Trade war?

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Anaxagoras
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Re: Trade war?

Post by Anaxagoras » Thu Jul 26, 2018 2:08 am

This was a bad day for Detroit's automakers
Investors punished Ford, General Motors and Fiat Chrysler after all three scaled back their 2018 earnings forecasts due to rising prices for raw materials.
GM said higher-than expected jump in commodity costs and unfavorable exchange rates in Brazil and Argentina will cost it an extra $1 billion this year.
The trade penalties have been mentioned in some form on more than 40 percent of the 146 S&P 500 companies that have already reported second-quarter earnings this season.



Detroit automakers had a really bad day Wednesday as investors hammered Ford, General Motors and Fiat Chrysler after all three scaled back their 2018 earnings forecasts due largely to rising prices for raw materials.

General Motors, the largest U.S. automaker, suffered its worst intraday drop in years, falling more than 8 percent despite beating Wall Street estimates. Rival Fiat Chrysler plunged 16 percent after missing earnings estimates, announcing the sudden death of CEO Sergio Marchionne and reducing earnings guidance for the year. Shares of Ford, which announced earnings after the markets closed, were under pressure all day and fell by more than 4 percent in after-market trading.

GM said a higher-than expected jump in commodity costs and unfavorable exchange rates in Brazil and Argentina will cost it an extra $1 billion this year. Ford’s second-quarter earnings plunged by almost 50 percent and the company lowered its 2018 earnings projections.

Ford’s Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks said its commodity costs during the quarter were about $300 million higher from last year, attributing about half of that to the U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum. The tariffs are expected to eat up about $600 million in profit this year, he said.
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Re: Trade war?

Post by Witness » Thu Jul 26, 2018 2:43 am

Anaxagoras wrote:
Thu Jul 26, 2018 2:08 am
This was a bad day for Detroit's automakers
The tariffs are expected to eat up about $600 million in profit this year
Socialist Trump taxing businesses… :P

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Re: Trade war?

Post by Grammatron » Thu Jul 26, 2018 9:18 pm

Europe Averts a Trade War With Trump. But Can It Trust Him?
Even as Mr. Trump cast the meeting on Wednesday as a great success, and offered gratitude to Mr. Juncker, the question is whether the deal represents a meaningful improvement in the severely strained trans-Atlantic alliance, or is simply another example of the unpredictable approach of a president who has spent months mocking and undermining European leaders — even describing the European bloc as a “foe.”

“The question is, how much do you give in to a bully?” asked Maria Demertzis, the deputy director of Bruegel, an economic research institute in Brussels. “This could just be perfunctory, and if it just stops extra tariffs, that’s fine. But you can’t really depend on Trump. His understanding of global trade is bilateral balance, which is as good as arbitrary, given global supply chains. And it depends on what side of the bed he wakes up on tomorrow.”
Just another neutral and unbiased article from NY Times.

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Re: Trade war?

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Thu Jul 26, 2018 11:08 pm

So basically, free trade except for cars?
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Re: Trade war?

Post by Grammatron » Thu Jul 26, 2018 11:30 pm

Abdul Alhazred wrote:
Thu Jul 26, 2018 11:08 pm
So basically, free trade except for cars?
There's nothing "basically" about this IMO.

EU is willing to negotiate because US economy is stronger and those tariffs are worse for EU than USA (not that it's all roses for USA), and ultimately EU and USA working together to force China into a more equal footing is to the benefit of EU and USA.

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Re: Trade war?

Post by Anaxagoras » Thu Jul 26, 2018 11:34 pm

I doubt it. There's always, always, always protectionism for farmers. Every country does it. Trump likes to harp on Canada's tariffs on dairy products. The U.S. does the same thing though. It protects sugar beet farmers from imported sugar. This comes at the expense of industries like candy manufacturers.

For every trade agreement, there's always a few politically connected industries that get exempted.
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Re: Trade war?

Post by WildCat » Mon Aug 27, 2018 5:26 pm

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Re: Trade war?

Post by Witness » Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:05 am

Anaxagoras wrote:
Thu Jul 26, 2018 11:34 pm
There's always, always, always protectionism for farmers. Every country does it.
Just as a remark, and apart from trade.

Running small farms is lots of hard work and doesn't pay much. So if you want to keep a landscape and not see it (re)turn to wilderness, you have to subsidize.

That's what they do in Switzerland, and it's good for tourism. Less so in France where forests are on the rise.

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Re: Trade war?

Post by Grammatron » Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:48 am

Anaxagoras wrote:
Thu Jul 26, 2018 11:34 pm
I doubt it. There's always, always, always protectionism for farmers. Every country does it. Trump likes to harp on Canada's tariffs on dairy products. The U.S. does the same thing though. It protects sugar beet farmers from imported sugar. This comes at the expense of industries like candy manufacturers.

