Trade war?

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
User avatar
Grammatron
Posts: 33659
Joined: Tue Jun 08, 2004 1:21 am
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Been thanked: 1762 times

Re: Trade war?

Post by Grammatron » Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:53 pm

It also leaves out consumption of soy beans in China.

User avatar
Anaxagoras
Posts: 22001
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2008 5:45 am
Location: Yokohama/Tokyo, Japan
Has thanked: 1429 times
Been thanked: 1280 times

Re: Trade war?

Post by Anaxagoras » Thu Oct 25, 2018 5:43 am

Unless overall global consumption of soybeans drops, it should end up being a wash. The people who would have bought those Brazilian soybeans will need to find a new seller.
The landed cost of U.S. beans in China is currently similar to Brazilian soybeans even with the 25-percent tariff, but Chinese crushers are reluctant to take U.S. supply as they fear authorities may not approve cargoes.

“The government’s signal on this is clear - do not buy U.S. beans,” said a senior analyst with a major futures brokerage in China.

“Basically, all shipments for the fourth quarter are from Brazil even though prices of Brazilian beans are very high.”

Premiums for Brazilian beans have shot to a record $2.50 a bushel over the November CBOT contract SX8, which was trading at $8.51-1/4 a bushel at 0655 GMT on Wednesday. That compares with zero premium for freshly harvested U.S. soybeans.

Brazil churned out 119.5 million tonnes of soybeans in 2017/18 and exported 76.7 million tonnes, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
So China is willing to pay a $2.50 a bushel premium to avoid buying US soybeans. That probably hurts US farmers of course, but they are paying more for their soybeans. About 30% more apparently. So are they hurting themselves more than they are hurting the US?
A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
William Shakespeare

User avatar
Rob Lister
Posts: 20029
Joined: Sun Jul 18, 2004 7:15 pm
Title: Incipient toppler
Location: Swimming in Lake Ed
Has thanked: 610 times
Been thanked: 605 times

Re: Trade war?

Post by Rob Lister » Thu Oct 25, 2018 12:56 pm

I think we'll survive

Image

Soybean is more versatile than corn. You can make anyfuckingthing with soybeans. Soybean ain't just faggot grandad's tofu anymore. The automotive industry uses alone include biodiesel, motor-oil, hydraulic oil, car seats, tires and more.

User avatar
gnome
Posts: 22241
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2004 12:40 am
Location: New Port Richey, FL
Has thanked: 381 times
Been thanked: 408 times

Re: Trade war?

Post by gnome » Fri Nov 30, 2018 11:09 pm

WildCat wrote:
Fri Jun 01, 2018 1:20 pm
Watch: in a few months deals will be reached, the tariffs will go away, and Armageddon will be postponed yet again.
The only difference this time is the media freakout because it's Trump doing it instead of Obama.
How's that coming along?
"If fighting is sure to result in victory, then you must fight! Sun Tzu said that, and I'd say he knows a little bit more about fighting than you do, pal, because he invented it, and then he perfected it so that no living man could best him in the ring of honor. Then, he used his fight money to buy two of every animal on earth, and then he herded them onto a boat, and then he beat the crap out of every single one. And from that day forward any time a bunch of animals are together in one place it's called a zoo! (Beat) Unless it's a farm!"
--Soldier, TF2

User avatar
WildCat
Posts: 14102
Joined: Tue Jun 15, 2004 2:53 am
Location: The 33rd Ward, Chicago
Has thanked: 34 times
Been thanked: 364 times

Re: Trade war?

Post by WildCat » Fri Nov 30, 2018 11:14 pm

gnome wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 11:09 pm
WildCat wrote:
Fri Jun 01, 2018 1:20 pm
Watch: in a few months deals will be reached, the tariffs will go away, and Armageddon will be postponed yet again.
The only difference this time is the media freakout because it's Trump doing it instead of Obama.
How's that coming along?
Deals have been reached with Canada and Mexico. China is a work in progress, but the USA has the upper hand.
Do you have questions about God?

you sniveling little right-wing nutter - jj

User avatar
ed
Posts: 33438
Joined: Tue Jun 08, 2004 11:52 pm
Title: Rhino of the Florida swamp
Has thanked: 460 times
Been thanked: 788 times

Re: Trade war?

