AI: Be afraid

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AI: Be afraid

Post by Rob Lister » Sun Aug 04, 2013 11:58 am

A mostly unthoughtful opinion on AI
I, for one, do not welcome our new robot overlords.

Let me elaborate.

Writing about Artificial Intelligence is a challenge. By and large, there are two directions to take when discussing the subject: focus on the truly remarkable achievements of the technology or dwell on the dangers of what could happen if machines reach a level of Sentient AI, in which self-aware machines reach human level intelligence).

This dichotomy irritates me. I don’t want to have to choose sides. As a technologist, I embrace the positive aspects of AI, when it helps advance medical or other technologies. As an individual, I reserve the right to be scared poop-less that by 2023 we might achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) or Strong AI — machines that can successfully perform any intellectual task a person can.
http://mashable.com/2013/08/03/artifici ... feedburner

I think the 2023 timeline is a bit optimistic (or pessimistic for the fearful). We'll (they'll) be further along and far more capable by then, certainly. It won't really start taking off until such time as the machines are smart enough to help with the process. :) It will be a singularity only from the perspective of hindsight.

But this:
In a report published by Human Right’s Watch and Harvard Law School’s International Human Rights Clinic, "Losing Humanity, The Case Against Killer Robots", the authors write: “In its Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap FY2011-2036, the U.S. Department of Defense wrote that it ‘envisions unmanned systems seamlessly operating with manned systems while gradually reducing the degree of human control and decision making required for the unmanned portion of the force structure.’”


Is the real thread.

Their POV is: As we take humans out of the warfare equation, humanity is lost.

Personally, I would much rather my robot take point. But to their point, if they have one:
This 50-page report outlines concerns about these fully autonomous weapons, which would inherently lack human qualities that provide legal and non-legal checks on the killing of civilians. In addition, the obstacles to holding anyone accountable for harm caused by the weapons would weaken the law’s power to deter future violations.
http://www.hrw.org/reports/2012/11/19/losing-humanity-0

Well, not if they're programmed in. Hell, they be far less likely to lack such qualities than some humans I know.





related: OpenCog timeline. http://opencog.org/roadmap/

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Re: AI: Be afraid

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Sun Aug 04, 2013 1:11 pm

Not afraid at all. I can make predictions too.

We will be rebuilding the ruins of the USA and worshipping Allah. :Muhammad:
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Re: AI: Be afraid

Post by Mentat » Sun Aug 04, 2013 5:07 pm

which would inherently lack human qualities
Like the human qualities to start a war in the first place?
It's "pea-can", man.

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Re: AI: Be afraid

Post by hammegk » Mon Aug 05, 2013 4:30 pm

Mentat wrote:
which would inherently lack human qualities
Like the human qualities to start a war in the first place?
They'd want all ores and electricity!

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Re: AI: Be afraid

Post by DrMatt » Mon Aug 05, 2013 5:15 pm

Abdul Alhazred wrote:Not afraid at all. I can make predictions too.

We will be rebuilding the ruins of the USA and worshipping Allah. :Muhammad:
You're just advocating governmental intervention! :p

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Re: AI: Be afraid

Post by DrMatt » Mon Aug 05, 2013 5:17 pm

hammegk wrote:
Mentat wrote:
which would inherently lack human qualities
Like the human qualities to start a war in the first place?
They'd want all ores and electricity!
To win Wimboldon!
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Re: AI: Be afraid

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Mon Aug 05, 2013 5:18 pm

DrMatt wrote:
Abdul Alhazred wrote:Not afraid at all. I can make predictions too.

We will be rebuilding the ruins of the USA and worshipping Allah. :Muhammad:
You're just advocating governmental intervention! :p

FNORD
Not advocating, just predicting.

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Re: AI: Be afraid

Post by Mentat » Mon Aug 05, 2013 7:44 pm

hammegk wrote:
Mentat wrote:
which would inherently lack human qualities
Like the human qualities to start a war in the first place?
They'd want all ores and electricity!
You mean Afghanistan?
It's "pea-can", man.

