outer containment (concrete) and into the earth below below (presumably bed rock). If it encounters any ground water along the way, then do have a good one Tokyo!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... plant.html

http://ecocentric.blogs.time.com/2011/0 ... -syndrome/

If one of those mothers was going to go China Syndrome on us, I'd have thought it would have gone off by now, so hopefully the corium is too cold to be on the move.
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Re: Fukushima one year on

Postby Doctor X » Fri May 18, 2012 1:04 am

I think given Tokyo has not been stomped, the risks of nuclear power in Japan have been greatly exaggerated.









What?

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Re: Fukushima one year on

Postby sparks » Fri May 18, 2012 1:13 am

Well, you know it's not the nuclear power itself that's the danger. It's the fact that the nukes melt the ice in which Godzilla is imprisoned, and once he thaws out........................
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Re: Fukushima one year on

Postby Rob Lister » Fri May 18, 2012 1:27 am

how many deaths?

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Re: Fukushima one year on

Postby sparks » Fri May 18, 2012 2:21 am

Rob Lister wrote:how many deaths?


Let you know in 20 years...........................
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Re: Fukushima one year on

Postby -FX- » Fri May 18, 2012 2:40 am

Reading the very very long transcripts, which are heavily redacted (censored with literally, a big black marker), it becomes clear why the US military reacted as they did during the crisis stage.

And why they were scrambling so hard to get the Japanese to accept help.

It's extremely complicated, more so by all the things that are still not released. The things that are known for sure, is that nobody actually knows. It's not that TEPCO and the Japanese authorities are not saying, sometimes they actually just do not know what is happening. Or happened.

But after reading all of the documents, I have to agree 100% with
What is perfectly clear in the various documents from March 11th through March 18th – the time period when reactors 1, 2 and 3 were actively melting and exploding and the unit 4 spent fuel pool fires led to a fourth reactor building blow-out – is that the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, along with several other departments and agencies of the U.S. government and the UN’s IAEA, were watching the situation very closely.

Our government was intimately involved in withholding accurate data from the public as well as minimizing what was being publicly reported.
http://enformable.com/2012/03/fukushima-anniversary-top-125-foia-documents-and-transcripts-during-the-first-week-of-the-fukushima-disaster/

But that is a huge complicated mess of stuff. In regards to the worst case scenario, as far as I can tell, nobody in the media, or even the alarmists blogs, nobody ever came close to describing the worst case disaster that almost happened. The recent Frontline show http://video.pbs.org/video/2202847024 made it clear just how close it all was, and how a few heroes risked their lives to save not just Japan, but the world.

(No, the Frontline show does not discuss the worst case scenario.) Based on the experts discussing the disaster, as it occurred, the worst case scenario was going to come from the spent fuel pond in building four. Of all things, the reactor that was shut down, not even fueled, suffered the worst structural damage, and threatened to cause a disaster so bad nobody had ever imagined it.
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Re: Fukushima one year on

Postby -FX- » Fri May 18, 2012 2:41 am

To cut to the chase (some would say, too late) the really big fear was the #4 fuel pond. (at the time, we now know it was also building three that was in big trouble).

Of course the reason the fuel pond was so much trouble was the explosion of three, which spread deadly radiation (including nuclear fuel) all over the fucking place, but most seriously, between buildings three and four, which is exactly where men needed to be to stop things from getting worse.

This would be the point where the helicopters were trying to dump water, from high altitudes, due to the extreme levels of radioactivity. Which enabled the firefighters to go in. If they hadn't been able to run those lines and start spraying water, things would have gone from bad to worse, to complete disaster.

You hear in the Frontline at 37:00 that the fuel could catch fire, which would be worse than a reactor blowing it's core into the atmosphere. No doubt about that. But what the experts were saying (which AFAIK so far, has never been talked about in the media) was so much worse.

The fuel pond going dry, catching on fire, that is so horrific, it's hard to imagine worse. (hell, even in my worst case scenario I never considered it). What would happen, it turns out, is the spent fuel would slump to the bottom of the pool, and even with out a nuclear reaction happening, the heat would melt the concrete bottom of the pool. Actually cause it to burn. And after the 3,000 or so tons of burning and melting nuclear fuel breached the concrete it would fall into the basement, onto the torus.

Which did have a lot water in it. Be it building three or four (or one or two or five or six) when a shit ton of burning nuclear fuel hits water, things turn to complete shit. It wouldn't matter which reactor that happened in, at that point it's fucking game over.

Because it seems when that complete and utter clusterfuck happens, not only does the fuel go really big boom from the steam explosion, it spreads the fuel all over the fucking plant. (forget about down wind at this point, that doesn't even matter)

Because at that special point in time, nobody can anywhere close to the place.

I was all like, what the fuck? Seriously? Are you fucking kidding me?

You can't hear the inflection, but just reading the transcripts, the tension is so thick at that point, it's like fucking Dr. Strangelove.

I imagine the blacked out portions go something like this:

"The torus?"

"Yeah, the fucking torus is right under that fucking fuel pond."

"So what?"

"So of that fucking shit hits the torus it will melt through it like a hot knife through butter, and when it hits the water in there the whole fucking thing will blow to Kingdom come."

"WHAT???"

"It's a know flaw in the motherfucking Mark I. We have the whole scenario mapped out since 1972. We ran all the simulations."

"Shit. What the fuck do we do about it?"

"Well, that is the one thing that isn't in the simulation."

"Are you fucking kidding me?"

"You just have to keep water on it, Keep the fuel covered."

"We FUCKING KNOW THAT! How do we get close enough to do that?"

