Brexit News

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Brexit News

Post by ed » Tue Jan 17, 2017 3:29 pm

ONDON — In a speech that could define Britain’s relations with its neighbors for decades to come, Prime Minister Theresa May on Tuesday charted a course toward a clean break with the European Union, calling for the country to abandon the single market after more than four decades of integration with the Continent.

Mrs. May emphasized Britain’s determination to regain control of migration from the European Union and rejected the supremacy of the European Court of Justice, even at the risk of losing unfettered access to the single market, but she also said she wanted to procure tariff-free trade with the bloc and to keep parts of its customs union.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/17/worl ... v=top-news

It seems that she is taking a strong position. I wonder if other EU members might be given a bit of a backbone from this.
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Re: Brexit News

Post by Grammatron » Tue Jan 17, 2017 6:17 pm

ed wrote:
ONDON — In a speech that could define Britain’s relations with its neighbors for decades to come, Prime Minister Theresa May on Tuesday charted a course toward a clean break with the European Union, calling for the country to abandon the single market after more than four decades of integration with the Continent.

Mrs. May emphasized Britain’s determination to regain control of migration from the European Union and rejected the supremacy of the European Court of Justice, even at the risk of losing unfettered access to the single market, but she also said she wanted to procure tariff-free trade with the bloc and to keep parts of its customs union.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/17/worl ... v=top-news

It seems that she is taking a strong position. I wonder if other EU members might be given a bit of a backbone from this.
Must have been a serious speech if the PM went all the way to ONDON to give it.

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Re: Brexit News

Post by Doctor X » Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:45 am

The UK Supreme Court just ruled that the exit requires an Act of Parliament.

So?

Technically, a majority of all parties were opposed to leaving. The referendum was a promise to parts of the Tory party and some of the others. Few expected the majority of Limeys to vote to leave.

Sooooooo . . . if members vote as what they wanted, a majority would vote to stay. But then they would be acting against the referendum. The only "safe" party is the SNP--"Scottish National Party"--since the majority of Scotland voted to "stay." As a bit of an irony, had the SNP won a "Leave UK" referendum a few years ago, Scotland would be "out" of the EU. In fact, the EU helped the UK government by threatening to refuse Scottish admittance into the EU.

So Scotland is the one part that wants to stay.

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Re: Brexit News

Post by Grammatron » Tue Jan 24, 2017 6:42 pm

You seem to actually follow the old world politics Doc, which way is the wind blowing here?

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Re: Brexit News

Post by Doctor X » Tue Jan 24, 2017 8:12 pm

That I do not know yet. The country was divided pretty closely, but regionally, you are going to get clear majorities one way or the other. For example, Scotland pretty much voted Remain. The entire country is represented by SNP save exactly two members of Parliament--one for Labour and one for Conservative. Barring economic collapse in Scotland with the SNP filmed in Gold Orgies or something, I would suspect even these two MPs to support Remain--and oppose a bill to initiate Leave--with the rest of the Scottish MPs. This is about 64 votes.

Add in a few small-fry parties and I suspect you start with nearly 70 votes to "stay."

Neat!

The question is what the individual MPs from the Conservative and Labour parties will do. That may depend on two things: what the party now wants, and what the individual member is facing. Technically, Conservatives favor "Leave" but it was quite divided with a majority expecting to Remain. Would failure to deliver the bill force the resignation of May who supports Leave? It could. Would the party as a whole want that? I do not know.

Worse, an individual MP looking at his constituency polls--if they strongly support a certain way, and his majority was not large . . . you see the pressure to vote with the constituents. If such is for Remain, that can be a problem.

May could allow a "free vote"--allowing her minions to "vote their conscience" and all of that, but that may risk conceding failure to pass a Leave bill.

Buuuuuuttttt . . . "Uncle Jim" Corbyn, the widely unpopular in the House Labour leader, was never a strong supporter of Remain. Now that may have been to hurt the Conservatives. Anyways, his feet are now in the fire. Does he support May's bill? If he does, what I do not know is how divided his party is on the measure. I had thought a decent majority were Remain, and the ability to squash Brexit AND embarrass a leader they hate--he got re-appointed by the large Moonbat party-at-large despite rejection by his MPs--with the possibility of HIM having to leave . . . maybe with May?

Labour could hold the key. I suspect most Labour constituencies support Remain, but I have not investigated that at all. Expect UK press to start reporting on that.

"Very interesting" in that Labour Remain + SNP + Small Fry + say half Conservatives = FAIL which could force May AND Corbyn to resign.

I suppose it could also force a new election. Usually, PMs do that when they want provided they do it within five years. See Thatcher calling a "snap election" right after victory in the Faulklands. The last government--a coalition--enacted a rule for a fixed-term to sooth fears by the coalition partners that once the polls looked positive, the Conservatives would call a new election and dump them. They would be seen as just helping the Conservatives rule for a few months to a year.

