Brexit News

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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Re: Brexit News

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Mon May 01, 2017 10:32 pm

Another issue about EU membership.

Already posted by me over by our British buddies, but no response there yet.

http://skepsforum.prophpbb.com/posting. ... 23&p=15755
Abdul Alhazred wrote:Article about Hungary really stopping immigration, or more precisely refugees crossing Hungary on the way west.

How Hungary Managed To Erase Illegal Immigration In Just A Few Months
Daily Caller (US right wing outfit)

Interesting including technical details.

Allegedly very popular in Hungary itself, though not with other EU member governments.

But for the purpose of this discussion, I'm focusing on this bit:
...

The Hungarian parliament passed legislation in March to put all asylum seekers in container housing along the border, to await legal processing. The move caused outcry among international aid organizations, with Amnesty International calling it a “flagrant violation of international law.”

“Rounding up all men, women and children seeking asylum and detaining them months on end in container camps is a new low in Hungary’s race to the bottom on asylum seekers and refugees,” Gauri van Gulik, Amnesty’s deputy director for Europe, said in a statement.

The government, on the other hand, calls the detention label “misleading” since the asylum seekers have the option to leave and return to their home countries at any point.

“It’s misleading, it’s not detention, most definitely not in respect to the penalty element of it,” Kovacs said.

A number of countries are allegedly prepared to issue an ultimatum for Hungary and Poland this fall to either accept more refugees or leave the union.

...
Emphasis added.

Can the EU afford to throw members out (even if the "deserve" it)?
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Re: Brexit News

Post by Anaxagoras » Wed May 31, 2017 7:14 am

Doctor X wrote:. . . since I see no reason to start a new thread, the PM has called for a snap election in order to improve her majority behind Brexit negotiations.

If the polls hold as they are now, this may destroy Labour, at least finally force out Mad Jeremy. It will also be seen as a referendum on Nicola Sturgeon's attempt to have another referendum on Scottish Independence. See, her SNP won every seat but three in Scotland--Labour, Tory, Social Liberal Demosomethings all have one. IF she loses seats--but keeping the lion's share--that might be seen as a repudiation of her demand for a referendum. If she were to somehow pick up those last three seats, that would be good for the SNP, obviously, but the economy is down in Scotland.

--J.D.
This may be a cliche, but it seems to be true: a month and a half is a very long time in politics.

The polls seem to be tightening.

The pound is falling after a new poll predicted a hung parliament
LONDON — The pound is falling against the euro and dollar on Wednesday after a new poll suggested that next week's election could return a hung parliament.

The Times reports that a constituency-by-constituency poll by YouGov suggests that the Conservatives could lose 20 seats in the general election, while Labour could gain 30.

The Tory party would fall 16 seats short of the 326 needed to control the House of Commons, leaving no one party with overall control of parliament.

The Times admits in its report that the YouGov poll "allows for a wide margin of error" and "suggests that the Tories could get as many as 345 seats on a good night, 15 more than at present." YouGov is also quoted in the piece saying that the forecast is "controversial."

Despite the caveats on the poll, the pound fell immediately against the dollar and euro when the Times' report was released late on Tuesday evening. Sterling has since recovered slightly but is still below where it was before the poll was released.
Wouldn't read too much into one poll, but the average is tightening too.

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2017-39856354

Election is June 8th, a bit more than a week away.



Oh yeah, they always seem to be able to find a good photo to go with the story:
Image

Shitlords. :roll:
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Re: Brexit News

Post by Doctor X » Wed May 31, 2017 7:53 am

Yeah, you have to love the "could be a hung Parliament . . . or the Conservatives could vastly increase their majority!"

Awesome. It could be "いい天気ですねー" or "the Sun did not come up this morning, huge cracks are forming in the Earth's surface, and big rocks are falling out of the sky! Details on these and other stories 25 minutes from now on Action Central News!"*

--J.D.

*[Utterly stolen from George Carlin.--Ed.]
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Re: Brexit News

Post by Anaxagoras » Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:03 am

YouGov is projecting that the Tories will increase their majority:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/07/fi ... et-increa/
Final call poll: Tories lead by seven points and set to increase majority

Labour won the battles of the election campaign, but the Conservatives still look almost certain to win the war

Polls only predict shares of the vote – translating that into seat numbers and government majorities is more difficult – it depends on whether a party is winning or losing votes in the right places. The seven point Conservative lead is the same as at the previous election, but we think it is likely they will nevertheless be returned with an increased majority.

Our Scottish polling for the Times suggest the Tories are outperforming there and will win a good handful of seats from the SNP, and there is also a widespread expectation that they will perform disproportionately well in Labour-held seats that voted for Brexit.

