California burning

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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Rob Lister
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Re: California burning

Post by Rob Lister » Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:33 pm

ed wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 1:34 pm
I'll tell you what causes fires: faults in transformers on poles. They explode dammit. They explose and shower molten globules (raising the tenor) of copper. Hot as hell.
You might have nailed it.
Earlier on Monday, PG&E said it experienced a problem on an electrical transmission line near the site of the massive fire, minutes before the blaze broke out.
https://nypost.com/2018/11/13/woman-war ... -wildfire/

ed wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 1:34 pm
I've just had it.
How was it?

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Re: California burning

Post by ed » Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:47 pm

about the same.

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Re: California burning

Post by ed » Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:48 pm

Abdul Alhazred wrote:
Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:18 pm
Abdul Alhazred wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:38 pm
Blaming global warming == make political hay without really having to do anything.
As a matter of practical politics, this statement is 100% true even if Surprise is 100% right.

Because the whole world must toe the line and California cannot do anything about it but whine.

Whereas proper forest management takes some political effort to implement and might even improve though not solve the climate situation.
And might piss off snowflakes if the spotted owl gets stressed
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Re: California burning

Post by Anaxagoras » Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:14 am

A lot of those lands in California where fires start are federal lands though.
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Re: California burning

Post by Grammatron » Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:37 am

Not state land?

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Re: California burning

Post by Anaxagoras » Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:40 am

Grammatron wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:37 am
Not state land?
That's what I read.

https://www.redding.com/story/news/2018 ... 971196002/
In fact, six of California's 16 most destructive wildfires in the past 25 years — in terms of structures destroyed — occurred on federal lands, according to Cal Fire records.

In Shasta County, last summer's 229,650-acre Carr Fire started on National Park Service lands before spreading to private property and eventually into the city of Redding.
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Re: California burning

Post by Grammatron » Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:47 am

How interesting.

Yet, when the fires happen it's not the Federal fire departments that come to fight them.

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Re: California burning

Post by Nyarlathotep » Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:17 am

Apparently, it's all a big false flag anyway
Now, a new and completely unsubstantiated theory is taking hold.

Far from being a result of wide-spread drought and climate change, online conspirators are claiming the California wildfires are also part of a secret government mission.
I have seen more than a couple of posts suggesting that its all a big plot to buy up land on the cheap for the high-speed rail system that has been proposed.

I mean, spending a few billion dollars fighting fires to save a few million buying land makes perfect sense, right?
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Re: California burning

Post by Anaxagoras » Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:37 am

Nyarlathotep wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:17 am
Apparently, it's all a big false flag anyway
Now, a new and completely unsubstantiated theory is taking hold.

Far from being a result of wide-spread drought and climate change, online conspirators are claiming the California wildfires are also part of a secret government mission.
I have seen more than a couple of posts suggesting that its all a big plot to buy up land on the cheap for the high-speed rail system that has been proposed.

I mean, spending a few billion dollars fighting fires to save a few million buying land makes perfect sense, right?
ODD T.V. is just one of the YouTube channels promoting this groundless theory, and – surprise! – it's run by a self-confessed Flat Earther.

In a video with nearly 200,000 views, this flat-earth YouTuber argues the recent California wildfires defy the laws of physics and are "very strange and suspect to say the least."
I'm torn over whether exposing this sort of nonsense helps, or just helps the YouTube channel get more views.

I mean, if it's coming from a flat-earther what more do we really need to know.


Oh, I like the headline for that story: "Some YouTubers Think The California Wildfires Are a Conspiracy, And We Can't Even"
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Re: California burning

Post by Nyarlathotep » Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:43 am

Problem is, if people like this spread their bullshit freely, then it starts being passed by well-meaning people who didn't notice or didn't care about the "flat earther" part and who find the pseudoscience behind it compelling. It's much easier to convince people this is crap when it is still being spread by some flearther dunderhead on YooToooooob than when one's slightly eccentric but generally likable Uncle Phil starts spreading it.
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Re: California burning

Post by Anaxagoras » Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:46 am

Yeah, it's sort of a catch-22.
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Re: California burning

Post by Surprise » Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:15 am

Abdul Alhazred wrote:
Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:46 am
Surprise wrote:
Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:30 am
Abdul Alhazred wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:38 pm
Blaming global warming == make political hay without really having to do anything.
Blaming global warming == agreeing with science.
So "science" says global warming is the cause of everything bad that happens in the environment?

