The Official Ebola Thread

Ever had it before? Well you got it again.
Pyrrho
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Pyrrho »

Once we take that step there will be no going back.

I have no confidence in the government's ability to manage a quarantine of this nature.

This is going to get very much uglier than it already is.
Anaxagoras
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Anaxagoras »

Pyrrho wrote:It's okay, no worries, the mayor held a press conference, it's all good. Local news is handling it as professionally as one might expect.

(snip)

http://s10.postimg.org/idwo5rwbd/ebola3.jpg

(snip)

I saw that plane at the airport on the drive home. I would quarantine myself but I didn't inhale.
Hasn't it been about 3 weeks now since she was in Cleveland or on a plane? No word of any new patients infected due to that?
Says she was in Ohio from the 8th to the 13th of October before flying back to Dallas.
I suppose we should wait another week or two to be sure, but I'm guessing now that it didn't spread from her.

Or is it still too early for a secondary transmitted infection to show up if there was one?
DrMatt
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by DrMatt »

Flew to Cleveland after staying in Akron?
That's what, like a 90-minute drive?
Google Maps says it's less than 45 minutes drive.
Anaxagoras
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Anaxagoras »

NY doctor diagnosed with Ebola to be released from hospital after being declared disease-free.

Looks more and more like the outbreak has been contained.

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/ebola-infe ... d=26714595
Anaxagoras
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Anaxagoras »

The Economist has some graphs, but not the one we want:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicd ... a-graphics

I want to see a graph that shows whether we are "bending the curve" or not. At the end of the day, that's how you can tell whether the epidemic is being effectively contained or not.
Nyarlathotep
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Nyarlathotep »

Was just hearing that they are monitoring a patient in Reno for Ebola. If I am not here tomorrow, you know I caught Ebola and died. It was nice knowing you all.
Doctor X
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Doctor X »

We have the appropriate solvents for your stereo.

--J.D.
Witness
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Witness »

Nyarlathotep wrote:Was just hearing that they are monitoring a patient in Reno for Ebola. If I am not here tomorrow, you know I caught Ebola and died. It was nice knowing you all.
Hey, you don't have to run with the fashionista crowd – choose something different!

And by the way:
International SOS wrote:
--Nigeria
Last Updated: November 10, 2014 06:42 GMT

STATUS: DECLARED EBOLA FREE 20 OCTOBER

All contacts completed 21 days monitoring 1 October with no further cases identified. Last confirmed cases reported in early September (Lagos - 5 September, Port Harcourt - 1 September).
https://www.internationalsos.com/ebola/ ... nt_id=418&
Pyrrho
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Pyrrho »

Ebola gamified in 3D!

http://www.npr.org/blogs/goatsandsoda/2 ... ugh-a-ward
Anaxagoras
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Anaxagoras »

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/a-d ... story.html
FREETOWN, Sierra Leone — When Martin Salia’s Ebola test came back negative, his friends and colleagues threw their arms around him. They shook his hand. They patted him on the back. They removed their protective gear and cried.

But when his symptoms remained nearly a week later, Salia took another test, on Nov. 10. This one came back positive, sending the Sierra Leonean doctor with ties to Maryland on a desperate, belated quest for treatment and forcing the colleagues who had embraced him into quarantine.

“We were celebrating. If the test says you are Ebola-free, we assume you are Ebola-free,” said Komba Songu M’Briwa, who cared for Salia at the Hastings Ebola Treatment Center in Freetown. “Then everything fell apart.”

Salia died early Monday at the Nebraska Medical Center in Omaha, his family left to wonder what would have happened if he had received earlier treatment.
Anaxagoras
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Anaxagoras »

Spain 1 case
Guinea 1919 cases 1166 deaths
Sierra Leone 5586 cases 1187 deaths
Senegal 1 case
Mali 4 cases 3 deaths
Liberia 6878 cases 2812 deaths
Nigeria 20 cases 8 deaths
United States 4 cases 1 death*
14412 cases, 5177 deaths as of Nov. 17.

Slowing down? It was 13,703 cases 4920 deaths as of Oct. 31.

There were some dire predictions by the WHO of 5,000 to 10,000 new cases per week by the end of November:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/wor ... e21085134/
West Africa will be enduring 5,000 to 10,000 new cases of Ebola every week by the end of next month, the World Health Organization says.

