The Official SC "Gun Free Zone" Mass Shooting Thread

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Re: The Official SC "Gun Free Zone" Mass Shooting Thread

Post by Pyrrho » Sun Jun 12, 2016 4:27 pm

Yeah, I'm taking the rest of the day off of everything. See y'all tomorrow.
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Re: The Official SC "Gun Free Zone" Mass Shooting Thread

Post by ed » Sun Jun 12, 2016 5:51 pm

I suppose that you lot realize that this just won it for Trump
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Re: The Official SC "Gun Free Zone" Mass Shooting Thread

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Sun Jun 12, 2016 6:00 pm

ed wrote:I suppose that you lot realize that this just won it for Trump
I don't see that.

At any rate, it'll be great for getting some federal gun control (that wouldn't have prevented it) passed in a hurry.
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Re: The Official SC "Gun Free Zone" Mass Shooting Thread

Post by ed » Sun Jun 12, 2016 6:02 pm

Not a chance
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Re: The Official SC "Gun Free Zone" Mass Shooting Thread

Post by Nyarlathotep » Sun Jun 12, 2016 8:07 pm

ed wrote:I suppose that you lot realize that this just won it for Trump

Nah. I think those predisposed to vote for him are already in his corner. Those predisposed not to, this likely didn't change their minds and there aren't a lot of fence sitters that this could have flipped.

Also, he was probably going to win anyway. So, at best this gave him a few bonus points, for whatever that's worth
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Re: The Official SC "Gun Free Zone" Mass Shooting Thread

Post by Bruce » Sun Jun 12, 2016 8:19 pm

Browsing through info dump on reddit.

The body count makes it the worst mass shooting in US to date.

FBI found info on the shooter and thwarted another attack that was about hot happen in LA ga pride parade.

Both are tied to ISIS.

Not sure how much of these are true. Guess we'll find out over the next couple of days.
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Re: The Official SC "Gun Free Zone" Mass Shooting Thread

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Mon Nov 28, 2016 5:23 pm

Several hurt in rampage at Ohio State University
NY Post
Gunfire erupted at Ohio State University on Monday morning, leaving at least seven people injured — one critically — and sparking an alert from police that ordered students to “run, hide, fight,” according to reports.

...
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Re: The Official SC "Gun Free Zone" Mass Shooting Thread

Post by WildCat » Mon Nov 28, 2016 5:45 pm

Abdul Alhazred wrote:Several hurt in rampage at Ohio State University
NY Post
Gunfire erupted at Ohio State University on Monday morning, leaving at least seven people injured — one critically — and sparking an alert from police that ordered students to “run, hide, fight,” according to reports.

...
This wasn't a shooting, all victims were stabbed or hit by a car. The only shots were from police.
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Re: The Official SC "Gun Free Zone" Mass Shooting Thread

Post by gnome » Thu Dec 08, 2016 8:01 pm

Doctor X wrote:Not to derail the mindless ravings of Yeti the Cunt and Tinkerbell, but it is more of a case of media attention. You are far more likely to be killed in other places. That and campuses are generally large open spaces that anyone can walk on. There may be security at particular buildings, but by and large, they do not lend themselves to checking IDs at every door, every street, every block.

Members are also generally unarmed and security can also be unarmed. That is not a "call to arms" for campuses, it is just the reality.

If you are a loon, who wants attention, who feels "everyone is against you,"--like "those rich students and their rich families"--and also wants attention in his Last Great Gesture of Power, a university campus is a rich pasture.

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That first line in Doc X's post got me thinking about risk management. I couldn't find whether I'd brought this up here--so the question of a "gun free zone".

(ETA: I just now was able to find older posts by me on this last year, so apologies if this is a rehash. My feelings won't be hurt if people don't care to go over it again)

While the media attention would make someone think it was obvious that the vulnerability of those in a gun-free zone to an armed assailant makes it an obviously idiotic policy, I'll make a case for it, if only to see where it goes.

In order for a gun-free zone to be a favorable policy, it must make the occupants safer from harm than allowing firearms. But, I do not think that is such a high threshold to meet. Bear in mind that the particular vulnerability is to the mass shooter, which despite happening all too often, is just the same a low probability event at any given place--something that an opponent of strict gun control might be quick to point out, that the sensationalism of this particular kind of crime in the media unduly drives gun control legislation. Heck, entire conspiracy theories (Sandy Hook "hoax" etc) have as their central goal the publicity of such an event for purposes of justifying stricter laws.

Here's how that fact plays in here--At a given place the risk of a person coming to harm from a shooter arriving with malicious intent (who will obviously disregard the policy) is a real risk, but a small one (in that the risk of such an arrival is low). You might narrow it even further by factoring in how often the possibility of armed people present besides the shooter would improve the situation, which is not always. Regardless, it's undeniably a small risk. Call it AR%

This has to be weighed against the risk of harm to a person coming from firearms present, from situations OTHER than the malicious shooter--from people that would follow the policy if there were one. This can include accidental discharge or "heat of the moment" situations. This too I would say is a small risk. Call it BR%

For a gun-free zone to be a favorable thing, BR% has to be higher than AR%. While both risks are small, I don't think it's at all obvious which one is greater. Who would I respect to make such an assessment? Someone who is expert at risk assessment, and who has to put their money where their mouth is, and that means insurance companies.

If insurance companies prefer a place to be a "gun free" zone, that would indicate highly to me that people with access to more data and better mathematicians have made a fairly good stab at estimating AR% and BR% and decided BR% is higher.

