Push Polls vs Results

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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corplinx
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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by corplinx » Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:30 pm

Did Nate Silver certify those?

This weekend they found every latino movie/TV star they could to flood Florida and tell latinos to vote for Dems. Then they have people like Sharpton go into black churches Sunday morning and instruct people to go vote early for Dems as they left church before they went home.

Full court press. I'm impressed.

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by corplinx » Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:23 pm

Self defeating media collusion? Compilations coming out today showing somehow all the Sunday media shows had the same narrative of "why isn't Trump talking about the economy?"

Trump has been talking about the economy forever. The media has just blacked it out.

For people who got to see how the mainstream media got talking points from Hillary through the leaked emails, this kind of sudden "everyone saying the same thing" should be no surprise. I'm open to this being spontaneous, but fool me three hundred times shame on me.

I'm unsure if the implication is, the media is setting up the backpedal for a non-blue-wave where they say "it was the economy" or if this is "he's so racist, he won't even talk about the economy because he's too busy talking about the caravan".

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by Skeeve » Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:05 pm

Last Rasmussen Poll: GOP House Chances Looking Up
The last Rasmussen Reports poll before the election regarding the Congressional races up for grabs has good news for the GOP: The Republican Party leads the Democrats by one point. The poll of likely voters found that 46% would choose the Republican candidate, while 45% would choose the Democrat. 3% of likely voters said they would choose another candidate while 6% were undecided.
Well, we'll see...

:Popcorn:
Then Skank Of America could start in...

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by gnome » Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:34 pm

corplinx wrote:
Sun Nov 04, 2018 3:25 am
I've got the narratives lined up for this week:

GOP takes house:
Deplorables: The good guys win again. Mining salt. Pepe memes.
The media/DNC: stupid hicks were duped by fakenews, and russia!, trump won because he blames immigrants

Democrats take house:
Dems/media: brave new era, Trump soundly rejected by America, is it time for impeachment?, BLUE WAVE, WE TOLD YOU
GOP: Media blacked out stories that hurt Dems (pretty much true), Fraud at polls, illegals voted, yadda yadda

The "blue wave" has already fizzled, Democrats can't even get push polls to say they will win the Senate anymore. Now we're just waiting to see if it's salty snowflakes screaming NOOOOOOO on election night while the kids on 4chan do moonwalk and high fives or if the GOP is going to be sitting around yelling IF IT WEREN'T FOR DEAD VOTERS, WE'DUH WON.
I don't recall EVER seeing a Senate 2018 projection that offered much hope to Democrats.
"If fighting is sure to result in victory, then you must fight! Sun Tzu said that, and I'd say he knows a little bit more about fighting than you do, pal, because he invented it, and then he perfected it so that no living man could best him in the ring of honor. Then, he used his fight money to buy two of every animal on earth, and then he herded them onto a boat, and then he beat the crap out of every single one. And from that day forward any time a bunch of animals are together in one place it's called a zoo! (Beat) Unless it's a farm!"
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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by gnome » Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:39 pm

Skeeve wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:05 pm
Last Rasmussen Poll: GOP House Chances Looking Up
The last Rasmussen Reports poll before the election regarding the Congressional races up for grabs has good news for the GOP: The Republican Party leads the Democrats by one point. The poll of likely voters found that 46% would choose the Republican candidate, while 45% would choose the Democrat. 3% of likely voters said they would choose another candidate while 6% were undecided.
Well, we'll see...

:Popcorn:
One way or the other, doesn't Rasmussen usually predict a "redder" result than the outcome? Not necessarily as a push, but it seems consistent enough that maybe their method has a flaw.
"If fighting is sure to result in victory, then you must fight! Sun Tzu said that, and I'd say he knows a little bit more about fighting than you do, pal, because he invented it, and then he perfected it so that no living man could best him in the ring of honor. Then, he used his fight money to buy two of every animal on earth, and then he herded them onto a boat, and then he beat the crap out of every single one. And from that day forward any time a bunch of animals are together in one place it's called a zoo! (Beat) Unless it's a farm!"
--Soldier, TF2

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by gnome » Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:43 pm

Something that actually seemed like hopeful news (for our political culture, not for any one particular side) when I went to vote on Saturday--everyone was in a pretty good mood. People in line chatting about the voting process in general (generally straying away from discussing particular issues or candidates). It didn't seem like people were there to vote angry or looking at other voters as potential enemies. I think the voting process itself might dampen partisan rage in some way. It's too bad that getting the results kicks it right back up again.

