Push Polls vs Results

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:14 am

Because?
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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:16 am

OK here it is.

Watch the real poll results in sort of real time

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/201 ... tions.html
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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by Anaxagoras » Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:57 am

One of those "who gives a damn" stories that the media likes to shovel out on days like this:

82-year-old woman votes for the first time in midterm elections then, dies knowing her vote 'counts'

Yeah, it 'counts' about as much as a fart in the wind. :roll:
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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by xouper » Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:12 am

gnome wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:51 pm
xouper wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:07 pm
gnome wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:47 pm
I have possibly been bamboozled! Lots of reports from places that usually don't screw up this kind of detail claiming that there was no poll that showed that well.

One hitch: following the link in the tweet, I see how the tracking poll shows overall approval trend, but not the demographic breakout shown. Is that further clicks in somewhere?
No clicking necessary. Look at the table in the tweet I posted. Go to the row that says “Total approve” and then across to the column for “black”. The number there is 40.
That pretty much nails it. So there is a poll that says so, and I was mistaken to repeat claims that it was made up.
Not a problem. Who here hasn't made a similar gaff.

One thing this forum has taught me is that when I find a result that confirms my own prejudices and yet seems too good to be true, I should double check other sources. Since I started doing that, I have avoided being bamboozled numerous times.

gnome wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:51 pm
How consistent is that poll with others? I would like to consider the quality of the information now that I've retracted my error.
As I understand it, as a result of their polling methods, Rasmussen tends to be 2 or 3 points skewed in favor of Republicans compared to other similar polls. Other polls I've seen a few weeks ago put Trump's black favorability at 29 percent. So based on my own personal observations, I consider 40 to be optimistic, and not necessarily accurate. Apart from the specific numbers, what seems more significant is the large upward trend over the past two years.

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by Anaxagoras » Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:44 am

Looks like more of a blue ripple than a blue wave shaping up. Republicans have already flipped one senate seat. Democrats have flipped 3 house seats so far. Out of 163 House races called, only 3 have changed parties (all in favor of Democrats)
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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by corplinx » Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:56 am

Midterms go against the president typically. A blue ripple would be "par".

The reddit politics subs are melting down over STUPID RACIST HICKS SHOULDNT BE ALLOWED TO VOTE while the The_Donald farms their salt.

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by corplinx » Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:58 am

Who at the Democrat machine thought it would be good to spend that much money in Florida and Texas?

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by corplinx » Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:20 am

Imagine if they had used all that dark money they flushed down the toilet on Gillum and Beto, and had use it to get more than a slim margin in the house.

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by Anaxagoras » Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:31 am

Kobach appears to be losing in deep red Kansas. Actually, now they've called it.
Laura Kelly topples Kris Kobach in Kansas gubernatorial race
KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Democrat Laura Kelly will be the new governor of Kansas after her campaign focused on bipartisanship and legislative experience prevailed against Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach.

Kelly’s victory, which is projected by NBC and CNN, is seen as a repudiation of former Gov. Sam Brownback’s fiscal management and the divisive rhetoric of President Trump.

Kobach, 52, the Republican candidate, embodied both, but Kansas voters on Tuesday chose a new path in one of the most tightly contested and closely watched races in the country.

Things are starting to break a little better for the Democrats. Net gain of 10 seats so far. roughly half of the races have been called.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng- ... eats#house
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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by Anaxagoras » Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:43 am

Kobach won the republican primary on the back of an endorsement from Trump:
Day ahead of Kansas primary, Trump endorses Kobach for governor over Colyer
President Donald Trump endorsed Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach on Monday, a day before polls close in Kansas in the GOP primary for governor.

The endorsement is a major slight to Gov. Jeff Colyer, who rose to the state’s top office in January after Trump appointed former Gov. Sam Brownback to an ambassadorship.

“Kris Kobach, a strong and early supporter of mine, is running for Governor of the Great State of Kansas. He is a fantastic guy who loves his State and our Country - he will be a GREAT Governor and has my full & total Endorsement! Strong on Crime, Border & Military. VOTE TUESDAY!” Trump said on Twitter.