At the start of the election campaign our polls showed a huge Conservative lead. Over the last six weeks that has been gradually whittled away, mostly through increases in Labour support. Whatever the differences between polls (and we are not blind to the fact that there is lots of variation between the figures different pollsters are showing), every company has told the same story of a shrinking Tory margin. But as we go into Election Day, the Conservatives still look set to secure a solid lead in votes and an overall majority. The question is how large.
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Re: Brexit News

Post by Doctor X » Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:10 am

In other words, "we have no fucking idea!"

Why do you hate Freedom/CHILDREN/Apple Pie/sparks' Mom?

Where is that smiley?

--J.D.

P.S. Seriously, the polls are screwed because they look at national trends and NOT very local trends--as in who wins the election. Much of the Labour improvement could be improvement in seats they will already win, for example. It is like Hillary winning Calyfornya by "80 Billions Points Votes!" does not increase the electoral votes she wins.

So there is a lot of quibbling and muttering on this one.
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Re: Brexit News

Post by Doctor X » Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:12 am

Teresa May may have done the unthinkable: "lose" an election when she started with Extinction Level poll majorities over Labour.

--J.D.
Mob of the Mean: Free beanie, cattle-prod and Charley Fan Club!
"Doctor X is just treating you the way he treats everyone--as subhuman crap too dumb to breathe in after you breathe out."--Don
DocX: FTW.--sparks
"Doctor X wins again."--Pyrrho
"Never sorry to make a racist Fucktard cry."--His Humble MagNIfIcence
"It was the criticisms of Doc X, actually, that let me see more clearly how far the hypocrisy had gone."--clarsct
"I'd leave it up to Doctor X who has been a benevolent tyrant so far."--Grammatron
"Indeed you are a river to your people.
Shit. That's going to end up in your sig."--Pyrrho
"Try a twelve step program and accept Doctor X as your High Power."--asthmatic camel
"just like Doc X said." --gnome

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Re: Brexit News

Post by Anaxagoras » Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:44 am

Ouch. Looks like she goofed.
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Re: Brexit News

Post by Doctor X » Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:51 am

She was not as popular as Cameron. Corbin was quite unpopular which mayhaps increased her apparent popularity. Then there is the whole Brexit hanging about.

Former Deputy PM in the Coalition/Leader of the Liberal Democrats just lost his seat. Funny thing: the greatest thing the LDs did was join a coalition to save the country from more years of Labour failure particularly under Brown . . . only to destroy their party in the process.

--J.D.
Mob of the Mean: Free beanie, cattle-prod and Charley Fan Club!
"Doctor X is just treating you the way he treats everyone--as subhuman crap too dumb to breathe in after you breathe out."--Don
DocX: FTW.--sparks
"Doctor X wins again."--Pyrrho
"Never sorry to make a racist Fucktard cry."--His Humble MagNIfIcence
"It was the criticisms of Doc X, actually, that let me see more clearly how far the hypocrisy had gone."--clarsct
"I'd leave it up to Doctor X who has been a benevolent tyrant so far."--Grammatron
"Indeed you are a river to your people.
Shit. That's going to end up in your sig."--Pyrrho
"Try a twelve step program and accept Doctor X as your High Power."--asthmatic camel
"just like Doc X said." --gnome

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Re: Brexit News

Post by Grammatron » Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:53 am

What does this mean for Brexit?

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Re: Brexit News

Post by Nyarlathotep » Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:53 am

Pleased to see that exit polls show UKIP getting zero seats, though
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Re: Brexit News

Post by Doctor X » Fri Jun 09, 2017 2:04 am

Well . . . good question on Brexit.

It has already been triggered. To "untrigger" requires, I believe, unanimous support of all EU members. Good luck. So "what form" depends on how much of the Tory Party is "Hard" versus "Soft." If "Hard" was enough of a majority of the Tory party, they could push for it.

However, current forecasts are that we will have another "hung" Parliament with Tories having 322. With whom do they make a coalition with?

And a government minister is out.

--J.D.
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"Doctor X is just treating you the way he treats everyone--as subhuman crap too dumb to breathe in after you breathe out."--Don
DocX: FTW.--sparks
"Doctor X wins again."--Pyrrho
"Never sorry to make a racist Fucktard cry."--His Humble MagNIfIcence
"It was the criticisms of Doc X, actually, that let me see more clearly how far the hypocrisy had gone."--clarsct
"I'd leave it up to Doctor X who has been a benevolent tyrant so far."--Grammatron
"Indeed you are a river to your people.
Shit. That's going to end up in your sig."--Pyrrho
"Try a twelve step program and accept Doctor X as your High Power."--asthmatic camel
"just like Doc X said." --gnome