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Re: AI: Be afraid

Post by GaryMacRick » Thu Aug 08, 2013 9:31 pm

Be not afraid.. In fact you posted the reason earlier. Peak Helium (peak everything) will make AI impossible and the Singularity a joke.

Much like the square of i, this just got real..

http://www.idahostatesman.com/2013/07/1 ... event.html
(I just love the last line. Now, off to polish my resume.)

Granted the Helium shortage is man made, in part. Yes, 'natural' He resources not controlled by the government in the US are winding down, but the strategic reserve is huge, and there are foreign sources for it (Russia for instance). But, this should be recognized as part of the bigger Achilles heal of the singularity/Ai movement. Semiconductor manufacture depends on ever declining natural resources to reach a goal that is always ten to twenty years away. We may very well achieve Ai. But, we may also have to unplug it the next day because the resources used to keep it running are the same ones that allow us to eat.

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Re: AI: Be afraid

Post by DrMatt » Thu Aug 08, 2013 10:45 pm

GaryMacRick wrote:Be not afraid.. In fact you posted the reason earlier. Peak Helium (peak everything) will make AI impossible and the Singularity a joke.

Much like the square of i, this just got real..

[url]http://www.idahostatesman.com/2013/07/1 ... t.html/url]
(I just love the last line. Now, off to polish my resume.)

Granted the Helium shortage is man made, in part. Yes, 'natural' He recourses not controlled by the government in the US are winding down, but the strategic reserve is huge, and there are foreign sources for it (Russia for instance). But, this should be recognized as part of the bigger Achilles heal of the singularity/Ai movement. Semiconductor manufacture depends on ever declining natural recourses to reach a goal that is always ten to twenty years away. We may very well achieve Ai. But, we may also have to unplug it the next day because the recourses used to keep it running are the same ones that allow us to eat.

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Re: AI: Be afraid

Post by GaryMacRick » Thu Aug 08, 2013 11:10 pm

If only I was talking about recourses.. LOL

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Re: AI: Be afraid

Post by Rob Lister » Thu Aug 08, 2013 11:56 pm

While I agree that strategic global reserves of helium are very mismanaged (party balloons? seriously?), I can't quite figure out what that has to do with AI, or the energy used in keeping an AI system running. What am I missing?

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Re: AI: Be afraid

Post by Cool Hand » Fri Aug 09, 2013 12:48 am

Foreign sources of helium? If you want to pursue really foreign sources, I hear there's some on the sun...

Come on, Mr. Kurzweil, think big, man.

CH
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Re: AI: Be afraid

Post by GaryMacRick » Fri Aug 09, 2013 7:36 am

TL:DR (but you asked for it.)

Helium is amazing. First it's a noble gas meaning that it (generally) does not react with anything, ergo, you can introduce it into a chemical soup and it will not go boom. This and it's relatively small size make it ideal for industrial leak detection, also, it can be used in welding as a gas shield keeping more reactive elements like Oxygen and Nitrogen from contaminating and weakening the joint. Argon, another noble gas, could be (and is) used as substitute, in both cases. However, Argon, in leak detection, being a heavier atom tends to sink and displace (push up and out) other (sometimes hazardous) gases, where Helium will not. Even a small amount of Helium will flow through, over and out if it can.

Secondly, it has a very low freezing & melting point, making it an incredible refrigerant. Cryos running on helium can run at 8-10K (that's eight to ten degrees above absolute 0. Absolute 0 is the point at which individual atoms will stop vibrating). The reason you want a cryo to run at this temperature is to use it as an atom trap. Many of the stray atoms left in the chamber after mechanical pumping will 'freeze' to the cooling plates of the cryo. This is done in order to make a more perfect vacuum.

Without this vacuum manufacturing chips of the type needed in modern electronics is simply not possible.

