California burning

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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ed
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Re: California burning

Post by ed » Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:16 pm

xouper wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:12 pm
ed wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 1:34 pm
Scraping metal caused a fire? Really? Reproduce it. I dare you.
Fires in household fireplaces are started quite routinely using spark igniters. This experiment you are asking for has been done successfully literally millions of times.
Evasion noted.
See also this eyewitness testimony that a sparking rim from a flat tire caused a bush fire:
'Oblivious' California woman driving on car rim sparks 450-acre wildfire, police say

. . . The right rear tire of her 2002 Kia Rio became flat — leaving the rim rubbing against the road and causing a "shower of sparks that was igniting the grass shoulder of the roadway," California Highway Patrol wrote in an arrest report.

A fellow driver tried to gain Hogan's attention, to no avail, and eventually drove around Hogan to block her path, police said.
The plural of "anecdote" is not "Data" :x
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Re: California burning

Post by ed » Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:32 pm

Witness wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:27 pm
Image

:roll:
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Re: California burning

Post by Nyarlathotep » Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:50 pm

I don’t think you appreciate how tinder-dry the grass gets in these parts in the summer, Ed.

It’s almost more difficult NOT to set it on fire.

Also, as for your incredulity at scraping metal starting a fire and your demand for it to be replicted. I give you

A common every day survival kit item

ANd what do you usually use for tinder when using these items? Dry grass.

So the idea isn't all that out there.
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Re: California burning

Post by xouper » Mon Nov 12, 2018 6:06 pm

ed wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:16 pm
The plural of "anecdote" is not "Data" :x
That's true, if by Data you mean this guy:

Image


Otherwise: The plural of anecdote is data

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Re: California burning

Post by ed » Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:18 pm

Ah yes, the vast data base for research into ghosts. And UFOs and Kelpies and Yetis and such.
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Re: California burning

Post by xouper » Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:58 pm

ed wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:18 pm
Ah yes, the vast data base for research into ghosts. And UFOs and Kelpies and Yetis and such.
Those are all data, yes.

Fact: Medical researchers routinely rely heavily upon anecdotal data. When they do it, the plural of anecdote is indeed data, and legitimately so. Ask any epidemiologist.

The more relevant question is: What valid conclusions (if any) can that data be used to support? That's what separates the paranormal (mis)use of anecdotes (of ghosts, etc) from the medical use of anecdotes.

I assumed everyone here already knew all this, and why I assumed you were just pulling me leg. But if you were serious in your objections (about using Celsius, etc), then I will go back and address your concerns. Otherwise, I interpret your comments as an attempt at humor, not as serious objections to all the evidences I provided. Let me know, so that we are not talking past each other.

And if you want to have a discussion about anecdotes and data, we can do that too, although it seems I've had this conversation before.

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Re: California burning

Post by Anaxagoras » Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:16 pm

ed wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 1:34 pm
Smoldering cigarette = fire

I call bullshit. I have tried mightily to start a fire with a cig and failed.

I simply do not believe that it is possible. It is like the idea of dropping a cig in gasoline and getting an explosion. I've tried that too. Know what happens? The butt goes out.

Dammit, you cannot trust californians. Scraping metal caused a fire? Really? Reproduce it. I dare you.

I'll tell you what causes fires: faults in transformers on poles. They explode dammit. They explose and shower molten globules (raising the tenor) of copper. Hot as hell.

I've just had it.
It's true that cigarette butts probably don't cause fires (or so I've heard from a forensic examiner whose job it is to determine what caused a fire). More common is a downed power line. Once started, a zephyr blowing in from the Pacific may cause it to spread.
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Re: California burning

Post by corplinx » Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:36 pm

Okay, pretend I believe global warming is the reason for the wildfires.

What are we doing to mitigate the effect? What are we doing in forestry management to limit the impact of more frequent forest fires?

Controlled burns? Clearing underbrush? what?

Blaming global warming in hindsight doesn't remove the culpability of the state for not doing more to mitigate the risk.

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Re: California burning

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:38 pm

Blaming global warming == make political hay without really having to do anything.
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Re: California burning

Post by ed » Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:54 pm

Nah, just funnin' ya.

Anecdotal stuff is the jumping off point for real research. the genesis of Kuru for example. And it forms the meat and potatoes for folklorists and the like.

Interesting discussion is possible but not now. Folklore is an interest of mine.

WTF is it about
The Lambton Worm is a legend from County Durham in North East England in the UK. The story takes place around the River Wear, and is one of the area's most famous pieces of folklore, having been adapted from written and oral tradition into pantomime and song formats.
True? Something there?
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Re: California burning

Post by Nyarlathotep » Tue Nov 13, 2018 1:08 am

ed wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:54 pm

Interesting discussion is possible but not now. Folklore is an interest of mine.

WTF is it about
The Lambton Worm is a legend from County Durham in North East England in the UK. The story takes place around the River Wear, and is one of the area's most famous pieces of folklore, having been adapted from written and oral tradition into pantomime and song formats.
True? Something there?
The basis for one of my favorite movies. This sequence from the film is actually an 80s-fied version of the folk song about the beast (though, for whatever reason, they changed Lambton to D'Ampton for the movie)

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Re: California burning

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Tue Nov 13, 2018 1:17 am

The global warming thing might not be total BS to this extent:

Insofar as bad forest management leads to worse forest fires, it leads to more CO2 emissions.
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Re: California burning

Post by ed » Tue Nov 13, 2018 1:54 am

Abdul Alhazred wrote:
Tue Nov 13, 2018 1:17 am
The global warming thing might not be total BS to this extent:

Insofar as bad forest management leads to worse forest fires, it leads to more CO2 emissions.

So Snowflakes cause Global Warming?
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Re: California burning

Post by corplinx » Tue Nov 13, 2018 2:28 am

Kappa

Surprise
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Re: California burning

Post by Surprise » Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:30 am

Abdul Alhazred wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:38 pm
Blaming global warming == make political hay without really having to do anything.
Blaming global warming == agreeing with science.

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Re: California burning

Post by ed » Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:39 am

Careful with that otherwise we'll only have two sexes.

And that won't do.
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Re: California burning

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:46 am

Surprise wrote:
Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:30 am
Abdul Alhazred wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:38 pm
Blaming global warming == make political hay without really having to do anything.
Blaming global warming == agreeing with science.
So "science" says global warming is the cause of everything bad that happens in the environment?

Let me guess:

The solution is more power to your favorite faction of the ruling class, which is also the solution to all our other problems?
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Re: California burning

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:49 am

Wait a minute, is that a N00b that we somehow missed?

All disputes momentarily set aside for official welcoming ceremony :)

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Re: California burning

Post by ed » Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:54 am

Abdul Alhazred wrote:
Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:46 am
Surprise wrote:
Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:30 am
Abdul Alhazred wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:38 pm
Blaming global warming == make political hay without really having to do anything.
Blaming global warming == agreeing with science.
So "science" says global warming is the cause of everything bad that happens in the environment?

Let me guess:

The solution is more power to your favorite faction of the ruling class, which is also the solution to all our other problems?

Actually circa 1200 its "sin". And the ruling class is the church. Now you are correct.
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Re: California burning

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:18 pm

Abdul Alhazred wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:38 pm
Blaming global warming == make political hay without really having to do anything.
As a matter of practical politics, this statement is 100% true even if Surprise is 100% right.

Because the whole world must toe the line and California cannot do anything about it but whine.

Whereas proper forest management takes some political effort to implement and might even improve though not solve the climate situation.
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