Iran Nuke Deal

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Iran Nuke Deal

Post by ed » Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:14 pm

When the deal was concluded by Obama, the right howled that compliance inspections had to be "planned".

We were reassured that we could trust or otherwise rely on Iran complying.
Iran rejects U.S. demand for U.N. inspector visit to military sites

ANKARA (Reuters) - Iran has dismissed a U.S. demand for U.N. nuclear inspectors to visit its military bases as “merely a dream” as Washington reviews a 2015 nuclear agreement between Tehran and six world powers, including the United States.

U.S. President Donald Trump has called the nuclear pact - negotiated under his predecessor Barack Obama - “the worst deal ever”. In April, he ordered a review of whether a suspension of nuclear sanctions on Iran was in the U.S. interest.

The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, last week pressed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to seek access to Iranian military bases to ensure that they were not concealing activities banned by the nuclear deal.

“Iran’s military sites are off limits... All information about these sites are classified,” Iranian government spokesman Mohammad Baqer Nobakht told a weekly news conference broadcast on state television. “Iran will never allow such visits. Don’t pay attention to such remarks that are only a dream.”

Under U.S. law, the State Department must notify Congress every 90 days of Iran’s compliance with the nuclear deal. The next deadline is October, and Trump has said he thinks by then the United States will declare Iran to be non-compliant.

Under terms of the deal, the international nuclear watchdog can demand inspections of Iranian installations if it has concerns about nuclear materials or activities.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran- ... B918E?il=0

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Re: Iran Nuke Deal

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:30 pm

The only "deal" was Obama personally agreeing to plead Iran's cause at the UN (rescinding sanctions).
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Re: Iran Nuke Deal

Post by ed » Tue Aug 29, 2017 2:13 pm

Yes, so?
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Re: Iran Nuke Deal

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Tue Aug 29, 2017 2:17 pm

They got what they wanted, and there is no "deal" that constrains the Iranian regime at all.
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Re: Iran Nuke Deal

Post by Anaxagoras » Tue Aug 29, 2017 5:10 pm

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/17/us/p ... ml?mcubz=0
Trump Recertifies Iran Nuclear Deal, but Only Reluctantly

WASHINGTON — President Trump agreed on Monday to certify again that Iran is complying with an international nuclear agreement that he has strongly criticized, but only after hours of arguing with his top national security advisers, briefly upending a planned announcement as a legal deadline loomed.

Mr. Trump has repeatedly condemned the deal brokered by President Barack Obama as a dangerous capitulation to Iran, but six months into his presidency he has not abandoned it. The decision on Monday was the second time his administration certified Iran’s compliance, and aides said a frustrated Mr. Trump had told his security team that he would not keep doing so indefinitely.

Administration officials announced the certification on Monday evening while emphasizing that they intended to toughen enforcement of the deal, apply new sanctions on Iran for its support of terrorism and other destabilizing activities, and negotiate with European partners to craft a broader strategy to increase pressure on Tehran. Aides said Mr. Trump had insisted on such actions before agreeing to the consensus recommendation of his national security team.
So, according to President Trump, I ran is complying with the deal.
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Re: Iran Nuke Deal

Post by Grammatron » Tue Aug 29, 2017 5:14 pm

President Trump agreed on Monday to certify again that Iran is complying with an international nuclear agreement that he has strongly criticized, but only after hours of arguing with his top national security advisers, briefly upending a planned announcement as a legal deadline loomed.
....
...according to an official who described internal discussions on the condition of anonymity. The official said Mr. Trump had spent 55 minutes of the meeting telling them he did not want to.
Or none of that happened.

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Re: Iran Nuke Deal

Post by Skeeve » Tue Aug 29, 2017 5:14 pm

Anaxagoras wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/17/us/p ... ml?mcubz=0
Trump Recertifies Iran Nuclear Deal, but Only Reluctantly

WASHINGTON — President Trump agreed on Monday to certify again that Iran is complying with an international nuclear agreement that he has strongly criticized, but only after hours of arguing with his top national security advisers, briefly upending a planned announcement as a legal deadline loomed.
...
So, according to President Trump, I ran is complying with the deal.
Move over Barry, you may be getting company....

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Re: Iran Nuke Deal

Post by Anaxagoras » Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:26 am

The next episode in this saga:

Trump prepares to wound Iran deal — and then save it
The president's national security team finds a way for Trump to wound 'the worst deal ever' without killing it.

Donald Trump’s national security team has unanimously recommended that he decertify the Iran nuclear deal — but that he stop short of pushing Congress to reimpose sanctions on Tehran that could unravel the agreement.

Trump’s team plans to work with Congress and European allies to apply new pressure on the Iranian regime, according to a strategy developed in an Iran policy review led by national security adviser H.R. McMaster. But the strategy assumes the nuclear deal will remain intact for now.

The deliberations ahead of an Oct. 15 deadline to certify Iran’s compliance with the deal, a centerpiece of President Barack Obama’s foreign policy agenda, were described by a half-dozen sources inside and outside the administration who have participated in the internal debate.

As a candidate, Trump described the agreement as “catastrophic” and “the worst deal ever.” But the strategy represents a nuanced approach to one of the most important foreign policy decisions of his early presidency. The goal is to allow the president to demonstrate contempt for the agreement and broadcast a new level of toughness toward the Iranian regime — without triggering the international chaos several of his advisers warn would follow from a total withdrawal from the 2015 deal.

Administration officials cautioned that the strategy has not yet been finalized, and that it could change before the president makes an official announcement.