The worrisome new forecast was issued on Tuesday by the WHO’s deputy director-general, Bruce Aylward, in a press briefing in Geneva. He predicts a dramatic rise from the current total of about 1,000 new cases weekly.
That's less than 1000 new cases in over 2 weeks, according to the official numbers. Of course, there may be cases we don't know about, but still . . .
Rob Lister
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Rob Lister »

On most any subject, WHO predictions are generally as reliable as pulling a number directly out of one's ass. The CDC is a much more reliable source and even they are not all that reliable, but at least they give justification for their numbers. Their report dated Sep 26 http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su6303a1.htm (see Results) is an interesting if complicated read. Pretty graphs that are hard to make sense of (said Lister, passively).
ed
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by ed »

shit. Time to change my avatar?
Pyrrho
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Pyrrho »

http://media.npr.org/assets/img/2014/11 ... 00-c85.jpg
Rob Lister
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Rob Lister »

Why doesn't he cover his fucking mouth. Do the dracula. Jeez. 3 feet. That's just where the children are!

Meanwhile

http://static.dyp.im/FKYngrStLq/04a252e ... c12e6f.JPG
Anaxagoras
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Anaxagoras »

Good news, everyone! (No, really!)

It looks like they are getting it under control:

WHO official says Liberia, Guinea meeting Ebola reduction targets
GENEVA — Liberia and Guinea have met a Dec. 1 target for isolating 70 percent of people infected with Ebola and safely burying 70 percent of those who die but Sierra Leone has not, the World Health Organization said Monday.

Only last week, the U.N. health agency said only Guinea was on track to meet the targets for getting the Ebola outbreak under control in the three hardest-hit West African countries.

But at a news conference in Geneva, WHO's Dr. Bruce Aylward said the organization had revised its conclusion based on more analysis of its data. Sierra Leone also probably met the targets in the west of the country, he said, and likely will improve to the 70 percent target nationwide "in the coming weeks."

Aylward also told reporters that WHO's ambitious plan to stop the deadly Ebola outbreak in West Africa has shown it is possible to quickly reduce the "yawning gap" between disease levels and the capacity to respond.

"You can catch up with Ebola even on this scale," he said.

WHO launched its Ebola its 70 percent plan two months ago.

In Freetown, Sierra Leone, on Monday, the chief executive of the National Ebola Response Centre, retired Maj. Alfred Palo Conteh, acknowledged that "as far as meeting the 70 percent isolation target, we did not do well and could have done better."

He said authorities there need more beds for isolation, adding that 400 beds are expected in the next two weeks.

From: http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/2 ... est-Africa
15,935 total cases and 5689 deaths as of Dec. 1 according to the site:

http://healthmap.org/ebola/#timeline

That's only 2,232 more cases than as of Oct. 31, whereas the increase in October was over 7,000. Even accounting for that fact that the numbers are probably incomplete, that looks like the spread is being slowed, rather than increasing exponentially.
Doctor X
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Doctor X »

I will get on that. . . .

--J.D.
Rob Lister
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Rob Lister »

http://static.dyp.im/NwncFyA7BC/e44c6c9 ... cb99f8.JPG

previous
Spoiler:
http://i.imgur.com/NJIb8Es.jpg
In sierra leone, almost 2000 new cases in the last three weeks. An additional 500 deaths.
Last edited by Rob Lister on Fri Dec 19, 2014 2:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Doctor X
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Doctor X »

I see the US has not kept up with the Rest of the World as usual.

--J.D.
jacks
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by jacks »

CDC fucks up again,
Researchers studying Ebola in a highly secure laboratory mistakenly allowed potentially lethal samples of the virus to be handled in a much less secure laboratory at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, agency officials said Wednesday.

One technician in the second laboratory may have been exposed to the virus and about a dozen other people have been assessed after entering the facility unaware that potentially hazardous samples of Ebola had been handled there.
first anthrax now ebola. is it not possible to root out incompetence?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/ ... story.html
Doctor X
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Doctor X »

Of course not.

One needs to remember that mistakes happen in routine. People naturally pay less attention to elements of a routine. We are wired that way.

One tries to build layers of safeguards to combat against this.

For all of this, of course, I blame Obama Hal.

--J.D.
ed
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by ed »

New Study Suggests End of Ebola in Liberia by June
http://www.voanews.com/content/new-stud ... 97525.html

Good news!!! At least now I can settle my vacation plans.

http://gdb.voanews.com/567B30CE-5876-44 ... 0_r1_s.jpg
Here are the happy greeters at the airport queuing up to await my arrival on June 25.
n.b. there is not a lot to do in Liberia.
Rob Lister
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Rob Lister »

ed wrote:New Study Suggests End of Ebola in Liberia by June
http://www.voanews.com/content/new-stud ... 97525.html

Good news!!! At least now I can settle my vacation plans.


