Push Polls vs Results

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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Abdul Alhazred
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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:58 pm

I would say the Democrats had already "nationalized" every local race as a referendum on Trump.
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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:07 pm

Image
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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by corplinx » Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:17 pm

On the wrestling metaphor: Beta O'Cuck.

Texas isn't so much as a red state as a 'Texas' state. Texas will elect Democrats just fine as long as they are pro-Texas.

The Democrats have become the party of out-of-state carpet baggers. Beta will be the case study at some point in manipulating the public. He was an overt "push".

Wresting promoters will "push" wrestlers into the spotlight in order to give them a run at being a star. What the media did to Beta, and what Texans soundly rejected, was someone being forced down their goddamn throats by out-of-state carpet baggers. Pushes can fail.

There was a wrestler called Roman Rains that any attempt to push him just made the fans hate him more. The problem with a "push" is, it can backfire. A good promoter cuts their losses early.

I feel sorry for O'Cuck. He has the media portray him as the bold new face of the Democratic Party, hope, change, all the bullshit. And then when it's clear he's toast they start penning editorials on how he blew it.

He would have probably done better without you assholes. Texans might be dumb hicks but they can see straight through how the media try to play kingmaker in Texas.

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by corplinx » Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:19 pm

The media once they realized Beta had no chance:

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by WildCat » Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:37 pm

Beto has a serious case of hangmouth, makes him look dopey.
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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by gnome » Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:47 pm

xouper wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:49 pm
gnome wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:33 pm
Big buzzer for using Trump's made-up 40% poll.
Are you saying that the latest Rasmussen poll showing 40 percent is made up?

I have possibly been bamboozled! Lots of reports from places that usually don't screw up this kind of detail claiming that there was no poll that showed that well.

One hitch: following the link in the tweet, I see how the tracking poll shows overall approval trend, but not the demographic breakout shown. Is that further clicks in somewhere?
"If fighting is sure to result in victory, then you must fight! Sun Tzu said that, and I'd say he knows a little bit more about fighting than you do, pal, because he invented it, and then he perfected it so that no living man could best him in the ring of honor. Then, he used his fight money to buy two of every animal on earth, and then he herded them onto a boat, and then he beat the crap out of every single one. And from that day forward any time a bunch of animals are together in one place it's called a zoo! (Beat) Unless it's a farm!"
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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by xouper » Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:07 pm

gnome wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:47 pm
I have possibly been bamboozled! Lots of reports from places that usually don't screw up this kind of detail claiming that there was no poll that showed that well.

One hitch: following the link in the tweet, I see how the tracking poll shows overall approval trend, but not the demographic breakout shown. Is that further clicks in somewhere?
No clicking necessary. Look at the table in the tweet I posted. Go to the row that says “Total approve” and then across to the column for “black”. The number there is 40.

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by Rob Lister » Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:21 pm

gnome wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:47 pm
xouper wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:49 pm
gnome wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:33 pm
Big buzzer for using Trump's made-up 40% poll.
Are you saying that the latest Rasmussen poll showing 40 percent is made up?

I have possibly been bamboozled! Lots of reports from places that usually don't screw up this kind of detail claiming that there was no poll that showed that well.

One hitch: following the link in the tweet, I see how the tracking poll shows overall approval trend, but not the demographic breakout shown. Is that further clicks in somewhere?
I think what it boils down to is that they hate Trump on principle but a large minority (40%) thinks he's still doing a good job. And honestly, he really is. I'd be curious as to how George W. did among blacks at a similar time. Not curious enough to actually research it though.

I like that the congress is going to be taken by liberals though. I hate that anything gets done in Washington.

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by corplinx » Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:33 pm

Motown had families and fathers with hopes and dreams. And we set macroeconomic policies that killed Motown.

They never wanted a welfare check. They wanted their dignity back. The dignity of being able to provide for your family with a job.

Trump gets it, the media doesn't, and they assume blacks are just confused when the numbers trend up higher than past republicans.

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by gnome » Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:36 pm

I don't know if Trump actually gets it or is just accidentally correct when it's true, because he always announces that he's hugely popular regardless.
"If fighting is sure to result in victory, then you must fight! Sun Tzu said that, and I'd say he knows a little bit more about fighting than you do, pal, because he invented it, and then he perfected it so that no living man could best him in the ring of honor. Then, he used his fight money to buy two of every animal on earth, and then he herded them onto a boat, and then he beat the crap out of every single one. And from that day forward any time a bunch of animals are together in one place it's called a zoo! (Beat) Unless it's a farm!"
--Soldier, TF2

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by Grammatron » Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:39 pm

gnome wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:36 pm
I don't know if Trump actually gets it or is just accidentally correct when it's true, because he always announces that he's hugely popular regardless.
Look at actions and results. Words in politics are worth nothing.