But Secretary of Defense James Mattis hinted at the approach early Tuesday when he told a congressional panel that he believes the deal is in America’s interest and that Trump should “consider staying in.” Appearing alongside him, Joe Dunford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the agreement has “delayed the development of a nuclear capability by Iran.”
Here's an article about Mattis and Dunford's testimony to congress:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/03/worl ... trump.html
Mr. Mattis told senators on Tuesday that it was in America’s interest to stick with the deal, which Mr. Trump has often dismissed as a “disaster.”

“Absent indications to the contrary, it is something that the president should consider staying with,” Mr. Mattis told members of the Senate Armed Services Committee after being repeatedly pressed on the issue.

The comments were the latest example of how Mr. Trump’s instincts on national security — to threaten North Korea with destruction and tear up an Iran accord that most experts and allies say is working — are running headlong into opposition from his own National Security Council.

But rather than keep those arguments inside the White House Situation Room, where similar battles have played out over many presidencies, Mr. Trump’s key advisers are making no secret of their disagreements with their boss.

Asked on Capitol Hill on Tuesday whether he had changed his view, Mr. Mattis said he supports “the rigorous review that he has got going on right now.”

When that answer did not satisfy the committee, Senator Angus King, an independent from Maine, asked whether the defense secretary thought holding onto the nuclear pact is in the interest of the national security of the United States.

Mr. Mattis, a retired Marine general, paused before replying: “Yes, senator, I do.”

An administration official said that no difference existed between the president’s views and those of his secretary of defense on the Iran deal.

But the evident dissonance between the president and his senior national security advisers has taken on greater consequence in the cases of Iran and North Korea, which are potentially questions of war or peace.
General Dunford testified at the same hearing alongside Mr. Mattis, and while he did not take a position on the Iran deal, his description about whether Tehran is violating the accord was at odds with the administration’s talking points. He said Iran “is not in material breach” of the agreement and that it had “delayed the development of a nuclear capability by Iran.”

White House officials, by contrast, have said that Iran was violating hortatory language in the agreement about fostering better relations, even if it is not reprocessing plutonium and enriching uranium, the two pathways to a bomb.
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Re: Iran Nuke Deal

Post by Doctor X » Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:57 am

Good Cop.

Bad Cop.

Diplomacy.

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Re: Iran Nuke Deal

Post by gnome » Wed Oct 04, 2017 3:02 pm

ed wrote: We were reassured that we could trust or otherwise rely on Iran complying.
I'm not sure trust comes into it. A successful international treaty would not be about the "good nature" of the involved parties--it would be crafted in a manner that it's in both sides' interests to comply, and that there will be consequences to noncompliance.

Iran's interest is pretty clear--the benefit of nuclear power, and not to have sanctions put on them again, or a path back to potential US military strikes. It can't be guaranteed that will restrain them, but nor is it insubstantial.

It's fair to debate those in particular, but "can we trust them" is a huge oversimplification isn't it? I wouldn't "trust" anyone in an adversarial position, but we still need to make deals.
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Re: Iran Nuke Deal

Post by ed » Wed Oct 04, 2017 3:50 pm

Barring an occupation there is a huge element of trust.
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Re: Iran Nuke Deal

Post by gnome » Wed Oct 04, 2017 4:12 pm

I wonder if we're working on two definitions of trust here. Because the OP seems to imply that any element of trust at all would be foolish. I say it depends on the details of the agreement.
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Re: Iran Nuke Deal

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Wed Oct 04, 2017 4:29 pm

The nuke "deal". Not a treaty in any sense.

It was Obama making a "deal" to support Iran's bid at the UN to lift international sanctions. He did that.

Anything beyond that is still to be negotiated (if it is).
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Re: Iran Nuke Deal

Post by gnome » Wed Oct 04, 2017 4:46 pm

Quite a lot has been negotiated beyond that, what are you smoking?
"If fighting is sure to result in victory, then you must fight! Sun Tzu said that, and I'd say he knows a little bit more about fighting than you do, pal, because he invented it, and then he perfected it so that no living man could best him in the ring of honor. Then, he used his fight money to buy two of every animal on earth, and then he herded them onto a boat, and then he beat the crap out of every single one. And from that day forward any time a bunch of animals are together in one place it's called a zoo! (Beat) Unless it's a farm!"
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Re: Iran Nuke Deal

Post by Rob Lister » Wed Oct 04, 2017 4:53 pm

Then you are foolish.

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Re: Iran Nuke Deal

Post by gnome » Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:13 pm

Lay it out for me... are you proposing a maxim that we should never make a deal with a nation with questionable intentions? That just sounds like you can take off the last three words and be done with it.
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Re: Iran Nuke Deal

Post by Grammatron » Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:28 pm

gnome wrote:Lay it out for me... are you proposing a maxim that we should never make a deal with a nation with questionable intentions?
See North Korea.

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Re: Iran Nuke Deal

Post by gnome » Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:44 pm

That isn't really an answer, though. I would expect my statement to be considered a straw man, but if someone agrees to it at face value say so.
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Re: Iran Nuke Deal

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:46 pm

A "deal"?

An enforceable treaty?

Be more specific.
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Re: Iran Nuke Deal

Post by Grammatron » Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:52 pm

gnome wrote:That isn't really an answer, though. I would expect my statement to be considered a straw man, but if someone agrees to it at face value say so.
Countries such as Iran and North Korea are not looking to make a deal to get rid of their nukes. These countries are looking to make a deal to get rid of sanctions that restrict their internal agenda. Without forcing these countries to move to a certain moral and ethical plane you're taking murderous and genocidal assholes at their word, which is worth nothing.