Other notes that don't necessarily indicate anything: the poll workers commented that this was one of their biggest years for early voting, especially for a midterm. They had long lines every day. Also, apparently there were tons of first-time voters. I live in a red-leaning county (Pasco) in a purple state (FL). Though I am in the more populous area of the county.
"If fighting is sure to result in victory, then you must fight! Sun Tzu said that, and I'd say he knows a little bit more about fighting than you do, pal, because he invented it, and then he perfected it so that no living man could best him in the ring of honor. Then, he used his fight money to buy two of every animal on earth, and then he herded them onto a boat, and then he beat the crap out of every single one. And from that day forward any time a bunch of animals are together in one place it's called a zoo! (Beat) Unless it's a farm!"
--Soldier, TF2

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by corplinx » Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:20 pm

Can't wait for this shit to be over since "Gary" in Florida gets SMS messages and phone calls daily still harassing him to vote.

On my work mobile phone.

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by Witness » Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:39 am

To bring an exotic note: today I voted. One of the questions (not formulated that way, but boils down to that): should cows, goats & rams have horns? 8)

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by WildCat » Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:28 am

gnome wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:39 pm
One way or the other, doesn't Rasmussen usually predict a "redder" result than the outcome? Not necessarily as a push, but it seems consistent enough that maybe their method has a flaw.
They were the most accurate in 2016, their final poll had Hillary winning the popular vote by 2% and she won it by 2.1%. Everyone else had her winning by 3-6%.
Do you have questions about God?

you sniveling little right-wing nutter - jj

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by WildCat » Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:29 am

Witness wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:39 am
To bring an exotic note: today I voted. One of the questions (not formulated that way, but boils down to that): should cows, goats & rams have horns? 8)
That's horrifying, horns shouldn't matter it's all in how the cow, goat, or sheep identifies itself.
Do you have questions about God?

you sniveling little right-wing nutter - jj

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:28 am

Witness wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:39 am
To bring an exotic note: today I voted. One of the questions (not formulated that way, but boils down to that): should cows, goats & rams have horns? 8)
Which way did you vote?
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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by xouper » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:20 am

Vegas Oddsmaker makes a last-minute testable prediction.

(I'm quoting the whole thing here — it's not that long — in case it disappears after the election.)

Vegas Oddsmaker Predicts GOP Upset
by Wayne Allyn Root, Posted: Nov 05, 2018 12:01 AM

This is my final column before the midterm election. So, this former Vegas oddsmaker turned national political commentator has a few predictions and common sense observations to make.

Back in 2016 I predicted a Trump victory when no one else did. Every poll showed Trump would lose by a wide margin. Nate Silver of the NY Times predicted Hillary’s chances of winning at 92%. These pollsters make their living by polling actual human beings. I don’t. So how did I know?

Simple. First, size matters. You could see it in the rallies. Trump would attract eight hour lines and 10,000 or more attendees at wild, intense rallies all over America. I should know. I was opening speaker for six Trump campaign events here in Las Vegas.

Meanwhile Hillary was attracting 100 to 200 attendees at a rally here in Vegas. I could fit Hillary’s rallies in my living room. The same story held true across America. That was my first reason for realizing Trump was going to pull a huge upset that few saw coming.

Part Duex was also simple. Trump was “the whisper candidate.” Everywhere I went, people whispered in my ear, “I’m with you. I’m for Trump.” They wouldn’t tell pollsters. They wouldn't put up yard signs. No bumper stickers on their car. No mention of their support of Trump around the office watercooler. But they whispered to me. The pollsters never had a chance.

Don’t look now, but it’s all happening again. Nate Silver says Democrats have a 80%+ chance of winning the House. Cook Report says Democrats will win the House by 40 seats. All the experts say it’s over- Democrats will win. I'll go out on a limb and disagree again.

I see Florida Democrat Governor candidate Andrew Gillum holding a rally with Bernie Sanders and the whole place is empty.

Barack Obama could not fill a high school gym in Milwaukee.

I witnessed firsthand Joe Biden and Obama at separate events here in Las Vegas playing to small crowds.

Meanwhile I was opening speaker for President Trump’s event in Las Vegas last month- with 10,000 waiting in line for hours in a place where no one cares much about politics. This is a phenomenon.

Does that sound like the GOP is losing 40 seats? Dream on delusional Democrats.

Then there’s “the whispers.” Nothing has changed. Trump has fulfilled almost all of his campaign promises. He is the only politician in history who did exactly what he promised. And those same voters are whispering to me again- they love Trump now, more than ever.

Then there’s common sense. The Trump economy is BOOMING.

