Google Self-Driving Car Accident Reports

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Re: Google Self-Driving Car Accident Reports

Post by Rob Lister » Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:45 am

I must have missed the part. Maybe because they didn't show that part.

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Re: Google Self-Driving Car Accident Reports

Post by Anaxagoras » Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:59 am

The highway forks but the car didn't take either the right lane or the left lane. Instead it mistook the no-man's land in between for a lane.
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Re: Google Self-Driving Car Accident Reports

Post by Grammatron » Mon Apr 02, 2018 8:29 pm

Decades away IMO.

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Re: Google Self-Driving Car Accident Reports

Post by Rob Lister » Mon Apr 02, 2018 8:36 pm

Grammatron wrote:Decades away IMO.
Maybe the 's' is too much but I generally agree. I think less than twenty years. By ten some self-driving will be common.

I'm not sure how it will handle the really weird stuff where even humans are not well equipped. Some sort of 24/7 support system is going to be required. That's why God gave us India.

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Re: Google Self-Driving Car Accident Reports

Post by Anaxagoras » Tue Apr 03, 2018 3:19 am

Anaxagoras wrote:The highway forks but the car didn't take either the right lane or the left lane. Instead it mistook the no-man's land in between for a lane.
Just for reference, the recent fatal Tesla autopilot crash happened at a similar fork in the road:

https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/03/28/ ... tal-crash/

In the video I posted above I can see how the autopilot made the error, because the lane markers were fading but the one on the left was clear. Fooled it into thinking it was in the lane.
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Re: Google Self-Driving Car Accident Reports

Post by Anaxagoras » Tue Apr 03, 2018 5:27 am

Here's data about the difference between makers:

Leaked data suggests Uber self-driving car program may be way behind Waymo [Updated]
Insiders have long viewed Uber as a laggard in the driverless car race, but internal documents obtained by The New York Times suggest that the company's self-driving car program may be even further behind its rivals than had been publicly known.

The key statistic: prior to last Sunday's fatal crash in Tempe, Arizona, Uber's self-driving cars in Arizona were "struggling" to go 13 miles between interventions by a safety driver—known as a disengagement.

The Times points out that, in 2017, Waymo's self-driving cars in California traveled 5,600 miles between incidents in which a driver had to take over for safety reasons. Cruise, GM's self-driving car subsidiary, had a safety-related disengagement once every 1,250 miles in the state. We don't know either company's statistics in Arizona because Arizona law doesn't require them to be disclosed.

The Times presents the Uber and Waymo paragraphs back to back, suggesting they're directly comparable. But it's not clear if they are. The Waymo and Cruise figures are for safety-related disengagements—situations when the driver has to take over to prevent an accident. The figures don't include situations where the vehicle gets stumped by something tricky like a construction site and needs the safety driver to take over even though there's no immediate danger of a crash.

It's not clear from the Times report whether that 13-miles-per-disengagement figure is for safety-related disengagements—which would be comparable to the California numbers—or for all disengagements—which wouldn't be.

Moreover, as an Uber spokesman pointed out to the Times, the disengagement rate depends on many factors, including the type of roads the car is being tested on, the kinds of tests being performed, and how a car's software is configured. However, Uber is testing its cars in the Phoenix metro area—a region whose wide suburban streets are generally considered among the easiest in the country to navigate. By contrast, Cruise CEO Kyle Vogt has boasted about testing cars on the crowded and chaotic streets of urban San Francisco.

If it is an apples-to-apples comparison, then Uber would have a lot of ground to make up. In 2016, Waymo's (then Google's) cars in California went more than 5,000 miles between disengagements. In 2015, the figure was 1,250 miles per disengagement. So that would mean Uber's cars need human help 100 times as often as Waymo's cars did in 2015.
It may possibly be that non-safety disengagements are included in the Uber numbers, but then again, it may be an apples-to-apples comparison. Here's that NY Times story:

Uber’s Self-Driving Cars Were Struggling Before Arizona Crash
SAN FRANCISCO — Uber’s robotic vehicle project was not living up to expectations months before a self-driving car operated by the company struck and killed a woman in Tempe, Ariz.

The cars were having trouble driving through construction zones and next to tall vehicles, like big rigs. And Uber’s human drivers had to intervene far more frequently than the drivers of competing autonomous car projects.

Waymo, formerly the self-driving car project of Google, said that in tests on roads in California last year, its cars went an average of nearly 5,600 miles before the driver had to take control from the computer to steer out of trouble. As of March, Uber was struggling to meet its target of 13 miles per “intervention” in Arizona, according to 100 pages of company documents obtained by The New York Times and two people familiar with the company’s operations in the Phoenix area but not permitted to speak publicly about it.

Yet Uber’s test drivers were being asked to do more — going on solo runs when they had worked in pairs.

