Recent published research on global warming

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Recent published research on global warming

Post by Anaxagoras » Tue Sep 19, 2017 6:54 am

A recent paper published in Nature suggests that global warming may not be as severe as previous studies predicted.

Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C may still be possible
A team of climate scientists has delivered a rare bit of good news: it could be easier than previously thought to limit global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, as called for in the 2015 Paris climate agreement. But even if the team is right — and some researchers are already questioning the conclusions — heroic efforts to curb greenhouse-gas emissions will still be necessary to limit warming.

Published on 18 September in Nature Geoscience1, the analysis focuses in part on the fact that global climate models used in the 2013 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) tend to overestimate the extent of warming that has already occurred. After adjusting for that discrepancy and running further models, the authors of the latest study found that the amount of carbon that humanity can emit from 2015 onward while holding temperatures below 1.5 °C is nearly three times greater than estimated by the IPCC — or even larger if there is aggressive action on greenhouse gases beyond carbon dioxide.

The implications for global policymakers are significant. Humanity is poised to blow through the IPCC’s carbon budget for a 1.5 °C rise within a few years, leading many scientists to declare the goal impossible. But the new analysis suggests that it could be met with a modest strengthening of the current Paris pledges up to 2030, followed by sharp cuts in carbon emissions thereafter.

“The Paris goal of 1.5 °C is not impossible — it’s just very, very difficult,” says lead author Richard Millar, a climate researcher at the University of Oxford, UK.
Debate rages on

The work is receiving mixed reviews. Some argue that the analysis is fundamentally flawed, because it centres on a period of slower warming that began around the turn of the millennium. This period, often referred to as the climate hiatus, continued until 2014. Scientists think that natural variability in the climate system temporarily suppressed temperatures during this period.

The team’s estimate for the amount of warming that humans have caused so far — 0.93 °C — could thus be artificially low, because it calculates the human contribution to warming during this cooler time, says Ben Sanderson, a climate modeller at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado.

At the same time, he says, the oceans and the land were probably absorbing more carbon than normal during this period. Natural processes will eventually dump some of that back into the atmosphere, thus reducing the amount of carbon that humanity can emit before reaching 1.5°C.

“These two effects, to my mind, explain away their result and reinforce the original IPCC conclusion,” Sanderson says.

But Millar and his colleagues argue that the effects of the hiatus would be minimal. The team used multiple methodologies to estimate the actual warming due to greenhouse gases, independent of short-term climate variability. The scientists calculated how much carbon would be needed to push the temperature up by another 0.6 °C, to 1.5 °C. But they also calculated how much carbon it would take to reach that threshold if the amount of human-caused warming so far was lower or higher than their estimate of 0.93 °C.

In all cases, Millar says, the amount of carbon that humans could emit before Earth warms to that 1.5 °C threshold is larger than previously estimated.
Counting carbon

Nathan Gillett, a climatologist at the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis in Victoria, says that other teams have previously documented the slight discrepancy between the warming projected by climate models and that shown by actual observations. But Gillett credits Millar’s team with teasing out the implications of this gap, and of reducing the uncertainty surrounding the amount of emissions that would produce warming of 1.5 °C. “I think their central conclusion is robust,” Gillett says.

The debate over how close the world is to the 1.5 °C warming threshold is unlikely to be resolved any time soon, but one thing is clear: modelling scenarios that enable Earth to remain below that target poses a new kind of challenge. Uncertainty about the details of humanity’s carbon budget don’t matter so much when scientists are modelling the cumulative effect of greenhouse gases over the course of centuries. But fine details matter a great deal when researchers are looking at what level of greenhouse-gas emissions would bump warming to 1.5 °C, because, in that case, scientists’ goal is to tease out the precise effects of heat-trapping gases over a few decades.

“When we start thinking about really ambitious mitigation goals in the really near term, everything starts to matter,” Millar says.
So, maybe things aren't quite so dire after all? Of course, 2030 is not so far away, and this all assumes that by then the technology will be available to make "sharp cuts in carbon emissions thereafter."
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Re: Recent published research on global warming

Post by Doctor X » Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:39 am

So you buy into the Gore Conspiracy?