The latest results are out- 250,000 more jobs last month, far above what was expected. The lowest unemployment in half a century. The number of Americans employed is the highest EVER. Almost 500,000 new manufacturing jobs under Trump. The kind Obama claimed would never happen again. 1000 new manufacturing jobs a day last month- the best results since the 1990's.

And most importantly, wages grew by a remarkable 3.1%- the most in a decade. Who in their right mind would vote against THAT?

That could be why Trump’s approval rating among blacks is now 40%. If only white liberals weren’t blind, deaf and really dumb.

Most importantly, Trump has brilliantly kept the emotional issue of illegal immigration front and center. He wants to block the caravan, end birthright citizenship and make it much harder for illegal aliens to claim asylum. The polls are out- 65% of likely voters in swing districts across the USA agree with Trump. The middle class will come out in record numbers for Trump. Bet on it.

In the 2014 midterm election in Texas 1.7 million voted early. This year early voting in Texas numbered over 4.3 million. With a booming economy and an illegal alien invasion in the headlines, you think they’re coming out for Democrats?

No way Jose.

I'll go out on a limb again. I'll put my gut instincts up against every poll and pollster and political "expert." All of them...all of them...say the House is lost. But they don't have a clue what's happening. I predict they're all wrong again. The Silent Majority is whispering again- and they love Trump. They support Trump. They will reward Trump.

I'll go out on a limb again to predict another upset for the GOP on Tuesday. We will expand our Senate majority by 3 to 6 seats. It will be very close but, the GOP will hold the House. America stays bright red- again

Democrats will be in shock and mourning. The pollsters got it all wrong again.

And Wednesday morning will be the busiest day for psychiatrists and psychologists in the history of America.
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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by gnome » Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:33 pm

Big buzzer for using Trump's made-up 40% poll.

But an interesting question is raised, and deserves attention beyond looking at the 2016 upset election: is rally size a good predictor of electoral success? Let's be the skepticalcommunity, anyone got any data? If it's true that may be something I want to watch in future elections.
"If fighting is sure to result in victory, then you must fight! Sun Tzu said that, and I'd say he knows a little bit more about fighting than you do, pal, because he invented it, and then he perfected it so that no living man could best him in the ring of honor. Then, he used his fight money to buy two of every animal on earth, and then he herded them onto a boat, and then he beat the crap out of every single one. And from that day forward any time a bunch of animals are together in one place it's called a zoo! (Beat) Unless it's a farm!"
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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:41 pm

... is rally size a good predictor of electoral success?
Sorry no evidences, but my intuition is a weak correlation at best.
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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by xouper » Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:41 pm

Nate Silver just increased his projection for today's election that the Dems would take the House.

On Nov. 5, 2018, at 7:06 PM (ET), he projected a 6 in 7 chance (86%).
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fi ... favorites/

Half an hour ago, on Nov. 6, 2018, at 8:04 AM (ET) he projected a 7 in 8 chance (88%).
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... id=rrpromo

Place your bets. :P

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by corplinx » Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:42 pm

it shouldnt be scientifically, but here's the deal...

I made a post here that said Trump beat Hillary because he out-worked her. 2-3 rallies a day for a solid month while she was taking naps and dreaming about her coronation. He out hustled her.

Trump isn't on the ballot for mid-terms.

So yes, I think the rallies mean something, but assuming they mean something for anyone but Trump doesn't work.

The rallies were a key indicator that something was wrong with the presidential race polling. Noone was actually excited about Hillary the candidate. It was the "she's gonna be the first female president" or "she's not him".

Democrats are still not giving people something to vote for other than "we aren't the strawman we accuse others of being, so if you aren't racist, vote for me".

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by corplinx » Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:44 pm

Sargon seems to have noticed the same thing I have, abject panic despite the assurity of pollsters.


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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:45 pm

So yes, I think the rallies mean something, but assuming they mean something for anyone but Trump doesn't work.
In other words, he is applying the lessons that he learned as a professional wrestling impresario.
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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by xouper » Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:49 pm

gnome wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:33 pm
Big buzzer for using Trump's made-up 40% poll.
Are you saying that the latest Rasmussen poll showing 40 percent is made up?


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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by corplinx » Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:54 pm

Abdul Alhazred wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:45 pm
So yes, I think the rallies mean something, but assuming they mean something for anyone but Trump doesn't work.
In other words, he is applying the lessons that he learned as a professional wrestling impresario.
He is turning local races into referendums on him, which should help in some races. "sure, you think local guy is a sack of crap, but do you want to give the country back to the 1 percent growth commies? it's not just about your district, you are helping save AMERICA".

He's nationalizing local races in other to smooth over unexciting candidates. Like Marsha Blackburn the republican empty suit of Tennessee.