Trade war?

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Re: Trade war?

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Fri Mar 23, 2018 9:13 am

Anaxagoras wrote:But on the other hand, he's apparently decided he does want one with CHINA!!
It was always about China.

The rest of it is merely "the art of the deal".
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Re: Trade war?

Post by Anaxagoras » Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:18 am

Trump gets South Korean concessions in first trade deal
President Donald Trump has reached the first trade deal of his administration, getting South Korea to make a few changes to a six-year-old pact he said was a horrible deal.

Trump had largely criticized the previous agreement largely because of the U.S.’s auto trade deficit with South Korea, which has grown significantly since the deal went into force in 2012. At his insistence, the two countries launched talks last year to renegotiate the pact.

Senior administration officials Tuesday night outlined the details of the revised U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement, known as KORUS, most of which were announced over the weekend by the South Korean government.

Separately, Seoul won a permanent exemption from a new 25 percent steel tariff imposed by Trump as of last week, although not from a new 10 percent duty on aluminum imports.

The changes to the KORUS agreement include a provision that will double to 50,000 the number of cars each U.S. manufacturer can export to South Korea without having to meet the country’s more stringent safety standards. Others address additional auto regulatory barriers.

“While some of these may seem small individually, altogether these create a suite of outcomes that make it a lot easier for our auto companies to compete on a level playing field there in South Korea,” a senior administration official said.

Those include aligning South Korean environmental testing standards with the United States‘ and recognizing U.S. standards for auto parts, which should make it easier for companies to make auto sales in the market, he said.

Seoul has also agreed to let the United States maintain its 25 percent tariff on light trucks for 20 extra years, instead of phasing it out by 2021 as originally negotiated.

In another area, South Korea is taking steps to make it easier for American-made cars to meet the country’s fuel efficiency standards, U.S. officials said.

Last year, the United States exported about $2.5 billion worth of autos and auto parts to South Korea and imported about $23.9 billion worth of those products from the Asian ally.

South Korea also agreed to reform its custom inspection procedures for determining whether an import meets the necessary “rules-of-origin” to qualify for duty reductions under the pact.

“Oftentimes in the past, Korea has had burdensome and arbitrary inspections for country of origin at the border. It’s been a big problem, not just for cars, but for all kinds of industrial products, even agricultural products and processed foods,” the administration official said.

In exchange for the steel tariff exemption, South Korea agreed to cap its steel exports at 70 percent of the average volume from the past three years on a product-by-product basis. Administration officials said that other countries seeking tariff exemptions would have to agree to similar quota restrictions, but not necessarily at the same levels.
Well, I guess that's a win. If congress approves the deal.
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Re: Trade war?

Post by Anaxagoras » Sun May 20, 2018 9:34 am

China agrees to import more goods and services from US

I guess that means no trade war. Yay.

Exactly how much more is unclear. Agricultural products and energy products were mentioned as specific things they would buy more of.
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Re: Trade war?

Post by Anaxagoras » Fri Jun 01, 2018 12:51 am

The trade war is back on:

‘Today is a bad day for world trade’: Trump slaps U.S. allies with tariffs
President Donald Trump's move to slap penalties on imports from U.S. allies and China is moving the country to the brink of a global trade war — with U.S. consumers, farmers and manufacturers caught in the middle — as the White House tries to wrest concessions from reluctant trading partners.

The Trump administration will impose new duties on steel and aluminum imports from three key trading partners — the European Union, Canada and Mexico — after failing to reach deals with them to address national security concerns related to the imports, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said Thursday.

The decision has implications for farmers in key Midwestern states who will see their exports crimped, consumers who are expected to pay more, workers who may see cost-cutting in export-heavy industries and global relations with crucial trading partners as the U.S. tries to exert pressure on China.

"Today is a bad day for world trade,” said EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström, who tried to persuade the Trump administration to permanently exempt the 28-nation EU from the new tariffs and begin trade negotiations instead.