:freedom:

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Re: Recent published research on global warming

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:06 am

Prediction: At some point in the next few years there will be some other number one crisis that demands handing over all our freedom and prosperity forever.

Note: This does not mean global warming will go away, just the politics will change.

Hopeful note: Once the lefties get off it, there might even be something useful done about it.
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Re: Recent published research on global warming

Post by Witness » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:04 am

Electricity generated by renewables:

Image

You can compare fossil fuels / nuclear / renewables on this interactive map: http://www.gocompare.com/gas-and-electr ... the-world/.

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Re: Recent published research on global warming

Post by sparks » Wed Sep 20, 2017 3:45 am

Doubting the reality of AGW will go on right up until the end.

Fools. Damned fools.
You can lead them to knowledge, but you can't make them think.

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Re: Recent published research on global warming

Post by Doctor X » Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:11 am

You have people "doubting" evolution and the Moon Landing.

A "process," dear sparks. . . .

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Re: Recent published research on global warming

Post by Grammatron » Thu Sep 21, 2017 2:40 am

Ahem, Flat Earth.

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Re: Recent published research on global warming

Post by Doctor X » Thu Sep 21, 2017 3:28 am

Ahem, "100,000 > MILLIONS!" [Stop that!--Ed.]

Okay . . . okay. . . .

--J.D.

P.S. Though I had this discussion with a 後輩 [Stop it!--Ed.] who, unlike My Humble--Yet MagNIfIcent--Self, is not allergic to mathematics on how people block out what they do not understand if it does not "make sense" to them. Classic example which, apparently, drives Interwebz flames: "Does 0.99999999 = 1?"

To the Maths Intolerant such as myself, that "doesn't make sense . . . since . . . you never . . . never . . . get to 1 'cause . . . infinity . . . Xeno . . . assimhotep things . . . fuck you!"

The proof proves rather simple [He can grasp it.--Ed.], and Me Minion yawned over it. To even discuss it is a waste of time for a mathematician.

"But is WEIRD!! I Don't Get it!" standard of thinking rejects it. I suffer'd from a similar difficulty years ago when a mathematician finally sighed and rhetorically asked, "you've still not come to accept calculus, right?"

"It's against my religion!"

Nevertheless, what I "believe" or "think" or "seems weird" and all of that remains irrelevant to what is. Sort of like thinking "millions" is less than "hundred thousands."

I digress.

Yet do I provide a further revelation into the nature of fractured thinking. I am awesome in that way. Like the way Tom Brady [Get on with it!--Ed.]

Such things challenge the way people came to view the world. Some men . . . you just cannot reach . . . better, some just do not want to be "reached." Some have no problem changing their view. Rare. Helps to be in science or a similar field, but even then prejudices cling.

Global Warming, in my experience, challenges two things: a religious and then a political world-view. These can mix of course. Much of the St. Sean types suffer from the religious need to believe the Earth was created for man, and therefore man can do whatever he wants with it provided he burns a heathen or two, of course. The World is Perfect and will be so until Junior comes down and burns more heathens and gives You, His Chosen, Their Shit. Also, science and math are hard, and if I study them sufficiently to debate climate then I might learn the Earth is not, actually, 6,000 years old and even Cunt Coulter evolved. From blob of discarded santorum presumably.

*Takes Moment to Add "santorum" to Spell-Check Dictionary*

I might learn that the dead do not rise, miracles do not happen, and I might be wrong about All Sorts of Things I Grew Up Believing.

The political is "well, THEY believe it so I MUST oppose it!"

Who "believes" in Climate Change? LIBURALS AND SURRENDER MONKEYS! People who HATE Junior! People who tell me I am wrong about my thinking and whether or not I can call a waiter "scumbag!"

IF THEY ARE RIGHT ABOUT CLIMATE MAYBE SEX IS RAPE?!!1!!

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Re: Recent published research on global warming

Post by Anaxagoras » Thu Sep 21, 2017 3:50 am

Doctor X wrote:The political is "well, THEY believe it so I MUST oppose it!"