Kobach called Trump’s endorsement “a huge boost” at a news conference Monday afternoon in Mission. Kobach said the support would help him with undecided voters ahead of the Tuesday primary. He would not answer specifically whether he had personally asked Trump to get involved in the race.
Some predicted this:
Trump's Kobach endorsement could cost the GOP a governor's race in red Kansas
(CNN)President Donald Trump endorsed Kris Kobach ahead of Tuesday's Kansas Republican gubernatorial primary. The endorsement doesn't come as a surprise, but should Kobach win, it could cost the Republican Party a governor's seat in deep red Kansas.
Why?
To start, Kobach, who is Kansas' secretary of state, is mired in controversy.

He served as vice chairman of Trump's Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity, which was set up after the President repeatedly made unsubstantiated claims that widespread voter fraud occurred in the 2016 election. The group's supposed aim was to investigate voter fraud, but it never presented any evidence to support the President's claims. It was eventually shutdown.
Now, Kobach is running for governor of Kansas. Oddly enough, Democrats are welcoming this news and hoping Kobach defeats current Republican Gov. Jeff Colyer in Tuesday's primary. Polls give Kobach a slight edge.
Why would Democrats be rooting for Kobach? He's uniquely positioned to allow a Democrat to win the general election in November.
The idea Kobach is in trouble in a general election is backed up by other data-points. Kobach is one of the least popular politicians in Kansas. A spring 2018 poll from Fort Hays State University, which only used live interviewers, found that Kobach had a net favorability rating of -17 percentage points. Colyer, on the other hand, broke far closer to an even score. Indeed, no one else in the poll besides Kobach was anywhere close to such a negative score.
It's important to note that Kansas is a very Republican state on the federal level. It voted for Trump by over 20 points. It last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 1932.
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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by Nyarlathotep » Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:12 am

Nevada is doing something weird, but I like it.

No results will be released until all ballots have been tallied. We might have to wait until tomorrow to find out results but it means the results will be official, not “projected”
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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by corplinx » Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:20 am

I dig it

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by corplinx » Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:23 am

"Ocasio-Cortez wins House seat, becoming youngest woman elected to Congress"

Well, we know the cuckoo bird the GOP will paint all the house as now.

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by Nyarlathotep » Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:55 am

Was that going to be any different regardless? Other than the SPECIFIC “cuckoo bird”

So far as I can tell all Dems are Nancy Pelosi according to the Republicans and all Republicans are Trump according to the Democrats

Changing the Dem side to Ocasio-Cortez is at most a superficial difference.
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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by Anaxagoras » Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:17 am

Ripple starting to resemble a wave.
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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by corplinx » Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:22 am

More like a blue fart. lol.

For the amount of money put in, the amount of media-entertainment collusion, they could barely scratch par.

Sad.

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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by Anaxagoras » Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:27 am

But Dems lose 3, maybe 4 senate seats. Heitkamp, Donnelly, McCaskill are all out. Bill Nelson is probably out too. Nevada is unkown, so it's possible the Dems could pick up one there, but they've lost at least 2 Senate seats total even if they win every race that hasn't been called yet. 3 or 4 is more likely.
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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by Anaxagoras » Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:30 am

Bill Nelson just conceded in Fla.

So that's a gain of 4 senate seats for republicans at current count. Unless they get lucky in Arizona and/or Nevada
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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by Nyarlathotep » Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:22 am

Anaxagoras wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:27 am
But Dems lose 3, maybe 4 senate seats. Heitkamp, Donnelly, McCaskill are all out. Bill Nelson is probably out too. Nevada is unkown, so it's possible the Dems could pick up one there, but they've lost at least 2 Senate seats total even if they win every race that hasn't been called yet. 3 or 4 is more likely.
Last polls here showed Heller and Rosen neck and neck.

But we won’t know until far past my bedtime who won
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Re: Push Polls vs Results

Post by Nyarlathotep » Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:24 am

And from what I see now, it is mathematically impossible for the Dems to take the Senate, no matter how my state goes. The Dems are 8 seats behind and only 6 are still undecided...
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