Counter-intuitive public opinion polls thread

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
User avatar
Abdul Alhazred
Posts: 71712
Joined: Mon Jun 07, 2004 1:33 pm
Title: Yes, that one.
Location: Chicago
Has thanked: 3411 times
Been thanked: 1257 times

Counter-intuitive public opinion polls thread

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:43 pm

Not necessarily big shockers, and with due skepticism toward public opinion polls.

Opening gambit:

Dem pollster: Women are less likely to support abortion rights than men
The Hill
Democratic pollster Celinda Lake said on Friday that women are more likely to oppose abortion rights than men.

“Women are much less likely to be pro-choice," Lake, who is the president of Lake Research, told Hill TV's Joe Concha on "What America's Thinking."

"Women are more religious than men, and so women are slightly less pro-choice than men," she continued.

Various studies have shown that there is not a significant difference between men and women's views on abortion.

...
Image "If I turn in a sicko, will I get a reward?"

"Yes! A BIG REWARD!" ====> Click here to turn in a sicko
Any man writes a mission statement spends a night in the box.
-- our mission statement plappendale

User avatar
Anaxagoras
Posts: 21943
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2008 5:45 am
Location: Yokohama/Tokyo, Japan
Has thanked: 1425 times
Been thanked: 1273 times

Re: Counter-intuitive public opinion polls thread

Post by Anaxagoras » Tue Oct 09, 2018 4:17 am

The content of the article doesn't seem to support the claim though. The only actual poll numbers cited in the article appear to contradict the claim.
A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
William Shakespeare

User avatar
Abdul Alhazred
Posts: 71712
Joined: Mon Jun 07, 2004 1:33 pm
Title: Yes, that one.
Location: Chicago
Has thanked: 3411 times
Been thanked: 1257 times

Re: Counter-intuitive public opinion polls thread

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:07 am

Always the skeptic :)
Image "If I turn in a sicko, will I get a reward?"

"Yes! A BIG REWARD!" ====> Click here to turn in a sicko
Any man writes a mission statement spends a night in the box.
-- our mission statement plappendale

User avatar
Anaxagoras
Posts: 21943
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2008 5:45 am
Location: Yokohama/Tokyo, Japan
Has thanked: 1425 times
Been thanked: 1273 times

Re: Counter-intuitive public opinion polls thread

Post by Anaxagoras » Fri Nov 02, 2018 4:29 am

OK, here's a counterintuitive result:

The Democrats’ Culture Divide
New York's 14th Congressional District is more than 70 percent people of color, and 50 percent Hispanic. Ocasio-Cortez, who was born in the Bronx to a Puerto Rican mother, fit the district’s changing demographics, and neatly fit a larger narrative of a national Democratic Party in which increasing progressivism and diversity go hand and hand.

But a closer examination of the data tells a different story. Ocasio-Cortez’s best precincts were places like the neighborhood where Bonthius and his friends live: highly educated, whiter and richer than the district as a whole. In those neighborhoods, Ocasio-Cortez clobbered Crowley by 70 percent or more. Crowley’s best precincts, meanwhile, were the working-class African-American enclave of LeFrak City, where he got more than 60 percent of the vote, and portions of heavily Hispanic Corona. He pulled some of his best numbers in Ocasio-Cortez’s heavily Latino and African-American neighborhood of Parkchester, in the Bronx—beating her by more than 25 points on her home turf.

Ocasio-Cortez, the young Latina who proudly identifies as a democratic socialist, hadn’t been all but vaulted into Congress by the party’s diversity, or a blue-collar base looking to even the playing field. She won because she had galvanized the college-educated gentrifiers who are displacing those people. “It was the Bernie Bros,” one top Crowley adviser said as he surveyed the wreckage the day after the election. “They killed us.”
So the actual minorities were fine with the old white dude congressman who had been the incumbant for 10 years. It was the progressive college-educated high-earning white people gentrifying the neighborhood who went for the "young Latina" social justice warrior type.

And it isn't just a New York thing:
In San Francisco, London Breed, an African-American politician raised by her grandmother in public housing, barely held off two challengers from the left, both from arguably more privileged backgrounds and both drawing strength from the city’s large and growing population of upscale white progressives. In a recent congressional primary in Boston, Ayanna Pressley, vying to become Massachusetts’ first black congresswoman, beat the longtime liberal stalwart Mike Capuano by running up big numbers in wealthy Cambridge, while losing big in the working-class and immigrant enclaves of Chelsea and Everett.
Again the same thing. (To be sure, these are Democratic primaries we're talking about, not general elections.)

I guess the key word here is probably "college educated" because this seems to mirror the "social justice" politics that dominate on college campuses.
As the party’s attention turns to the presidential nominating season, one of its biggest challenges will be navigating this culture war in its own ranks. The energy at the moment is with the liberal wing, centered around cities and college towns and on the coasts, its members mostly white and college-educated and far to the left on social and cultural issues compared with the rest of the party. But its voting majority is still more blue-collar and diverse, many of whom favor an incremental approach on social issues and who are more interested in preserving the clout of longtime powers like Crowley and Capuano than in notching symbolic victories for the “resistance.”
A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
William Shakespeare

User avatar
Abdul Alhazred
Posts: 71712
Joined: Mon Jun 07, 2004 1:33 pm
Title: Yes, that one.
Location: Chicago
Has thanked: 3411 times
Been thanked: 1257 times

Re: Counter-intuitive public opinion polls thread

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:25 am

The South Bronx versus Riverdale? Exactly what I would expect, knowing those areas.

Since the rebuilding of the South Bronx after all that freelance urban renewal, it's Puerto Ricans on their way up after assimilating "continental" attitudes and blacks who have a strong tendency to work for a living.

Doesn't fit The NarrativeTM of course, but what does?
Image "If I turn in a sicko, will I get a reward?"

"Yes! A BIG REWARD!" ====> Click here to turn in a sicko
Any man writes a mission statement spends a night in the box.
-- our mission statement plappendale