Good guy with a gun

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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xouper
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Good guy with a gun

Post by xouper » Mon Aug 06, 2018 6:12 pm

This is yet another example of the kind of thing that anti-gun zealot Shannon Watts says never happens.

A good guy with a gun stopped a (possible) mass shooting in Florida on Saturday.

https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news ... 908103002/

Where are the national mainstream media reports on this?

If the bad guy had been able to shoot up a bunch of victims, leftist outrage would be all over the national news.

Here's my guess: Since a good guy with a gun prevented that possibility, that ruins the leftist narrative about gun control and thus gets less national media coverage.

As always, Your Mileage May Vary™.

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Re: Good guy with a gun

Post by sparks » Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:21 pm

The point I'd like you to address is this:

Would the good guy with a gun have been necessary if this country had different, nay, more reasonable and enforced gun control laws?

Yes, yes, I know. We're about to go down the rat hole of what exactly constitutes 'more reasonable and enforced' laws. And before we do, I'll admit right up front that I have neither the brains nor the energy to go there.

Just wanted you to think about it is all.
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Re: Good guy with a gun

Post by Grammatron » Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:52 pm

sparks wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:21 pm
The point I'd like you to address is this:

Would the good guy with a gun have been necessary if this country had different, nay, more reasonable and enforced gun control laws?
Yes.

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Re: Good guy with a gun

Post by xouper » Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:19 pm

While I was writing my reply, it seems Grammatron beat me to it. :wink:


sparks wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:21 pm
The point I'd like you to address is this:

Would the good guy with a gun have been necessary if this country had different, nay, more reasonable and enforced gun control laws?

Yes, yes, I know. We're about to go down the rat hole of what exactly constitutes 'more reasonable and enforced' laws. And before we do, I'll admit right up front that I have neither the brains nor the energy to go there.

Just wanted you to think about it is all.
That's a fair and reasonable question.

Perhaps you will be happy to know I have given that question a lot of thought over the years. I am always open to ideas on how to solve the problem of gun violence without infringing the right to have and carry firearms.

Setting aside the conversation about what "more reasonable and enforced gun control laws" might mean . . .

Short Answer: Yes.

I do not believe that "more reasonable and enforced gun control laws" (regardless how they are defined) will prevent bad guys from doing bad things with guns.

Smart-ass answer: When seconds count, the police are mere minutes away.

Inconvenient fact: In other countries, stricter gun control has not stopped the bad guys. Not in Europe, not in Australia, not in Canada, etc.

Recent example in Toronto, Canada: The bad guy who killed two people (and injured a dozen or so more) used a gun that was already illegal to own in Canada. Had there been a good guy with a gun in Toronto in a position to stop Faisal Hussain, the outcome might have been a lot different with fewer people injured or killed.

Does that answer your question?



And now, just for fun, one of my favorite "memes":

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Re: Good guy with a gun

Post by sparks » Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:50 pm

Yes it does. Thanks. Particularly liked the smart ass answer:

"Smart-ass answer: When seconds count, the police are mere minutes away."

However, https://qz.com/1212809/compare-us-mass- ... australia/

There's pages and pages of links, btw. Can't assess their veracity. But it sure looks like countries with tighter gun control suffer fewer mass shootings than we do. :)
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Re: Good guy with a gun

Post by Grammatron » Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:17 pm

sparks wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:50 pm
Yes it does. Thanks. Particularly liked the smart ass answer:

"Smart-ass answer: When seconds count, the police are mere minutes away."

However, https://qz.com/1212809/compare-us-mass- ... australia/

There's pages and pages of links, btw. Can't assess their veracity. But it sure looks like countries with tighter gun control suffer fewer mass shootings than we do. :)
Fewer is more than none and a a good guy with a gun would help when you're in the more-than-none situation.

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Re: Good guy with a gun

Post by xouper » Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:22 pm

sparks wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:50 pm
Yes it does. Thanks. Particularly liked the smart ass answer:

"Smart-ass answer: When seconds count, the police are mere minutes away."

However, https://qz.com/1212809/compare-us-mass- ... australia/

There's pages and pages of links, btw. Can't assess their veracity. But it sure looks like countries with tighter gun control suffer fewer mass shootings than we do. :)
It's true most other countries have fewer mass shootings than the US. However, they have always had fewer mass shootings than the US, even before they instituted stricter gun control, an inconvenient fact which undermines their correlation argument.

I would be remiss if I did not also point out that the article you linked to has many misleading statistics that might lead the uninformed to draw incorrect conclusions about gun control. (Not to mention the many logical fallacies in some of their interpretations of those flawed statistics.)

Example: Perhaps the biggest flaw in that article is their claim that a statistical correlation exists between number of guns and gun violence. That is simply not true when you look at all the data.

Another example: A more honest analysis will compare the homicide rates (and other gun violence) within a country before and after major gun control, and those comparisons generally show no decrease in gun violence.

I have had this conversation many times before, but I am willing to have it again and repost all of it.

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Re: Good guy with a gun

Post by sparks » Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:55 pm

Thanks, but not necessary to repost it etc.

One thing though: How can there be no statistical correlation between guns and gun violence? If gun violence involves guns, then by definition, there is a 100% correlation, no?

As for problems in argumentation and analysis in the linked article, I'll take that as read. As I said, I'm not here to hold up each and every link as the banner of truth.
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Re: Good guy with a gun

Post by WildCat » Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:02 pm

sparks wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:55 pm
Thanks, but not necessary to repost it etc.

One thing though: How can there be no statistical correlation between guns and gun violence? If gun violence involves guns, then by definition, there is a 100% correlation, no?
If there was a correlation then since whites own guns at twice the rate of blacks and Hispanics then the white murder rate would be close to twice the murder rate of blacks and Hispanics, yes?