“Throughout these talks, the U.S. has sought to use the threat of trade restrictions as leverage to obtain concessions from the EU. This is not the way we do business, and certainly not between longstanding partners, friends and allies,” she said.

It also indicates that the administration has given up hope of finishing NAFTA negotiations with Canada and Mexico in the near future. That raises the question whether Trump will have the patience to wait until later this year or possibly even 2019 to get a new agreement, or if he will make good on a campaign promise to pull out of the 24-year-old pact. In addition, Mexico’s presidential elections are just a month away, and a new government may feel populist pressure to avoid giving any concessions to the Trump administration.

Mexico condemned the move and provided a partial list of $3 billion worth of U.S. imports that it will hit with retaliatory duties. The items include manufactured goods like lamps as well as agricultural imports from its neighbor like pork, apples and various cheeses.

"Let me be clear: These tariffs are totally unacceptable," Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said. "For 150 years, Canada has been America’s most steadfast ally."

His government also rolled out plans to retaliate with levies on dozens of imports from the United States of steel and aluminum products; agricultural goods like yogurt, coffee and condiments; and other items like dishwasher detergent, tablecloths, ballpoint pens and after-shave. The action will hit about $12.8 billion of U.S imports — equal to the dollar value of how much in Canadian goods will be slapped with the new tariffs by Trump.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said the EU now had “no choice” but to challenge the U.S. action at the WTO and to proceed with initial plans to retaliate on $3.3 billion worth of U.S. exports including items like yachts, whiskey bourbon, lipstick and orange juice. Those duties are expected to go into effect in mid-June.

Agricultural products make up about one third of the total EU retaliation list in terms of value, with goods like kidney beans, rice, cranberries and peanut butter facing tariffs. The list also hits about $1 billion worth of U.S. iron and steel goods.

Congressional leaders worry about how their constituents will respond to the the domino effects of tariffs, retaliation, higher costs and consumer belt-tightening.

“This action puts American workers and families at risk, whose jobs depend on fairly traded products from these important trading partners. And it hurts our efforts to create good-paying U.S. jobs by selling more ‘Made in America’ products to customers in these countries," said House Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady (R-Texas).
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Re: Trade war?

Post by WildCat » Fri Jun 01, 2018 1:20 am

All the handwringing, as if these are going to be permanent.
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Re: Trade war?

Post by ed » Fri Jun 01, 2018 1:56 am

A note from the world of real people.

Our materials costs have increased 70% thus increasing our overall manufacturing costs by ~50% or so. We haven't quoted everything yet but it is sorta ugly.

Just thought you'd want to know.
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Re: Trade war?

Post by Anaxagoras » Fri Jun 01, 2018 2:15 am

ed wrote:A note from the world of real people.

Our materials costs have increased 70% thus increasing our overall manufacturing costs by ~50% or so. We haven't quoted everything yet but it is sorta ugly.

Just thought you'd want to know.
I'm not surprised. You mean steel mostly, right?

Protectionism to benefit US steel makers hurts US manufacturers who use steel as a raw material.

But you voted for him. Just sayin'.
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Re: Trade war?

Post by ed » Fri Jun 01, 2018 10:30 am

It hurts us internationally. Domestically, not so much.

We actually are capitalizing on inventory we have on hand to reduce a price and pressure a competitor.

ETA. The increase that we have noted, if ongoing, effectively knocks us out of the international market. People will pay a premium for "Made in USA" but there is a limit.
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Re: Trade war?

Post by WildCat » Fri Jun 01, 2018 1:20 pm

Watch: in a few months deals will be reached, the tariffs will go away, and Armageddon will be postponed yet again.
The only difference this time is the media freakout because it's Trump doing it instead of Obama.
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Re: Trade war?

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Fri Jun 01, 2018 2:19 pm

Bottom line: This "trade war" isn't really a war.
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Re: Trade war?

Post by gnome » Sat Jun 02, 2018 6:26 pm

So what kind of deal is Trump hoping to get out of this?