Is there any indication where insurance companies lean on this question?
Last edited by gnome on Thu Dec 08, 2016 8:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Official SC "Gun Free Zone" Mass Shooting Thread

Post by ed » Thu Dec 08, 2016 8:18 pm

The odds of a person carrying in any given locale is sorta small to begin with. As long as booze isn't involved, the danger of being around a person who is armed is close to zero. But that isn't the point. The probability missing is the change in the likelihood of a person intent on mischief NOT going someplace where people are armed.

We have some data, no? How many shootings were in "gun free zones" as compared to zones were firearms were permitted?

BTW, I rarely carry but if I think I am more comfortable with a gun I really pay no heed to what the rule is.
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Re: The Official SC "Gun Free Zone" Mass Shooting Thread

Post by gnome » Thu Dec 08, 2016 8:34 pm

ed wrote:The odds of a person carrying in any given locale is sorta small to begin with. As long as booze isn't involved, the danger of being around a person who is armed is close to zero. But that isn't the point. The probability missing is the change in the likelihood of a person intent on mischief NOT going someplace where people are armed.

We have some data, no? How many shootings were in "gun free zones" as compared to zones were firearms were permitted?

BTW, I rarely carry but if I think I am more comfortable with a gun I really pay no heed to what the rule is.
I would welcome including that factor into the analysis. I am sure an insurance company (if they have competent bean counters) do that.
"If fighting is sure to result in victory, then you must fight! Sun Tzu said that, and I'd say he knows a little bit more about fighting than you do, pal, because he invented it, and then he perfected it so that no living man could best him in the ring of honor. Then, he used his fight money to buy two of every animal on earth, and then he herded them onto a boat, and then he beat the crap out of every single one. And from that day forward any time a bunch of animals are together in one place it's called a zoo! (Beat) Unless it's a farm!"
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Re: The Official SC "Gun Free Zone" Mass Shooting Thread

Post by ed » Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:12 pm

Dunno. I suspect that in the event of a shooting the lawyers sue everyone no matter what.
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Re: The Official SC "Gun Free Zone" Mass Shooting Thread

Post by WildCat » Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:37 pm

gnome wrote:[Who would I respect to make such an assessment? Someone who is expert at risk assessment, and who has to put their money where their mouth is, and that means insurance companies.

If insurance companies prefer a place to be a "gun free" zone, that would indicate highly to me that people with access to more data and better mathematicians have made a fairly good stab at estimating AR% and BR% and decided BR% is higher.

Is there any indication where insurance companies lean on this question?
The flaw in this argument is that the insurance company is only concerned with liability on the part of the insured, not on the relative risk of each scenario.
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Re: The Official SC "Gun Free Zone" Mass Shooting Thread

Post by gnome » Thu Dec 08, 2016 11:33 pm

WildCat wrote:
gnome wrote:[Who would I respect to make such an assessment? Someone who is expert at risk assessment, and who has to put their money where their mouth is, and that means insurance companies.

If insurance companies prefer a place to be a "gun free" zone, that would indicate highly to me that people with access to more data and better mathematicians have made a fairly good stab at estimating AR% and BR% and decided BR% is higher.

Is there any indication where insurance companies lean on this question?
The flaw in this argument is that the insurance company is only concerned with liability on the part of the insured, not on the relative risk of each scenario.
Now THAT is an interesting point, and it definitely matters. So not so simple as their insurance preference. Maybe the answer could be found in their research even if the addition of liability concerns changes the outcome. But now I'm really speculating.

The point is, most people deriding "gun free zones" are only evaluating AR% and aren't thinking too hard about BR%.
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Re: The Official SC "Gun Free Zone" Mass Shooting Thread

Post by ed » Thu Dec 08, 2016 11:40 pm

I submit that the BR is always going to be understated. I'd go so far as to say that it is unknowable, like trump voters.
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Re: The Official SC "Gun Free Zone" Mass Shooting Thread

Post by Witness » Fri Feb 24, 2017 12:48 am

Image

Part of a thread on Imgur about rifles, "for educational purposes". Perhaps other ignoramuses laypersons will find it interesting. And our resident experts chime in. :P

https://imgur.com/t/repost/Q9OIM

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Re: The Official SC "Gun Free Zone" Mass Shooting Thread

Post by Grammatron » Fri Feb 24, 2017 12:55 am

Image

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Re: The Official SC "Gun Free Zone" Mass Shooting Thread

Post by Doctor X » Fri Feb 24, 2017 12:56 am

Is that a laser sight on that musket?!!

THE CHILDREN!!!

--J.D.

P.S. Only three shots a minute?

FAGS!

[youtube][/youtube]
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Re: The Official SC "Gun Free Zone" Mass Shooting Thread

Post by Doctor X » Fri Feb 24, 2017 1:08 am

Though, testing that, these guys:

[youtube][/youtube]

try to get the Japanese Original six shots in two minutes. Long story short, they barely get two the first minute. He speeds up near the end to get the six in two minutes.
Last edited by Doctor X on Fri Feb 24, 2017 1:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Official SC "Gun Free Zone" Mass Shooting Thread

Post by Grammatron » Fri Feb 24, 2017 1:17 am

Doctor X wrote:Is that a laser sight on that musket?!!

THE CHILDREN!!!

--J.D.

P.S. Only three shots a minute?

FAGS!
Good enough for Cornwallis