Post by ed » Sat Dec 01, 2018 1:06 am

Rob Lister wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 12:56 pm
I think we'll survive

Image

Soybean is more versatile than corn. You can make anyfuckingthing with soybeans. Soybean ain't just faggot grandad's tofu anymore. The automotive industry uses alone include biodiesel, motor-oil, hydraulic oil, car seats, tires and more.
And Ricin I believe
Wenn ich Kultur höre, entsichere ich meinen Browning!

User avatar
Anaxagoras
Posts: 22001
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2008 5:45 am
Location: Yokohama/Tokyo, Japan
Has thanked: 1429 times
Been thanked: 1280 times

Re: Trade war?

Post by Anaxagoras » Sun Dec 02, 2018 8:37 am

WildCat wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 11:14 pm
gnome wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 11:09 pm
WildCat wrote:
Fri Jun 01, 2018 1:20 pm
Watch: in a few months deals will be reached, the tariffs will go away, and Armageddon will be postponed yet again.
The only difference this time is the media freakout because it's Trump doing it instead of Obama.
How's that coming along?
Deals have been reached with Canada and Mexico. China is a work in progress, but the USA has the upper hand.
Supposedly a temporary truce has been reached. Not sure the US got any significant concessions though.

https://nypost.com/2018/12/01/us-china- ... xi-dinner/

They kicked the can down the road for 90 days.
BUENOS AIRES, Argentina — The United States and China reached a 90-day ceasefire in a trade dispute that has rattled financial markets and threatened world economic growth. The breakthrough came after a dinner meeting Saturday between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the Group of 20 summit in Buenos Aires.

Trump agreed to hold off on plans to raise tariffs Jan. 1 on $200 billion in Chinese goods. The Chinese agreed to buy a “not yet agreed upon, but very substantial amount of agricultural, energy, industrial” and other products from the United States to reduce America’s huge trade deficit with China, the White House said.

The truce buys time for the two countries to work out their differences in a dispute over Beijing’s aggressive drive to supplant U.S. technological dominance.

In another long-sought concession to the U.S., China agreed to label fentanyl, the deadly synthetic opioid responsible for tens of thousands of American drug deaths annually, as a controlled substance.

The White House announcement framed a victory for Trump and his unflinching negotiating tactics, securing a commitment from China to engage in talks on key U.S. economic priorities, with little obvious concession by the U.S. Notably, however, the White House appears to be reversing course on its previous threats to tie trade discussions to security concerns, like China’s attempted territorial expansion in the South China Sea.

“It’s great the two sides took advantage of this opportunity to call a truce,” said Andy Rothman, investment strategist at Matthews Asia. “The two sides appear to have had a major change of heart to move away from confrontation toward engagement. This changes the tone and direction of the bilateral conversation.”
A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
William Shakespeare

User avatar
Witness
Posts: 17231
Joined: Thu Sep 19, 2013 5:50 pm
Has thanked: 2121 times
Been thanked: 2896 times

Re: Trade war?

Post by Witness » Mon Dec 03, 2018 12:56 am

ed wrote:
Sat Dec 01, 2018 1:06 am
And Ricin I believe
Nope:
Wikipedia wrote:Ricin (/ˈraɪsɪn/ RY-sin), a lectin (a carbohydrate-binding protein) produced in the seeds of the castor oil plant, Ricinus communis
Historical note: the fascist black-shirts used to force-feed castor oil (a potent laxative) to their "undesirables".

User avatar
Skeeve
Posts: 10549
Joined: Wed Jun 09, 2004 7:35 am
Has thanked: 69 times
Been thanked: 82 times

Re: Trade war?

Post by Skeeve » Tue Dec 04, 2018 4:29 pm

U.S.-China Trade Truce: The Challenges Ahead

:shock:
The meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Argentina was a success, according to both governments: China pledged to open its market and Washington agreed to postpone raising tariffs. But can China deliver on its promises? Screenshot: CCTV
The rest is behind the WSJ paywall....
Then Skank Of America could start in...