"Well, at this point a few people are going to have to die."

"Well for fucks sake don't say anything to anyone about that. The media would have a field day reporting that shit."

"No worries. There's a war going to break out in Africa in the morning, nobody will give a shit about this in about 24 hours."
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Re: Fukushima one year on

Postby sparks » Fri May 18, 2012 3:10 am

Thanks for that FX. Yep, that's one big fucking bloody mess over there, I reason it threatens the entire planet (meaning us stoopid yumins) and it's not getting better, it's getting worse. Since we can't get close enough to do any meaningful recon, we can't possibly begin to develop a plan for control and containment. One more big quake will bring down building 4 and with it, that spent fuel pool. And, as you've pointed out, if all that shit is uncovered it will catch on fire. Make arrangements to then spend the retirement fund on 8 balls and asian hookers 'cause it's 'On The Beach' revisited.

Nothing sharpens the mind like the knowledge of one's demise. Some call this paranoia. Time will tell. If we are still all here and happy about what has happened regarding control and containment at Fukushima in, say, 10 years, I will gladly cede the point and never darken any fora with my concerns about nuclear power again.

However, if that spent fuel pool goes dry and the spent fuel catches on fire, the radioactive shitstorm contained therein will be aerozolised. There will be no place to run to, no place to hide, as the old song goes. Good news AC: You won't have a cat problem anymore! Bad news: You won't live long enough to enjoy it.

How many dead? Patience Lister, patience. We're just getting on a good roll with this radioactive slag heap. Give it another decade or 100.

Fuck me running uphill backwards at full speed. :cry:
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Re: Fukushima one year on

Postby -FX- » Fri May 18, 2012 5:22 pm

sparks wrote: it's getting worse. Since we can't get close enough to do any meaningful recon, we can't possibly begin to develop a plan for control and containment. One more big quake will bring down building 4 and with it, that spent fuel pool. And, as you've pointed out, if all that shit is uncovered it will catch on fire.


Nope. They have been working hard to make sure the fuel pond doesn't collapse. The amount of radiation leaking into the air is still decreasing. Can't say about the groundwater.

Even if the pond starts to go, they will pump water on it, to prevent any air releases. What will happen after that is a fuckin mystery of course. But I am not going to live with a worse case scenario.
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Re: Fukushima one year on

Postby sparks » Fri May 18, 2012 5:45 pm

-FX- wrote:
sparks wrote: it's getting worse. Since we can't get close enough to do any meaningful recon, we can't possibly begin to develop a plan for control and containment. One more big quake will bring down building 4 and with it, that spent fuel pool. And, as you've pointed out, if all that shit is uncovered it will catch on fire.


Nope. They have been working hard to make sure the fuel pond doesn't collapse. The amount of radiation leaking into the air is still decreasing. Can't say about the groundwater.

Even if the pond starts to go, they will pump water on it, to prevent any air releases. What will happen after that is a fuckin mystery of course. But I am not going to live with a worse case scenario.



Oh. Pollyana huh? Shit, you're no fun....................... :)
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Re: Fukushima one year on

Postby hammegk » Fri May 18, 2012 6:52 pm

Aerosolized huh? What are the worst, lightest, components?

Do we have downwind disaster maps available?

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Re: Fukushima one year on

Postby En folkefiende » Fri May 18, 2012 10:42 pm

Sparks, I think you're overstating the problem a bit.

This is not to say it's NOT a problem.
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Re: Fukushima one year on

Postby sparks » Fri May 18, 2012 11:19 pm

Well damnit, someone's got to run around yelling all about the sky falling and shit. Might as well be me. :)
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Re: Fukushima one year on

Postby En folkefiende » Sat May 19, 2012 12:29 am

sparks wrote:Well damnit, someone's got to run around yelling all about the sky falling and shit. Might as well be me. :)


If that photo is you, you don't look terribly stressed.

I forget, you still in Oregon?
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Re: Fukushima one year on

Postby sparks » Sat May 19, 2012 2:27 am

Yep. And that's an old photo taken back when my hair was still brown and my teeth were still white! Just a little boating on Tillamook bay (and just outside too) on an exceptionally fine day for the Oregon coast. You know, the most stressful thing about this kind of shit is not being able to do anything constructive to help mitigate the problem(s). Now that this sumbitch has been set to rolling, there's nothing to do except sit back, pop open a cold one and watch. A person of faith might pray that it doesn't get any worse, but I'm not a person of faith.
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Re: Fukushima one year on

Postby Rob Lister » Sat Jun 16, 2012 11:32 am

(Newser) – Barely a month after Japan shut down its last nuclear reactor, the government approved plans today to bring one reactor back online, reports the AP. The Japanese public has been wildly against nuclear power since last spring's disaster at the Fukushima plant, but with summer energy demands threatening electricity shortages, Kansai Electric Power plans on restarting two reactors in the western town of Ohi, to help with power supplies in Osaka.

"I approve the plan because I have been assured of the government's safety efforts and because it will provide stability for our industries," said the regional governor for Ohi. The shutdown of Japan's 50 nuclear power plants has hurt the economy badly, and the government is eager to show that the nation's reactors are safe so they can be restarted.


A wise move. They should start construction on twenty or so more. Pebble-beds or Sodium-cooled. Modular.

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Re: Fukushima one year on

Postby sparks » Sun Jun 17, 2012 6:19 pm

"I approve the plan because I have been assured of the government's safety efforts and because it will provide stability for our industries,........


Yea, Sky Daddy knows we can't let anything interfere with our profitability! And you just gotta love those government safety assurances too. :o
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