If it's not straight ignorant protectionism, what are we trying to bargain our way to?

That isn't rhetorical. I'm actually trying to give the idea as much of a chance as possible.
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Re: Trade war?

Post by WildCat » Sat Jun 02, 2018 7:43 pm

gnome wrote:So what kind of deal is Trump hoping to get out of this?

If it's not straight ignorant protectionism, what are we trying to bargain our way to?

That isn't rhetorical. I'm actually trying to give the idea as much of a chance as possible.
An even playing field. For example, we have tariffs on Chinese steel from the Obama era. Canada is exploiting that by buying Chinese steel and then selling it to US companies. So we're still using Chinese steel, only we're paying more for it and Canada is profiting from it.
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Re: Trade war?

Post by Doctor X » Sun Jun 03, 2018 4:21 am

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Re: Trade war?

Post by Anaxagoras » Tue Jun 26, 2018 4:06 am

Harley-Davidson, blaming tariffs, will shift some manufacturing overseas
Harley-Davidson, stung by new tariffs, said it will shift some motorcycle production to factories outside the U.S. The motorcycle manufacturer said in a regulatory filing that it's shifting production of motorcycles heading to Europe from the U.S. to overseas factories. EU tariffs on its motorcycles exported from the U.S. have surged from 6 percent to 31 percent.

Harley-Davidson said that it will not raise its prices due to "an immediate and lasting detrimental impact to its business in the region," although the tariffs are adding about $2,200 in costs per motorcycle exported from the U.S. to the EU.

The EU has boosted tariffs on American-made products including Harley-Davidson motorcycles, peanut butter and orange juice in response to President Donald Trump's decision to slap tariffs on European steel and aluminum. The EU's trade chief said last week that it was "left with no other choice" after Mr. Trump imposed tariffs of 25 percent on steel imports and 10 percent on imported aluminum from the EU on June 1.

"In the near-term, the company will bear the significant impact resulting from these tariffs, and the company estimates the incremental cost for the remainder of 2018 to be approximately $30 to $45 million," Harley said in the filing.
Timeline: over the next 18 months

Harley-Davidson said that shifting targeted production from the U.S. to international facilities could take at least nine to 18 months to be completed.

The company is already struggling with falling sales. In January, it said it would consolidate its Kansas City, Missouri, plant into its York, Pennsylvania, facility. U.S. motorcycle sales peaked at more than 1.1 million in 2005 but then plummeted during the recession.

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Re: Trade war?

Post by Anaxagoras » Tue Jul 03, 2018 6:20 am

The Chamber of Commerce weighs in:

Top U.S. business group assails Trump's handling of trade dispute
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce on Monday denounced President Donald Trump’s handling of global trade disputes, issuing a report that argued tariffs imposed by Washington and retaliation by its partners would boomerang badly on the American economy.

The Chamber, the nation’s largest business lobbying group and a traditional ally of Trump’s Republican Party, said the White House is risking a global trade war with its push to protect U.S. industry and workers with tariffs.

The group’s analysis of the harm each U.S. state could suffer from retaliation by U.S. trading partners painted a gloomy picture that could bring pressure on the White House from Republicans ahead of congressional elections in November.

For example, nearly $4 billion worth of exports from Texas could be targeted by retaliatory tariffs, the Chamber said, including $321 million in meat the state sends to Mexico each year and $494 million in grain sorghum it exports to China.

Trump has slapped tariffs on billions of dollars worth of steel and aluminum imports from China, the European Union, Canada and others, prompting retaliation against U.S. products. He is considering extending the levies to the auto sector.
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Re: Trade war?

Post by Anaxagoras » Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:51 am

Tariffs go into effect. It's actually happening.

Trump’s Trade War Against China Is Officially Underway
WASHINGTON — A trade war between the world’s two largest economies officially began on Friday morning as the Trump administration followed through with its threat to impose tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese products, a significant escalation of a fight that could hurt companies and consumers in both the United States and China.