User avatar
Skeeve
Posts: 10549
Joined: Wed Jun 09, 2004 7:35 am
Has thanked: 69 times
Been thanked: 82 times

Re: Trade war?

Post by Skeeve » Tue Dec 04, 2018 4:44 pm

Trump’s China Truce Calms Markets, but He Chooses a Hard-Liner to Lead Talks
WASHINGTON — President Trump cast his trade accord with President Xi Jinping of China as a huge victory for American farmers, automakers and other key political constituencies — statements that helped send volatile financial markets higher on Monday and seemed intended to calm worries about the economic toll of a protracted trade war.

Yet 48 hours after the deal was struck, several big areas of contention remained unresolved and Mr. Trump appointed a veteran trade negotiator with deep skepticism toward China to lead the talks for the United States.
And this is a problem because.....????

(echo answer: "...it was HER TURN!!!!!")
Then Skank Of America could start in...

User avatar
ed
Posts: 33438
Joined: Tue Jun 08, 2004 11:52 pm
Title: Rhino of the Florida swamp
Has thanked: 460 times
Been thanked: 788 times

Re: Trade war?

Post by ed » Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:39 pm

Witness wrote:
Mon Dec 03, 2018 12:56 am
ed wrote:
Sat Dec 01, 2018 1:06 am
And Ricin I believe
Nope:
Wikipedia wrote:Ricin (/ˈraɪsɪn/ RY-sin), a lectin (a carbohydrate-binding protein) produced in the seeds of the castor oil plant, Ricinus communis
Historical note: the fascist black-shirts used to force-feed castor oil (a potent laxative) to their "undesirables".
Notice how I dragged that $10 bill thru the trailer park and got a nibble.

NSA take note.
Wenn ich Kultur höre, entsichere ich meinen Browning!

User avatar
Witness
Posts: 17231
Joined: Thu Sep 19, 2013 5:50 pm
Has thanked: 2121 times
Been thanked: 2896 times

Re: Trade war?

Post by Witness » Tue Dec 04, 2018 11:26 pm

Some Trump flotsam:
Trump Admits His “Incredible” Deal with China Is Bullshit

The president has pulled a complete 180 after even the White House wouldn’t defend his propaganda.

At the conclusion of the G20 summit in Argentina, Donald Trump boasted to reporters that he’d managed to strike an “incredible” trade deal with Chinese president Xi Jinping—one that would go down “as one of the largest deals ever made.” Among other major feats, the ex-Miss Universe proprietor claimed he’d convinced the Chinese to cut tariffs on U.S.-made cars, which would have been a legitimate coup. This, of course, turned out to be so far from the truth that not even the president’s own White House would back it up. China, too, said nothing about lowering tariffs, and Wall Street analysts almost immediately began issuing notes to clients calling bulls--t on the president’s “incredible” deal.

Goldman Sachs, for one, noted that “the actual amount of concrete progress made at this meeting appears to have been quite limited.” Morgan Stanley pointed out that Trump essentially “agreed to pause tariffs without any meaningful concessions on the toughest negotiating points.” And JPMorgan all but called the president a liar and a fraud, writing: “It doesn’t seem like anything was actually agreed to at the dinner and White House officials are contorting themselves into pretzels to reconcile Trump’s tweets (which seem if not completely fabricated then grossly exaggerated) with reality.”
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/12 ... s-bullshit

From The Donald himself:

And this from NAFTA (video at the tweet):


User avatar
gnome
Posts: 22241
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2004 12:40 am
Location: New Port Richey, FL
Has thanked: 381 times
Been thanked: 408 times

Re: Trade war?

Post by gnome » Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:15 pm



Are people here still arguing that this is supposed to be a temporary bargaining ploy? Did Trump get the memo on that?
"If fighting is sure to result in victory, then you must fight! Sun Tzu said that, and I'd say he knows a little bit more about fighting than you do, pal, because he invented it, and then he perfected it so that no living man could best him in the ring of honor. Then, he used his fight money to buy two of every animal on earth, and then he herded them onto a boat, and then he beat the crap out of every single one. And from that day forward any time a bunch of animals are together in one place it's called a zoo! (Beat) Unless it's a farm!"
--Soldier, TF2

User avatar
Grammatron
Posts: 33659
Joined: Tue Jun 08, 2004 1:21 am
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Been thanked: 1762 times

Re: Trade war?