To understand why, you have to understand the scale. Structures in semiconductor manufacturing are measured in nanometers. In some applications even a small amount of anything can destroy the structures that are being deposited onto (or into) the silicon (or less commonly germanium) substrate. This is why you'd want to start with as perfect a vacuum as possible and only then introduce the gas, plasma or ion beam (depending on process) that you want when you want it.

If production was being done in orbit I suppose that you could just open the chamber to space on one side, and barring any contamination coming in off the solar wind you'd have pretty good manufacturing conditions. But, that is an entirely different set of logistical and infrastructure problems.
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Re: AI: Be afraid

Post by GaryMacRick » Fri Aug 09, 2013 7:59 am

Cool Hand wrote:Foreign sources of helium? If you want to pursue really foreign sources, I hear there's some on the sun...

Come on, Mr. Kurzweil, think big, man.

CH
LOL... Jupiter Would be far more likely. 28% Helium and not on fire.

Kurzwell has some good ideas. As far as the Singularity is concerned the man is a complete quack.

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Re: AI: Be afraid

Post by GaryMacRick » Fri Aug 09, 2013 10:31 am

Rob Lister wrote:While I agree that strategic global reserves of helium are very mismanaged (party balloons? seriously?), I can't quite figure out what that has to do with AI, or the energy used in keeping an AI system running. What am I missing?
I can clarify my earlier comment.

It depends, if you think that real Ai will come about from biomedical advancements, making a better brain using genetics and biochemistry, fine it may not even be hard.

But to do it with Semiconductor technology it may not be achievable in a world with increasingly depleting resources and it will not be sustainable (not without introducing resources). Helium is just one example. I need silicon, nickel, copper, gold, boron, arsenic, germanium, disilene, carbon, polycarbonates, HCl, phosphine, ext, ext, ext... even water.. Also, I need these in the purest possible forms (zero contaminants), if I cannot find them naturally then they have to be created and this requires energy. It's such that every peak resource that you can think of, and even ones you or I can't even think of, on some level apply.

Given that Ai has been just 10 to 20 years away since the 1970's and in 2013 is still just 10 to 20 years away. I'm understandably very, very skeptical about anyone who says Ai just around the corner.

We may at one point be able to make Ai systems, but, how bad will things be at that point? Even if half of the possible peaks don't happen, how many of them actually will? Even the worst weatherman is right some of the time. How long will those resources last before we have to pull the plug?

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Re: AI: Be afraid

Post by DrMatt » Fri Aug 09, 2013 3:48 pm

Rob Lister wrote:A mostly unthoughtful opinion on Al
Al who? Al Franken?
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Re: AI: Be afraid

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Fri Aug 09, 2013 4:26 pm

Any AI smart enough to pass a rigorous Turing test is smart enough to blow the test on purpose.

Always let your enemies underestimate you before striking the final blow.

That was good enough for Sun Tzu and Macchiavelli, it'll be good enough for the new masters of Earth. :P
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Re: AI: Be afraid

Post by GaryMacRick » Sat Aug 10, 2013 5:13 am

Abdul Alhazred wrote:Any AI smart enough to pass a rigorous Turing test is smart enough to blow the test on purpose.

Always let your enemies underestimate you before striking the final blow.

That was good enough for Sun Tzu and Macchiavelli, it'll be good enough for the new masters of Earth. :P
True. Maybe a smart enough Ai would create an account and post to that one day.

:-o Now, that I think about it.... Wouldn't he'd write a tirade about how you shouldn't worry because Ai is not possible.

:notsure:

:?

:shock: Am I real?

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Re: AI: Be afraid

Post by Cool Hand » Sat Aug 10, 2013 1:22 pm

GaryMacRick wrote: :shock: Am I real?
Rachael didn't know she was a replicant.

CH
....life purpose is pay taxes -- pillory 12/05/13

And you run and you run to catch up with the sun but it's sinking
Racing around to come up behind you again
The sun is the same in a relative way, but you're older
Shorter of breath and one day closer to death.

"Time" -- Pink Floyd