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by xouper » Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:11 pm

gnome wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:47 pm
I have possibly been bamboozled!
When (some unspecified subset of) the mainstream media do things like that for the specific purpose of misleading you, then perhaps they are not your friend.

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by Rob Lister » Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:19 pm

gnome wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:36 pm
I don't know if Trump actually gets it or is just accidentally correct when it's true, because he always announces that he's hugely popular regardless.
That reminds me of Einstien's elevator thought experiment regarding gravity. Fact is, if you can't tell the difference, there isn't one.

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by corplinx » Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:22 pm

--Joe Biden 'Guarantees' Donald Trump Will 'Challenge the Legitimacy' Of The Midterm Elections If GOP Loses (newsweek.com)

Prediction: if the Dems don't take the house, Joe Biden will challenge the legitimacy of the midterms.

It's not like people would fall for some overtly silly ruse about russians hacking the election or something, right?

After all, Democrats are the party of the college educated betters.

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by gnome » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:51 pm

xouper wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:07 pm
gnome wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:47 pm
I have possibly been bamboozled! Lots of reports from places that usually don't screw up this kind of detail claiming that there was no poll that showed that well.

One hitch: following the link in the tweet, I see how the tracking poll shows overall approval trend, but not the demographic breakout shown. Is that further clicks in somewhere?
No clicking necessary. Look at the table in the tweet I posted. Go to the row that says “Total approve” and then across to the column for “black”. The number there is 40.
That pretty much nails it. So there is a poll that says so, and I was mistaken to repeat claims that it was made up.

How consistent is that poll with others? I would like to consider the quality of the information now that I've retracted my error.
"If fighting is sure to result in victory, then you must fight! Sun Tzu said that, and I'd say he knows a little bit more about fighting than you do, pal, because he invented it, and then he perfected it so that no living man could best him in the ring of honor. Then, he used his fight money to buy two of every animal on earth, and then he herded them onto a boat, and then he beat the crap out of every single one. And from that day forward any time a bunch of animals are together in one place it's called a zoo! (Beat) Unless it's a farm!"
--Soldier, TF2

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by gnome » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:54 pm

xouper wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:11 pm
gnome wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:47 pm
I have possibly been bamboozled!
When (some unspecified subset of) the mainstream media do things like that for the specific purpose of misleading you, then perhaps they are not your friend.
I do not think they are my friend. This is just unusually far off reality for serious sources. Not that it never happens, but more common the bias is in spin and selection rather than facially untrue statements.
"If fighting is sure to result in victory, then you must fight! Sun Tzu said that, and I'd say he knows a little bit more about fighting than you do, pal, because he invented it, and then he perfected it so that no living man could best him in the ring of honor. Then, he used his fight money to buy two of every animal on earth, and then he herded them onto a boat, and then he beat the crap out of every single one. And from that day forward any time a bunch of animals are together in one place it's called a zoo! (Beat) Unless it's a farm!"
--Soldier, TF2

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by Giz » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:12 pm

Well, just voted for the first time in the USA. Let's see how everything plays out.

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by gnome » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:27 pm

Rob Lister wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:19 pm
gnome wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:36 pm
I don't know if Trump actually gets it or is just accidentally correct when it's true, because he always announces that he's hugely popular regardless.
That reminds me of Einstien's elevator thought experiment regarding gravity. Fact is, if you can't tell the difference, there isn't one.
There is a difference. At least sometimes, his claims along those lines are factually incorrect. So I conclude he's making them without regard to truth, which means there's no particular significance if one happens to be.
"If fighting is sure to result in victory, then you must fight! Sun Tzu said that, and I'd say he knows a little bit more about fighting than you do, pal, because he invented it, and then he perfected it so that no living man could best him in the ring of honor. Then, he used his fight money to buy two of every animal on earth, and then he herded them onto a boat, and then he beat the crap out of every single one. And from that day forward any time a bunch of animals are together in one place it's called a zoo! (Beat) Unless it's a farm!"
--Soldier, TF2

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by Rob Lister » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:35 pm

Yea, okay.

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by Witness » Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:12 am

Abdul Alhazred wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:28 am
Witness wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:39 am
To bring an exotic note: today I voted. One of the questions (not formulated that way, but boils down to that): should cows, goats & rams have horns? 8)
Which way did you vote?
Against horns. :)