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Re: Brexit News

Post by Doctor X » Fri Jun 09, 2017 2:07 am

And Monster Raving Loony Party fails to unseat Corbin. Image

And Lord Buckethead fails to unseat May. Image

Image

A Lord Buckethead would have totally beaten Trump and Hillary.
:freedom:

--J.D.
Mob of the Mean: Free beanie, cattle-prod and Charley Fan Club!
"Doctor X is just treating you the way he treats everyone--as subhuman crap too dumb to breathe in after you breathe out."--Don
DocX: FTW.--sparks
"Doctor X wins again."--Pyrrho
"Never sorry to make a racist Fucktard cry."--His Humble MagNIfIcence
"It was the criticisms of Doc X, actually, that let me see more clearly how far the hypocrisy had gone."--clarsct
"I'd leave it up to Doctor X who has been a benevolent tyrant so far."--Grammatron
"Indeed you are a river to your people.
Shit. That's going to end up in your sig."--Pyrrho
"Try a twelve step program and accept Doctor X as your High Power."--asthmatic camel
"just like Doc X said." --gnome

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Re: Brexit News

Post by Anaxagoras » Fri Jun 09, 2017 2:27 am

Clive Crook in the Irish Examiner:

With leaders like this, Britain should hit the panic button
At a time when Britain’s most pressing need is for competent leadership, it’s saddled with two of the most bungling party leaders in living memory.

Even a well-run government would struggle to control the short-term damage likely to be inflicted by Brexit. Whatever the result of today’s vote, there’s no prospect of a well-run government. On this evidence, exaggerating how much trouble Britain is in would be hard.

British prime minister Theresa May called this snap election — after first suspending a law requiring fixed terms — because she was sure of a huge win.

She had every reason to think so. Jeremy Corbyn is an unreconstructed old-school leftist and every Tory’s dream of a Labour Party leader. His own parliamentarians wanted to ditch him but were overruled by the party’s wider membership.

Ms May duly started with an immense lead. Over the succeeding weeks, Mr Corbyn’s shambles of a Labour Party came much of the way back.

Why? Bizarrely, Brexit has almost nothing to do with it. Labour isn’t challenging the referendum result, partly because so many of its own supporters want out of the European Union, and its position on how to manage Brexit is as vague as the Tories’.

Labour’s remarkable traction during the campaign also wasn’t because Mr Corbyn came up with a compelling election manifesto and sold it pretty well. Quite the opposite: Content and marketing were fully as bad as the Tories could have wished.

Nationalise this, nationalise that, make higher education free, pour resources into every kind of public service, and no we aren’t quite sure what all of this will cost.

As this farcical programme was put to voters, the Tory lead should have increased, not dwindled. Ms May is the reason why this didn’t happen. And sadly for the UK, her failure wasn’t an error of strategy — errors of strategy can be put right — so much as plain political incompetence.

With Labour marching briskly hard-left, Ms May tried to follow the example of her predecessor, David Cameron, and move the Conservatives further to the middle of British politics.

A pro-market, pro-capitalist party can strengthen its appeal by addressing rising inequality and economic insecurity. There’s no contradiction in that: Purblind statism isn’t the only way to confront those issues.

But instead of championing a solidly pro-market centrism, Ms May adopted a semi-skimmed leftism heavy on industrial-policy meddling and other piecemeal dirigisme.

That went down badly not because voters are opposed to piecemeal dirigisme — many quite like it — but because it forced her to be vague and non-committal while standing in front of posters saying “strong and stable leadership.” Her refusal to debate Mr Corbyn head-to-head didn’t look all that strong either.

Her single biggest mistake was to announce and then immediately take back a plan to make old people with assets pay more toward their care at the end of their lives.

Again, please note, the idea wasn’t wrong in principle. Households of modest means shouldn’t have to pay higher taxes so that large inheritances can pass to the heirs of the well-situated.

But Ms May had no right to be surprised by the hostile reaction — such policies are always unpopular. Worst of all was her decision to retreat, deny, and dither in response. Strong and stable, my foot.
It may be that Mr Crook's analysis here is coloured by his own political leanings, but basically I think he is right that Corbyn's strategy was to promise free ponies for all, and that seems to have actually worked with voters. It's like Trump saying we can have 4% growth because ... reasons (don't ask how, just believe). Meanwhile May said you have to eat some spinach too, and when some people complained she quickly changed her proposal while insisting that "nothing has changed" and said only a teensy weensy bit of spinach.

I think another way to look at it is that voters are somewhat fickle, but there is a tendency to revert to the mean. People who have been voting Labour for most of their lives will generally vote Labour if given half an excuse.
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Re: Brexit News

Post by Doctor X » Fri Jun 09, 2017 2:41 am

A former Conservative Party Leader by the hilarious names of "Pickles" reiterated that: Labour promised ponies without any idea how to pay for it. With the increased youth vote--who wants free things--this played well.