I am not aware that that has changed but, frankly, those rules are made to be broken and if May wants an election, she can force it.

If that happens it gets really messy! Conservatives are currently beating Labour in polls. What happens when you toss in Election = Remain/Leave?

I will brew the tea. . . .

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Re: Brexit News

Post by Grammatron » Tue Jan 24, 2017 8:41 pm

This sounds so incredibly messy. Good thing our politics is all sorted out.

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Re: Brexit News

Post by Doctor X » Tue Jan 24, 2017 9:11 pm

Exactly.

I wondered, a LONG time ago, when Cameron was dealing with the issue, how "legal" it would be. The Conservatives have long been divided "over Europe." This persisted after Labour trounced them --> Blair --> but it sounded, to me, like religious conservatives HERE bitching about school prayer and women having careers. Something to tell the "con'tituents" but not something that would ever happen.
Then . . . conservative voters started support "pro" independence parties which started to look not completely racist. LONG story short UKIP was like the Tea Party before we had a Tea Party. It may have been started by an academic who opposed the European Union, but it got taken over by those who have "issues with darkies."

As the economy tanked--and Blair fucked off to leave it in Gordon "What Can" Brown "Not Do for You"'s lap--more people started supporting the idea. Cameron--in opposition--kept his party together, made serious gains, and sort of promised his Anti-Europe/Euro-Skeptic members to "look at it seriously." Their fear was enough "Hate the Darkies" voters plus "Hey, I am sick of Belgium telling us we can't have Nice Things" people would vote Not Conservative.

The UKIP leader has perpetually been elected a member of the European Parliament. So this "protest vote" in England was concerning since Conservatives were more likely to lose votes to UKIP and similar parties. Sort of as if the Tea Party became the Official Jesus Bare-foot and Pregnant Party Jesus: you would not expect San Francisco Democrats to be the ones flocking to them!

Labour got clobbered and lost an election. The problem was the Conservatives were a few seats short of a numerical majority. Finally "almost in power" after nearly 15 years, Euroskeptics wanted to move forward just as some Republicans wanted The Donald to declare Obamacare illegal and arrest Hillary for treason.

Cameron had to form a coalition with the actually liberal/progressive "Liberal Democrats"--or whatever the fuck they call themselves. They had lots of votes, which did not translation into more seats, but enough for a majority. THEY completely oppose leaving the EU, so Cameron could table the problem--"Economy people!"--for five years. He soothed the Euroskeptics by promising a referendum. It will come . . . someday. Polls were Pro-EU so if it ever happened, Remain would win, so sit down and shut the fuck up.

"Why not just vote on it in Parliament? To evoke the Exit Clause? And why are you covered in chocolate sauce?"

Because it would split the Conservatives, Labour would oppose it even if any of them accepted it, it would fail, and the Euro-Skeptics knew this. So they in an even LONGER explanation worked a way to finally get a referendum added to the "Queen's Speech" which is basically the "This is What We Want to Do" the party-in-power does every year.
Right, which brings me to my concern: was it legal? Case in point: Congress + Trump can propose/enact/sign a law creating a yearly "binding" referendum on, say, keeping/removing Supreme Court Justices. As you know, the U.S. Constitution does not allow that. To Leave involves canceling a treaty, and a few pundits muttered that, technically, that requires an Act of Parliament with Royal Assent and all of that. Probably some feathers and whipping some Natives for good measure.

Where was I?

Oh yeah, but since WE ALL KNOW the referendum would come out "Remain" who gives a shit, right? To my knowledge, no one "challenged" the referendum prior to it happening. Because, you know, the polls say it would not even be close.

After that mess, as you put it, Not Loons--as in Not Anti-Trump/Pro-Hillary Types--who actually know the law rather than "Electoral College is FASCISTS"--combined forces and launched legal challenges which . . . another long story short . . . came out that, no, to trigger the exit clause, you have to have Parliament vote on it.

So pull up a chair.

How messy can it get? As above, FAILURE to support the 51ish to 49ish% referendum REJECTS THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE!!!1!! But last I looked, a clear majority of MPs oppose Leave. Labour, already losing, having been wiped out in Scotland, may panic and oppose Leave to then face the charge "Labour HATES YOUR FREEDOMS!"

Same with Conservatives.

Meanwhile, Scotland is very pro-Remain. Would this finally push them to actually vote to separate? I suspect not unless the EU decides to really fuck with the UK by declaring they WOULD accept an independent Scotland. They might do that just to force enough Conservatives/Labour to reject Leave to "preserve the Union."

And you thought a Vice President who believe people "choose the gay," and a President still looking for those "millions" of illegal votes was "weird."