Who "believes" in Climate Change? LIBURALS AND SURRENDER MONKEYS! People who HATE Junior! People who tell me I am wrong about my thinking and whether or not I can call a waiter "scumbag!"

IF THEY ARE RIGHT ABOUT CLIMATE MAYBE SEX IS RAPE?!!1!!

In the Korean rain.
I forget exactly where I heard it (probably on a podcast; I listen to them during my commute) but apparently when Al Gore made a movie about it, that was a turning point that turned it into a partisan issue. I don't think that was Gore's intention, but you know what they say about intentions. Prior to that you could find plenty of "mainstream" Republicans who believed in Climate Change and even talked about it publicly. Some even made it a campaign issue. Not anymore. Those who do believe it tend to keep it to themselves now, and certainly wouldn't campaign on it.

But yeah, basically when Gore became the most recognizable public advocate for it, it became a Democrat issue to be opposed by Republicans. Not overnight, it took a few more election cycles for all Republicans to realize that their base was too opposed to this to make it politically worthwhile, but eventually it became polarized and politicized.
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Re: Recent published research on global warming

Post by Witness » Thu Sep 21, 2017 4:11 am


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Re: Recent published research on global warming

Post by Witness » Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:20 pm

WaPo wrote:Why it’s time to stop calling these hurricane disasters ‘natural’

[…]
The U.S. hurricane policy disaster has its roots in the hijacking of politics by special interests. In a free market, risk is largely communicated through pricing. Smokers pay greater health insurance premiums to cover the added risk of their voluntary activity. In a rational world, premiums in hurricane-prone places would be sufficiently high to reflect the actual risk to the property.

But agitation by coastal property owners has resulted in a rigged system in which states place caps on property insurance premiums, or on the maximum difference between premiums charged to risky and less risky customers, forcing the latter to subsidize the former. Hurricane storm surges and freshwater flooding are covered by the National Flood Insurance Program, and here too agitation has resulted in rates that do not adequately reflect the risk. Congress revamped this program in 2012, only to retract many of those changes in 2014 in response to a backlash from flood-prone homeowners.

On top of this, federal disaster relief, as necessary as it may be, inadvertently subsidizes risk. As a consequence of these subsidies, coastal populations are rising much faster than the general population. Globally, the population exposed to hurricane hazards has tripled since 1970, and the trend shows no signs of abating.
[…]
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/ene ... 0f90f9d680

Will Bruce & ed have to pay more? :twisted:

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Re: Recent published research on global warming

Post by Rob Lister » Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:55 pm

not a lot of time here but that is bullshit. I'll pay more when you pay me more. sometimes it rains, sometimes it hurricanes. That's all there is to that.

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Re: Recent published research on global warming

Post by Doctor X » Sat Sep 23, 2017 1:26 am

Anaxagoras wrote:. . . but apparently when Al Gore made a movie about it, that was a turning point that turned it into a partisan issue. I don't think that was Gore's intention, but you know what they say about intentions. Prior to that you could find plenty of "mainstream" Republicans who believed in Climate Change and even talked about it publicly. Some even made it a campaign issue. Not anymore. Those who do believe it tend to keep it to themselves now, and certainly wouldn't campaign on it.
I wonder, I do not know but I suspect, that the Hannity-Coulter-Limbaugh types who label any and all who disagree with them as "RINOs" and "Liberals" and all of that push them to silence and force them to "doubt" it publicly. The same thing happened to Democrats who supported school vouchers.
But yeah, basically when Gore became the most recognizable public advocate for it, it became a Democrat issue to be opposed by Republicans.
I think you are absolutely correct.

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"It was the criticisms of Doc X, actually, that let me see more clearly how far the hypocrisy had gone."--clarsct
"I'd leave it up to Doctor X who has been a benevolent tyrant so far."--Grammatron
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Shit. That's going to end up in your sig."--Pyrrho
"Try a twelve step program and accept Doctor X as your High Power."--asthmatic camel
"just like Doc X said." --gnome

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