The penalties, which went into effect at 12:01 a.m., will undoubtedly prompt quick retaliation by Beijing. Chinese officials immediately said they would be forced to retaliate, but their statement did not provide specifics. Previously, the Chinese government has said it will tax an equal amount of American exports, including pork, soybeans and automobiles.

The escalation of the trade war from threat to reality is expected to ripple through global supply chains, raise costs for businesses and consumers and roil global stock markets, which have been volatile in anticipation of a prolonged trade fight between the United States and almost everyone else.

On Thursday, President Trump showed no signs of backing down from his fight, saying aboard Air Force One that the first wave of tariffs on $34 billion in goods would quickly be followed by levies on another $16 billion of Chinese products. And Mr. Trump continued to threaten Beijing with escalating tariffs on as much as $450 billion worth of Chinese goods.
I assume that the tariffs are just a means to an end, and his goal is to pressure the Chinese into granting some concessions. I'm not entirely sure whether this is big enough to have a large impact on the economy. Trump probably doesn't want bad economic news during an election year.
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Re: Trade war?

Post by Anaxagoras » Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:58 am

Bloomberg has a live blog:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blo ... velopments

Japanese stocks are actually up on the news.
Image
Why? John Vail, the chief global strategist at Nikko Asset Management has some thoughts:

"Japan will likely benefit from the reduction in Chinese purchases of U.S. goods and services (including tourism by Chinese) resulting from tariff hikes and general anti-U.S. sentiment,'' he said in an emailed statement. "But, investors in Japan will likely still not be positive about the general global trend towards protectionism because Japan is quite reliant, especially in terms of corporate profits, on international trade.''
I suppose Japan could benefit if China and the US only target each other with sanctions. However, Trump has also been talking about imposing tariffs on automobiles, which would hurt the Japanese (even though many Japanese cars sold in the US are actually made in the US, not all of the parts that go into those cars are US-made).
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Re: Trade war?

Post by Doctor X » Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:23 am

Maybe you should buy more American, Anax?

:freedom:

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Re: Trade war?

Post by Grammatron » Wed Jul 25, 2018 10:29 pm

U.S., EU Agree to Resolve Trade Differences
“This was a very big day for free and fair trade,” Mr. Trump said. He said the U.S. and EU would “resolve” the steel and aluminum tariffs he imposed earlier this year and the retaliatory tariffs the EU imposed in response.

He said the EU had agreed “almost immediately” begin buying more U.S. soybeans and that the European bloc had agreed to increase LNG exports from the U.S. The EU will be a “massive buyer” of LNG, Mr. Trump said.

“I had the intention to make a deal today,” said Mr. Juncker. “And we made a deal today. “

Mr. Juncker said the EU and U.S. would strengthen cooperation on energy and look to import more soybeans, as well as other steps. Addressing sanctions, he said there is an understanding that there will there will be no further tariffs amid these negotiations and that the two sides will “reassess existing tariffs on steel and aluminum.”

Mr. Trump also said the U.S. and EU would work “closely together” to reform the World Trade Organization and would launch an “executive working group” to implement their joint agenda.

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Re: Trade war?

Post by Doctor X » Wed Jul 25, 2018 10:39 pm

MAGA, Gram.

MAGA.

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Mob of the Mean: Free beanie, cattle-prod and Charley Fan Club!
"Doctor X is just treating you the way he treats everyone--as subhuman crap too dumb to breathe in after you breathe out."--Don
DocX: FTW.--sparks
"Doctor X wins again."--Pyrrho
"Never sorry to make a racist Fucktard cry."--His Humble MagNIfIcence
"It was the criticisms of Doc X, actually, that let me see more clearly how far the hypocrisy had gone."--clarsct
"I'd leave it up to Doctor X who has been a benevolent tyrant so far."--Grammatron
"Indeed you are a river to your people.
Shit. That's going to end up in your sig."--Pyrrho
"Try a twelve step program and accept Doctor X as your High Power."--asthmatic camel
"just like Doc X said." --gnome

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