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Re: Brexit News

Post by WildCat » Tue Jan 24, 2017 9:19 pm

And some Brits say the US 2-party system is screwed up.
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Re: Brexit News

Post by Doctor X » Tue Jan 24, 2017 9:33 pm

Funny, the same arguments happen whenever someone "loses" that we have over the Electoral College/Congress. Basically, it is "first-past the post" like we have--he who wins the most votes in a constituency wins it. In the US in a very few places you need an outright >50%.

What that means is you can effectively have one party win 5,000,001 votes and get ALL of the MPs and the other party with 4,999,999 votes gets none depending on how the districts are drawn.

That happened in the British election that resulted in the coalition. The LSD party [Stop that!--Ed.] actually increased its numbers and share of the vote . . . but lost actual seats!

So, people squawk "Proportional Representation." Here is the problem: you become Israel or Italy. Conservatives and Labour may hate one another but they know one another. Having to constantly form coalitions with smaller parties really fucks things up. They do not support it, because they know it will bite them in the ass one day. It also means that a frankly racist party like whatever the fuck the BNP calls itself these days could get a few MPs and, worse, some time a ruling party needs to listen to them. Or someone would actually have to listen to the Greens. As in, like, listen to them.

Real example: in the last election, most predicted another hung parliament. Labour expected to not lose so much in "England" so there was the thought that Labour + SNP could form a coalition government.

Problem: SNP is dedicated to Scottish independence. How the fuck does a Pro-United Kingdom party form a government with a party that wants to end it?

That was a real election issue. Labour leader Ewd Miwwibwand had to answer questions about whether he would join such a coalition.

A REAL mess was avoided where Conservatives would have the most, but not a majority, and the SNP would have enough to allow a Labour + SNP majority which Labour could not accept. It would force a "minority" government of Conservatives with nothing getting done.

You think there is gridlock in Washington? Imagine if Republicans had to depend on the Jesus Party support: "women should be happy being Christian Moms!" Imagine if Democrats had to depend on the "90% upper tax bracket and FREE SHIT TO ALL including illegal immigrants Undocumented Dreamers!"

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Re: Brexit News

Post by Grammatron » Tue Jan 24, 2017 10:08 pm

It does sound similar to our politics, with an added bonus of EU bureaucratic complexity and full-on separatist regions.

It seems both EU and UK have put each other in check. It further seems to me, that in bizarre development UK and US (with Trump in power) appear to have more of an edge if they can get a trade deal.

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Re: Brexit News

Post by Anaxagoras » Tue Jan 24, 2017 10:24 pm

Doctor X wrote: Worse, an individual MP looking at his constituency polls--if they strongly support a certain way, and his majority was not large . . . you see the pressure to vote with the constituents. If such is for Remain, that can be a problem.

May could allow a "free vote"--allowing her minions to "vote their conscience" and all of that, but that may risk conceding failure to pass a Leave bill. .
Easy solution: just whip the vote. Require all Torys to vote the party line. May herself had been for remain, but now it's all "brexit means brexit" so things are different now.
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Re: Brexit News

Post by Doctor X » Tue Jan 24, 2017 10:36 pm

A whip, even a "three-line whip" is not absolute, particularly if enough back-benchers tell you to go fuck yourself. They cannot expel all of those and, if enough, they can bring you down.

What do you know:
Quarter of Labour MPs prepared to defy a party whip on article 50 vote:

About 60 Labour MPs are preparing to defy any party order to vote in favour of triggering article 50, with frontbenchers expected to resign if a three-line whip is enforced.

Party sources said no decision would be made before the government’s legislation was published, but several Labour MPs said they were certain a three-line whip, which is used for the most critical votes, would be imposed on MPs.

Jeremy Corbyn has made clear that Labour MPs would be asked to vote for triggering article 50 because his party does not want to block the Brexit process.

A bill is expected to come before parliament later this week after the supreme court ruled that MPs and peers must have a vote before the two-year formal process for leaving the EU begins. The SNP, the Liberal Democrats and Green MP Caroline Lucas have also said they would vote against article 50 legislation, as has the former Conservative chancellor Ken Clarke.

Several shadow ministers whose constituencies are in areas which are strongly pro-remain have publicly said they would also vote against when a bill is introduced.

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Re: Brexit News

Post by Rob Lister » Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:09 pm

Should we redesign our flag with 51, 52 or 53 stars.

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Re: Brexit News

Post by asthmatic camel » Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:41 am

Well, I think the supreme court ruling was correct but do not expect parliament to make any serious attempt to block Brexit. Mad Uncle Jeremy and his colleagues have said that they respect the result of the referendum, and many Labour constituencies voted strongly in favour of "leave", so I can't see much opposition coming from Labour. We shall have to see what happens but there would be uproar if parliament voted against the instigation of the Brexit proceedings.