Post by Grammatron » Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:43 pm

I'm not sure I understand your question.

User avatar
WildCat
Posts: 14102
Joined: Tue Jun 15, 2004 2:53 am
Location: The 33rd Ward, Chicago
Has thanked: 34 times
Been thanked: 364 times

Re: Trade war?

Post by WildCat » Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:41 pm

gnome wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:15 pm


Are people here still arguing that this is supposed to be a temporary bargaining ploy? Did Trump get the memo on that?
When did Trump ever propose permanent tariffs? That's what the Democrats call for.
Do you have questions about God?

you sniveling little right-wing nutter - jj

User avatar
gnome
Posts: 22241
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2004 12:40 am
Location: New Port Richey, FL
Has thanked: 381 times
Been thanked: 408 times

Re: Trade war?

Post by gnome » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:05 pm

"It will always be the best way" sounds rather permanent.

For Grammatron--earlier in the thread, it was predicted that Trump did not have a policy of permanent tariffs, that it was a gambit to force others to negotiate and then they would go away.
"If fighting is sure to result in victory, then you must fight! Sun Tzu said that, and I'd say he knows a little bit more about fighting than you do, pal, because he invented it, and then he perfected it so that no living man could best him in the ring of honor. Then, he used his fight money to buy two of every animal on earth, and then he herded them onto a boat, and then he beat the crap out of every single one. And from that day forward any time a bunch of animals are together in one place it's called a zoo! (Beat) Unless it's a farm!"
--Soldier, TF2

User avatar
gnome
Posts: 22241
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2004 12:40 am
Location: New Port Richey, FL
Has thanked: 381 times
Been thanked: 408 times

Re: Trade war?

Post by gnome » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:06 pm

@Wildcat: I'm not asking you to decide Democrats are great. I'm asking you to apply the same standard.
"If fighting is sure to result in victory, then you must fight! Sun Tzu said that, and I'd say he knows a little bit more about fighting than you do, pal, because he invented it, and then he perfected it so that no living man could best him in the ring of honor. Then, he used his fight money to buy two of every animal on earth, and then he herded them onto a boat, and then he beat the crap out of every single one. And from that day forward any time a bunch of animals are together in one place it's called a zoo! (Beat) Unless it's a farm!"
--Soldier, TF2

User avatar
Anaxagoras
Posts: 22001
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2008 5:45 am
Location: Yokohama/Tokyo, Japan
Has thanked: 1429 times
Been thanked: 1280 times

Re: Trade war?

Post by Anaxagoras » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:07 am

I think it's a bargaining ploy probably, but it doesn't work if you don't sell it, make it seem like you really believe it. You can't take anything Trump says at face value.
A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
William Shakespeare

User avatar
Abdul Alhazred
Posts: 71785
Joined: Mon Jun 07, 2004 1:33 pm
Title: Yes, that one.
Location: Chicago
Has thanked: 3429 times
Been thanked: 1259 times

Re: Trade war?

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:13 am

1) A "trade war" isn't really a war. At least this one isn't.
2) Tariffs are by their nature always negotiable.

Whether Trump is handling the situation well or not, those two facts must be taken into account.
Image "If I turn in a sicko, will I get a reward?"

"Yes! A BIG REWARD!" ====> Click here to turn in a sicko
Any man writes a mission statement spends a night in the box.
-- our mission statement plappendale

User avatar
WildCat
Posts: 14102
Joined: Tue Jun 15, 2004 2:53 am
Location: The 33rd Ward, Chicago
Has thanked: 34 times
Been thanked: 364 times

Re: Trade war?

Post by WildCat » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:20 am

gnome wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:06 pm
@Wildcat: I'm not asking you to decide Democrats are great. I'm asking you to apply the same standard.
I am. Democrats want permanent tariffs, the tariff is an end in itself. Trump is using tariffs only as a stick to negotiate a better trade deal. Surely even you want a fair trade deal, yes? How can you ever negotiate that by promising there will be no consequences for their blatantly unfair trade practices?
Do you have questions about God?

you sniveling little right-wing nutter - jj