Let me guess:

The solution is more power to your favorite faction of the ruling class, which is also the solution to all our other problems?
Science says that global warming is real. It is global and it is the environment that we live in. It doesn't say it is the cause of everything "bad" that happens in the environment. Global means every part of the planet. For a place like California which is already hot and dry, making it more hot and dry is going to have consequences. Fires that would have been more easily contained before now become harder to contain. The fire season now lasts longer. Fires start more easily.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar ... our-hands/
Summer 2018 saw an unprecedented spate of extreme weather events, from the floods in Japan, to the record heat waves across North America, Europe and Asia, to wildfires that threatened Greece and even parts of the Arctic. The heat and drought in the western U.S. culminated in the worst California wildfire on record. This is the face of climate change, I commented at the time.

Some of the connections with climate change here are pretty straightforward. One of the simplest relationships in all of atmospheric science tells us that the atmosphere holds exponentially more moisture as temperatures increase. Increased moisture means potentially for greater amounts of rainfall in short periods of time, i.e. worse floods. The same thermodynamic relationship, ironically, also explains why soils evaporate exponentially more moisture as ground temperatures increase, favoring more extreme drought in many regions. Summer heat waves increase in frequency and intensity with even modest (e.g. the observed roughly 2F) overall warming owing to the behavior of the positive “tail” of the bell curve when you shift the center of the curve even a small amount. Combine extreme heat and drought and you get more massive, faster-spreading wildfires. It’s not rocket science.

But there is more to the story. Because what made these events so devastating was not just the extreme nature of the meteorological episodes but their persistence. When a low-pressure center stalls and lingers over the same location for days at a time, you get record accumulation of rainfall and unprecedented flooding. That’s what happened with Hurricane Harvey last year and Hurricane Florence this year. It is also what happened with the floods in Japan earlier this summer and the record summer rainfall we experienced this summer here in Pennsylvania. Conversely, when a high-pressure center stalls over the same location, as happened in California, Europe, Asia and even up into the European Arctic this past summer, you get record heat, drought and wildfires.

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Re: California burning

Post by Anaxagoras » Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:04 pm

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/201 ... -stay.html?

Podcast interview of a guy who knows a lot about fires.
Steve Pyne has made fire his life’s work. He put them out for 15 summers and has thought about them ever since. Today on the show: the conversation we’re not having about wildfires and why despite the devastation in California this week, he remains hopeful that we can figure this out.
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Re: California burning

Post by WildCat » Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:58 pm

Anaxagoras wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:04 pm
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/201 ... -stay.html?

Podcast interview of a guy who knows a lot about fires.
Steve Pyne has made fire his life’s work. He put them out for 15 summers and has thought about them ever since. Today on the show: the conversation we’re not having about wildfires and why despite the devastation in California this week, he remains hopeful that we can figure this out.
Like forced migrations out of California until the population is 10 million or so?
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Re: California burning

Post by ed » Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:37 pm

Surprise wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:15 am

Science says that climate is real.
Yawn.
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Re: California burning

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:43 pm

But seriously ed.

Climate change is real, and human effect on it is measurable.

The questions are ...

1) Really a crisis?
2) Is the same old hideous anti-human dystopia ("better world") the resolution of the crisis?

Complicating the issue are pure hucksters like Al Gore merely enriching themselves.
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Re: California burning

Post by Anaxagoras » Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:23 pm

WildCat wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:58 pm
Anaxagoras wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:04 pm
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/201 ... -stay.html?

Podcast interview of a guy who knows a lot about fires.
Steve Pyne has made fire his life’s work. He put them out for 15 summers and has thought about them ever since. Today on the show: the conversation we’re not having about wildfires and why despite the devastation in California this week, he remains hopeful that we can figure this out.
Like forced migrations out of California until the population is 10 million or so?
No, I don't think he mentioned that or implied it. Although losing your house to a fire could be a kind of "forced migration".
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Re: California burning

Post by WildCat » Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:27 pm

Anaxagoras wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:23 pm
No, I don't think he mentioned that or implied it. Although losing your house to a fire could be a kind of "forced migration".
What did he mention?
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Re: California burning

Post by ed » Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:31 pm

Well, the influx of wetbacks probably don't require flammable houses in Holmesby Hills. Maybe this will accelrate the medeivalization of Cali wherein the peasants live in hovels and eke out a meager existence mining bauxite while the white elites live in castles gated communities.

Will be interesting when a Wat Tyler Rodriguez emerges. Sadly, I'll be rooting for the peasants.
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Re: California burning

Post by Anaxagoras » Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:09 pm

WildCat wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:27 pm
Anaxagoras wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:23 pm
No, I don't think he mentioned that or implied it. Although losing your house to a fire could be a kind of "forced migration".
What did he mention?
controlled burns was one thing.
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