For every trade agreement, there's always a few politically connected industries that get exempted.
Farm subsidies is how a country avoid famine and food shortage.

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Re: Trade war?

Post by Anaxagoras » Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:00 am

Grammatron wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:48 am
Anaxagoras wrote:
Thu Jul 26, 2018 11:34 pm
I doubt it. There's always, always, always protectionism for farmers. Every country does it. Trump likes to harp on Canada's tariffs on dairy products. The U.S. does the same thing though. It protects sugar beet farmers from imported sugar. This comes at the expense of industries like candy manufacturers.

For every trade agreement, there's always a few politically connected industries that get exempted.
Farm subsidies is how a country avoid famine and food shortage.
There's certainly some truth to that up to a point. But then, Canada is equally entitled to make that argument with regard to its own dairy industry.
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Re: Trade war?

Post by Grammatron » Tue Aug 28, 2018 6:30 am

Anaxagoras wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:00 am
Grammatron wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:48 am

Farm subsidies is how a country avoid famine and food shortage.
There's certainly some truth to that up to a point.
Well yeah, but then attempts to find that point arein the infinite between science and politics.
But then, Canada is equally entitled to make that argument with regard to its own dairy industry.
I am not sure any suggesting otherwise. However, USA is equally entitled to protects its own up to a point. Both sides are currently in the process of trying to find a workable agreement. If the deal with Mexico is real it definitely signals that this administration is able to compromise and come to a deal with as side as slandered as Mexico was.

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Re: Trade war?

Post by Doctor X » Tue Aug 28, 2018 7:40 am

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Re: Trade war?

Post by Anaxagoras » Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:27 pm

China’s Trade Surplus With U.S. Hits New Record
U.S.-China trade gap widens to $31.05 billion
Sept. 8, 2018 5:09 a.m. ET

BEIJING—China’s trade surplus with the U.S. hit another record monthly high in August as the world’s second-largest economy faced the threat of more tariffs from the Trump administration.

China’s trade surplus with the U.S. widened to $31.05 billion last month from $28.09 billion in July, while its total trade surplus narrowed, data from the General Administration of Customs showed Saturday.
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Re: Trade war?

Post by sparks » Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:43 pm

"If the deal with Mexico is real it definitely signals that this administration is able to compromise and come to a deal with as side as slandered as Mexico was."

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Re: Trade war?

Post by WildCat » Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:08 am

Anaxagoras wrote:
Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:27 pm
China’s Trade Surplus With U.S. Hits New Record
U.S.-China trade gap widens to $31.05 billion
Sept. 8, 2018 5:09 a.m. ET

BEIJING—China’s trade surplus with the U.S. hit another record monthly high in August as the world’s second-largest economy faced the threat of more tariffs from the Trump administration.

China’s trade surplus with the U.S. widened to $31.05 billion last month from $28.09 billion in July, while its total trade surplus narrowed, data from the General Administration of Customs showed Saturday.
There was a lot of goods leaving China ahead of the tariffs.
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Re: Trade war?

Post by Anaxagoras » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:09 am

Trump tweets Focus Active 'can now be BUILT IN THE U.S.A.' Ford disagrees.
Ford won't be moving production of a hatchback wagon to the United States from China — despite President Donald Trump's claim Sunday that his taxes on Chinese imports mean the Focus Active can be built in America.

Citing Trump's new tariffs, Ford on Aug. 31 said it was dropping plans to ship the Focus Active from China to America.

Trump took to Twitter Sunday to declare victory and write: "This is just the beginning. This car can now be BUILT IN THE U.S.A. and Ford will pay no tariffs!"

But in a statement Sunday, Ford said "it would not be profitable to build the Focus Active in the U.S." given forecast yearly sales below 50,000.

For now, that means Ford simply won't sell the vehicle in the United States. Kristin Dziczek of the Center for Automotive Research said that Ford can make Focuses "in many other plants around the world, so if they decided to continue to sell a Focus variant in the U.S. market, there are several options other than building it in the United States."

In April, Ford announced plans to stop making cars in the United States — except for the iconic Mustang — and to focus on more profitable SUVs. It stopped making Focus sedans at a Wayne, Michigan, plant in May. The plan, said industry analyst Ed Kim of AutoPacific, was to pare down the Focus lineup to Active wagons and import them from China. "Without the tariffs, the business case was pretty solid for that model in the U.S. market," Kim said.

The tariffs changed everything. The United States on July 6 began imposing a 25 percent tax on $34 billion in Chinese imports, including motor vehicles. Last month, it added tariffs to another $16 billion in Chinese goods and is readying taxes on another $200 billion worth. China is retaliating with its own tariffs on U.S. products.
I guess Americans just don't buy many compact-size economy cars these days, and there's not much profit margin in selling them. Pickup trucks and SUVs are where the profits are.
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Re: Trade war?

Post by Doctor X » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:59 am

Compact-size economy cars are for those who lose world wars, Anax.

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