And there also was pressure to live up to a goal to offer a driverless car service by the end of the year and to impress top executives. Dara Khosrowshahi, Uber’s chief executive, was expected to visit Arizona in April, and leaders of the company’s development group in the Phoenix area wanted to give him a glitch-free ride in an autonomous car. Mr. Khosrowshahi’s trip was called “Milestone 1: Confidence” in the company documents.
Another story from Wired:
DMV Data Says Waymo and GM Are Leading the Self-Driving Car Race
The Golden State, home to many of the companies leading the robo revolution, has some of the strictest rules for AVs in the country. Operators who run cars on public roads must publicly report any crashes they’re involved in. And at the end of every year, they must hand over data on how many miles they drove and how many times their onboard human safety driver had to take control from the machine—that’s called a disengagement. Combine those, and you have a number approximating how far any company’s self-driving car can go without human help. Something like a grade.

The metric is imperfect, and this data comes with a crate of caveats. But before we get into those, know this: Waymo (formerly known as Google’s self-driving car project) and General Motors appear to be leading the pack and making rapid progress toward the day when human drivers, with all their inattention and distraction and tendency to crash, will be obsolete.
Ifs and Buts

You can read more about the shortcomings of disengagement reports here, but here’s the quick rundown:
  • They’re unscientific, because each company reports its data in a different way, offering various levels of detail and idiosyncratic explanations for what triggered the human takeover.
  • They’re packed with vague language and lack context. Delphi cites “cyclist” as the reason for a bunch of disengagements. Zoox blamed every disengagement on a “planning discrepancy” or “hardware discrepancy.”
  • They’re little use for anyone who wants to compare rival companies, because those companies aren’t running the same tests: Waymo does most of its testing in simple suburbs; GM focuses on the complex city. They’re better for tracking the progress of each outfit, but still not great, because those companies change how and where they test over time.
  • A disengagement does not mean the car was going to crash, only that the human driver wasn't 100 percent confident in how it would behave.
  • They only cover driving on public roads in California. So we don’t know anything about Ford, which focuses its testing around Detroit and Pittsburgh. We don’t see data for Waymo’s increasingly important test program in Phoenix—where its cars are tooling about without anyone inside.
On the other hand, the disengagement reports are the best data we’ve got for evaluating these development efforts. No state but California demands anything like this, and private companies only share such info when the government demands it.

So, let's sprinkle some grains of salt on the numbers and take a look. We broke them down into a pair of two-axis charts. The first looks at Waymo and General Motors. It notes how many miles they drove in 2016 and 2017 (in green) and how many miles they averaged between disengagements (in blue). (By the way, Uber didn't have to file a report, because this data isn't required until your first full calendar year of testing. Uber didn't get its permit to test in California until March of 2017.)

The takeaway here is that Waymo’s software remains excellent, and it’s still doing tons of testing in California. For GM, you can see a huge ramp-up in miles driven, and a steep increase in miles per disengagement. That’s progress, and it's a good thing: GM plans to launch a car without a steering wheel or pedals next year. Keep in mind that GM does nearly all its public street testing in San Francisco, a much more complicated environment than Palo Alto and Mountain View, where Waymo works.
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Re: Google Self-Driving Car Accident Reports

Post by Anaxagoras » Tue Apr 03, 2018 5:34 am

This is pretty cool, 360-degree video:

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Re: Google Self-Driving Car Accident Reports

Post by Anaxagoras » Wed May 09, 2018 4:17 am

At first watching this does not appear to be avoidable:

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Re: Google Self-Driving Car Accident Reports

Post by Anaxagoras » Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:45 pm

Waymo launches self-driving car service Waymo One
Waymo, the former Google self-driving project owned by parent company Alphabet, is launching a commercial robotaxi service in the Phoenix area dubbed Waymo One.

This milestone, for the company and nascent self-driving technology industry, comes with caveats.

The Waymo One self-driving car service, and accompanying app, won’t be available to just anyone. And for now, the company says it will have Waymo-trained test drivers behind the wheel (even though the company already has driverless vehicles on public roads in Phoenix).

Waymo will first invite Phoenix residents who are part of its early rider program, which was designed to give a vetted group of people the ability to use an app to hail a self-driving vehicle. The early rider program, which launched in April 2017, had more than 400 participants the last time Waymo shared figures on the program.
OK, so it's really still in the sandbox phase, not a true "driverless" car service available to the general public, but it's a step forward. A baby step.

Ultimately the technology isn't really mature until "driverless" literally means driverless. How far away is that?
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Re: Google Self-Driving Car Accident Reports

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:37 pm

Inevitably, one will hit a child.

The only question is before or after general adoption of the technology.
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Re: Google Self-Driving Car Accident Reports

Post by Anaxagoras » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:49 am

A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
William Shakespeare