The SNP may wish to cause trouble but they only have 54 MPs at Westminster, so there's not much they can do.
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Re: Brexit News

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Wed Jan 25, 2017 10:01 am

He's ba-a-a-a-ack. :)
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Re: Brexit News

Post by Doctor X » Wed Jan 25, 2017 10:19 am

asthmatic camel wrote:Well, I think the supreme court ruling was correct blah . . . blah . . . blah and many Labour constituencies voted strongly in favour of "leave", so I can't see much opposition coming from Labour. We shall have to see what happens but there would be uproar if parliament voted against the instigation of the Brexit proceedings.
Thanks, that I did not know. The Newspaper Read by the People Who Think They Ought to Rule the Country interviewed Labour MPs in constituencies that are pro-Remain.
The SNP may wish to cause trouble but they only have 54 MPs at Westminster, so there's not much they can do.
They are an odd lot in that respect. The most they can hope to do is force a party to hold referendums for independence. In that way, they are not being hypocrites. What are they going to do? Run a candidate in Swansea? Where they are hypocrites is dancing around the fact that the majority of Scots support them and their rather liberal to Moonbat to even Lotus-Eater agenda, which they can only have because they depend on the rest of the UK to protect and subsidize them, but do not support leaving the UK. SNP is sort of hoping that they can force a way of remaining in the EU by . . . magic or something . . . and get a sort of de facto independence without having to pay for it.

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Re: Brexit News

Post by Witness » Fri Jan 27, 2017 3:01 am

Image

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Re: Brexit News

Post by Doctor X » Fri Jan 27, 2017 3:15 am

Meanwhile . . . in London . . . Mad Uncle Jeremy announced plans of a "three-line whip" demand for Labour to vote for the bill the government has introduced to allow triggering Article 50. Technically, if a member does not follow a "three-line whip" without a prior excuse, for which there really is none other than "I actually am pregnant, and my water actually did break, and my legs are in the FUCCCCCCKKKKKKYOOOOUUUUUUUUGETMEMORPHINE!" the member may be "out" of the party. Whether that happens or not depends on the situation and numbers. If enough "back benchers" disagree with a policy, forcing them to support it can threaten the government/opposition "shadow" government.

If the member is a "front-bencher"--part of the government/opposition shadow government--it is expected he will lose his position.

As has happened:
A shadow minister has quit Labour's front bench after being told to back legislation paving the way for the UK's departure from the EU.

Tulip Siddiq said she "cannot reconcile myself to the front-bench position".

Jeremy Corbyn has imposed a three-line whip on his MPs, telling them to back the newly-published bill.
Awesome. With respect to what I blathered above:
Labour MPs expected to vote against the bill at second reading include former leadership challenger Owen Smith, former culture secretary Ben Bradshaw and Cambridge MP Daniel Zeichner.

Da Beeb
As in "Fuck Jeremy." Do not expect these members to be expelled from the party.

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Re: Brexit News

Post by Grammatron » Wed Feb 01, 2017 9:34 pm

Brexit: MPs overwhelmingly back Article 50 bill
MPs have voted by a majority of 384 to allow Prime Minister Theresa May to get Brexit negotiations under way.
They backed the government's European Union Bill, supported by the Labour leadership, by 498 votes to 114.
But the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats opposed the bill, while 47 Labour MPs and Tory ex-chancellor Ken Clarke rebelled.
The bill now faces further scrutiny in the Commons and the House of Lords before it can become law.
Does that mean Brexit incoming or was this expected?

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Re: Brexit News

Post by Doctor X » Wed Feb 01, 2017 9:46 pm

I think the vote was expected given how many Labour were uncomfortable opposing the referendum. There was little indication that the Tories would suffer significant revolts and, as seen, only one turned. For it to fail would have required Remain Tories to vote against the measure. There was no indication near the end that that would happen.

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"Doctor X is just treating you the way he treats everyone--as subhuman crap too dumb to breathe in after you breathe out."--Don
DocX: FTW.--sparks
"Doctor X wins again."--Pyrrho
"Never sorry to make a racist Fucktard cry."--His Humble MagNIfIcence
"It was the criticisms of Doc X, actually, that let me see more clearly how far the hypocrisy had gone."--clarsct
"I'd leave it up to Doctor X who has been a benevolent tyrant so far."--Grammatron
"Indeed you are a river to your people.
Shit. That's going to end up in your sig."--Pyrrho
"Try a twelve step program and accept Doctor X as your High Power."--asthmatic camel
"just like Doc X said." --gnome

WS CHAMPIONS X4!!!! NBA CHAMPIONS!! Stanley Cup! SB CHAMPIONS X5!!!!!