And more to the point, and I've done this before here with links and everything but I'll just work off the top of my head now because I have to go run an errand. In Illinois we have the FOID card so we know which areas have high gun ownership rates and which ones have lower gun ownership rates. Chicago has by far the lowest rate of gun ownership in the entire state of Illinois, in fact it's 1/3 the rate of gun ownership in the rest of the state. Yet instead of having 1/3 the murder rate of the rest of the state Chicago has a rate over 7 times higher than the rest of the state of Illinois. If there's a correlation, it's a negative one.
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Re: Good guy with a gun

Post by ed » Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:08 pm

sparks wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:55 pm

One thing though: How can there be no statistical correlation between guns and gun violence? If gun violence involves guns, then by definition, there is a 100% correlation, no?

True. I recall having a discussion with Claus years ago and he claimed some sort of victory on the point.

Better stated, there is no correlation between number of guns and murders or violent crimes. I have posted scatter plots a number of times on this and can do so again.

A basic problem is the idea of "sensible gun laws". These things tend to slide over the fact that the "sensible" laws we already have are often not enforced. Chicago is a perfect example. If one is caught with a gun there it is probably illegally obtained and probably stolen.

Federal gun laws are no joke. Decades of imprisonment are possible if the book is thrown at one. The book is rarely if ever thrown in chicago.

So when I hear about "sensible laws" I really hear "further encroachment" and laws that are directed at me, not the bad guys who are, obviously, bad guys and rally don't give a shit about the law. Being bad guys you see.
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Re: Good guy with a gun

Post by sparks » Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:09 pm

"If there was a correlation then since whites own guns at twice the rate of blacks and Hispanics then the white murder rate would be close to twice the murder rate of blacks and Hispanics, yes?"

No. You are invoking a logical fallacy here. Look 'em up. You obviously need the practice.

"And more to the point, and I've done this before here with links and everything but I'll just work off the top of my head now because I have to go run an errand. In Illinois we have the FOID card so we know which areas have high gun ownership rates and which ones have lower gun ownership rates. Chicago has by far the lowest rate of gun ownership in the entire state of Illinois, in fact it's 1/3 the rate of gun ownership in the rest of the state. Yet instead of having 1/3 the murder rate of the rest of the state Chicago has a rate over 7 times higher than the rest of the state of Illinois. If there's a correlation, it's a negative one."

That which is asserted without evidence is easily dismissed without evidence.

Thanks. :)
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Re: Good guy with a gun

Post by xouper » Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:15 pm

sparks wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:55 pm
One thing though: How can there be no statistical correlation between guns and gun violence? If gun violence involves guns, then by definition, there is a 100% correlation, no?
That's a reasonable question.

There are two ways to view this.

You could say, legitimately, if there were no guns, then there cannot be any deaths from guns.

In general, for any object X, there will be no deaths involving object X if there are no object X in existence. So in that sense, there is a correlation.

However, that is merely a tautology and not at all meaningful to the question of how to reduce gun violence.

The other way to view the numbers and correlations are to consider places that have guns and ask do more guns mean more gun crime?

The data clearly show, in general, that is not necessarily the case. (Although it is trivially easy to cherry pick certain places where more guns also have more gun violence, and vice versa.)

Example: If you look at each of the 50 states in the US, the number of guns per capita in each state varies (obviously). But do the states with more guns per capita also have more gun violence per capita? No. Well, some do and some don't. There is no overall correlation.

I could go on and on and on about this, if you are interested.

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Re: Good guy with a gun

Post by Grammatron » Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:15 pm

You all are letting sparks run away with one of the goal posts, he's miles from the stadium now.

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Re: Good guy with a gun

Post by xouper » Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:20 pm

sparks wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:09 pm
WildCat wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:02 pm
If there was a correlation then since whites own guns at twice the rate of blacks and Hispanics then the white murder rate would be close to twice the murder rate of blacks and Hispanics, yes?
No. You are invoking a logical fallacy here. Look 'em up. You obviously need the practice.
Would you please explain what you mean by that?

sparks wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:09 pm
WildCat wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:02 pm
And more to the point, and I've done this before here with links and everything but I'll just work off the top of my head now because I have to go run an errand. In Illinois we have the FOID card so we know which areas have high gun ownership rates and which ones have lower gun ownership rates. Chicago has by far the lowest rate of gun ownership in the entire state of Illinois, in fact it's 1/3 the rate of gun ownership in the rest of the state. Yet instead of having 1/3 the murder rate of the rest of the state Chicago has a rate over 7 times higher than the rest of the state of Illinois. If there's a correlation, it's a negative one.
That which is asserted without evidence is easily dismissed without evidence.

Thanks. :)
The evidence exists and has been posted previously in other threads. It can be posted again here if you are interested.

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Re: Good guy with a gun

Post by xouper » Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:31 pm

Grammatron wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:15 pm
You all are letting sparks run away with one of the goal posts, he's miles from the stadium now.
True.

Some of the conversation has drifted far from the opening post and is thus not relevant to it.


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Re: Good guy with a gun

Post by Giz » Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:42 pm

WildCat wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:02 pm
sparks wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:55 pm
Thanks, but not necessary to repost it etc.

One thing though: How can there be no statistical correlation between guns and gun violence? If gun violence involves guns, then by definition, there is a 100% correlation, no?
If there was a correlation then since whites own guns at twice the rate of blacks and Hispanics then the white murder rate would be close to twice the murder rate of blacks and Hispanics, yes?.
Not only that, but NRA members would be have the highest murder rate in the country, instead of a vanishingly low rate.

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Re: Good guy with a gun

Post by sparks » Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:09 am

Nice Giz. And good point.
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