Still, May was the "face of the party" and she was not nearly as inspiring. Beating Corbin "at the Dispatch Box" every week was nothing. He is correct that she really fucked up the u-turn. That just looked bad.

Imagine if Trump suddenly stated Obamacare is the way of the future.

--J.D.
Mob of the Mean: Free beanie, cattle-prod and Charley Fan Club!
"Doctor X is just treating you the way he treats everyone--as subhuman crap too dumb to breathe in after you breathe out."--Don
DocX: FTW.--sparks
"Doctor X wins again."--Pyrrho
"Never sorry to make a racist Fucktard cry."--His Humble MagNIfIcence
"It was the criticisms of Doc X, actually, that let me see more clearly how far the hypocrisy had gone."--clarsct
"I'd leave it up to Doctor X who has been a benevolent tyrant so far."--Grammatron
"Indeed you are a river to your people.
Shit. That's going to end up in your sig."--Pyrrho
"Try a twelve step program and accept Doctor X as your High Power."--asthmatic camel
"just like Doc X said." --gnome

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Re: Brexit News

Post by corplinx » Fri Jun 09, 2017 2:43 am

Pledging to big brother the internets wasn't a good campaign move?

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Re: Brexit News

Post by Grammatron » Fri Jun 09, 2017 2:52 am

Doctor X wrote:And Monster Raving Loony Party fails to unseat Corbin. Image

And Lord Buckethead fails to unseat May. Image

Image

A Lord Buckethead would have totally beaten Trump and Hillary.
:freedom:

--J.D.
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Re: Brexit News

Post by Anaxagoras » Fri Jun 09, 2017 2:58 am

So if May is out, is it Boris Johnson's turn to lead the Tories?
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Re: Brexit News

Post by corplinx » Fri Jun 09, 2017 3:08 am

The Tories are now lead by a sentient mop?

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Re: Brexit News

Post by Doctor X » Fri Jun 09, 2017 3:18 am

Well, May is not "out" yet.

Though some of the people she knifed--like George Osborne--are already chortling.

It seems it all may depend if she can form a government with the Northern Ireland parties. That being said, she expected to win seats and a very comfortable majority, and--thus far--lost it with at least -10 seats.

--J.D.

P.S. Tories just took Alex Salmond's--former SNP leader--seat. We need a :freedom: for the Scottish flag.

P.P.S. I wish I could find the quote, but the BBC quoted a commentator who "wondered" if Theresa May "picked Hillary Clinton's campaign" and said, "let's go with that!" The comparisons between her and Hillary are rising. You can find a number of quick articles stating that. She ran a very bad campaign against a buffoon.

This is from Conservative M.P.s interviewed.

The sharks are swimming. . . .
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"Doctor X is just treating you the way he treats everyone--as subhuman crap too dumb to breathe in after you breathe out."--Don
DocX: FTW.--sparks
"Doctor X wins again."--Pyrrho
"Never sorry to make a racist Fucktard cry."--His Humble MagNIfIcence
"It was the criticisms of Doc X, actually, that let me see more clearly how far the hypocrisy had gone."--clarsct
"I'd leave it up to Doctor X who has been a benevolent tyrant so far."--Grammatron
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Shit. That's going to end up in your sig."--Pyrrho
"Try a twelve step program and accept Doctor X as your High Power."--asthmatic camel
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Re: Brexit News

Post by Doctor X » Fri Jun 09, 2017 5:05 am

6:00 A.M. London: it will be a hung Parliament. No party can gain a majority. Most likely, Tories with--currently--309 will join a coalition with DUP--"Ulster We Hate Catholics Party"--that currently has 10 seats. 326 is needed for a majority.

This is considered a disaster for May, obviously.

[youtube][/youtube]

--J.D.
Mob of the Mean: Free beanie, cattle-prod and Charley Fan Club!
"Doctor X is just treating you the way he treats everyone--as subhuman crap too dumb to breathe in after you breathe out."--Don
DocX: FTW.--sparks
"Doctor X wins again."--Pyrrho
"Never sorry to make a racist Fucktard cry."--His Humble MagNIfIcence
"It was the criticisms of Doc X, actually, that let me see more clearly how far the hypocrisy had gone."--clarsct
"I'd leave it up to Doctor X who has been a benevolent tyrant so far."--Grammatron
"Indeed you are a river to your people.
Shit. That's going to end up in your sig."--Pyrrho
"Try a twelve step program and accept Doctor X as your High Power."--asthmatic camel
"just like Doc X said." --gnome

WS CHAMPIONS X4!!!! NBA CHAMPIONS!! Stanley Cup! SB CHAMPIONS X5!!!!!