Here are the happy greeters at the airport queuing up to await my arrival on June 25.
n.b. there is not a lot to do in Liberia.
They are rather optimistic.
http://static.dyp.im/SiTTPkocm7/62b5da0 ... af0b42.JPG

On the lighter side, we get this tidbit from the tracker website ...
"Margibi County Health Officer, Dr. Adolphus Yeiah, has revealed that there has been no new case of Ebola in Margibi County for the last 28 days. He said, however,the recent quarantining of Lonfay Town in Gibi District was due to a dead body that was transported from Monrovia to the town at night on December 17, 20 14. Yeiah said the dead body was dressed in ordinary clothing like a regular passenger and strapped with seat belt in the front seat of the taxi, which evaded the checkpoints to smuggle the body into the county.He said the County Health Team (CHT) through its partners received a tip-off but before they could reach the town the next morning, the people had already carried out an overnight wake-keeping and early burial.
:!
ed
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by ed »

We have the same problem down here. I just toss 'em into lake ed.
Anaxagoras
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Anaxagoras »

The news media seems to have lost interest in Ebola lately, haven't they?

Looking at the map and the numbers, it seems to be slowing down:

http://www.healthmap.org/ebola/#timeline
Doctor X
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Doctor X »

Anaxagoras wrote:The news media seems to have lost interest in Ebola lately, haven't they?
WE ARE TALKING ABOUT BRADY'S SOFT BALLS Anax.


--J.D.
Anaxagoras
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Anaxagoras »

Doctor X wrote:
Anaxagoras wrote:The news media seems to have lost interest in Ebola lately, haven't they?
WE ARE TALKING ABOUT BRADY'S SOFT BALLS Anax.


--J.D.
Seriously though. I am hearing that "deflategate" was the lead story on national network news on more than one network. The regular news, not the sports news.

:jaded:
Doctor X
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Doctor X »

In all seriousness it was the lead "Breaking Story! :hyper: " on ClintonNewsNetwork, MSWeAREFoxNBC, and Faux News.





NPR aired their documentary on the rectal harp players of Upper Volta . . . after a repeat of a show on fixing a broken wagon wheel.

Seriously.

The "joke" I made on the other thread about "WE HAVE A PERSON OF INTEREST!!!!!!"" which blasted across the same http://i170.photobucket.com/albums/u264 ... 5ee64d.gifnewshttp://i170.photobucket.com/albums/u264 ... f16ffc.gif networks had to do with the not-leaked revelation that the "Person of Interest"--as the NFL put it--was a ball boy taking 90 second to go to the bathroom. Rather than leave the balls unattended he brought them with him as he is suppose to.

Of course, while all that happened, "Snowpocalypse" hit the North East, ISIS is executing hostages, and all sorts of actual meaningful things like whether or not this current outbreak is burning out.

Oh and Sarah Pallin may run for President along with a bunch of other Complete Hopeless. http://i170.photobucket.com/albums/u264 ... ecdd06.gif

--J.D.
Anaxagoras
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Anaxagoras »

Doctor X wrote:Of course, while all that happened, "Snowpocalypse" hit the North East, ISIS is executing hostages, and all sorts of actual meaningful things like whether or not this current outbreak is burning out.

Oh and Sarah Pallin may run for President along with a bunch of other Complete Hopeless. http://i170.photobucket.com/albums/u264 ... ecdd06.gif

--J.D.
War has ramped back up again in Ukraine. Lots of obviously Russian tanks in the country, driven by obviously Russian soldiers in obviously Russian uniforms with only their insignias removed or covered. And we are supposed to believe that Russia is not invading Ukraine. Lots of things that seem to be objectively somewhat more important.
Doctor X
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Doctor X »

Well, Obama already demonstrated he will do nothing if Russia simply conquers the Ukraine, other than send a "Strong Letter of Disapproval" and maybe do a Youtube video with an unfunny comedian who failed High School English. Whether or not "something" should be done in this case was reduced to a point not worth mooting when he scurried away from his vow to respond to Syria using chemical weapons. If he lacks the balls to spank a rather defenseless Assad who faces all sorts of opposition trying to take his head, he is not going to find them and have them pass NFL regulation PSI [Get on with it!--Ed.] in the face of Putin.

So, yes, it is still about soft balls.

Back to Ebola, I have not paid much attention to the attempts to devise a vaccine.

--J.D.
Anaxagoras
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Anaxagoras »

Here's another one of those explainer videos about Ebola. I posted one about measles in another thread.

[youtube]sRv19gkZ4E0[/youtube]

And this one is about the immune system itself. It would actually be better to watch this one first as the other ones build on it:

[youtube]zQGOcOUBi6s[/youtube]
Doctor X
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Doctor X »

Actually watched those from the link on the measles and they do a very good job on it, particularly the risk and fear.

--J.D.
Anaxagoras
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Anaxagoras »

Well, I think we can officially say that the worst is probably behind us now:

As Ebola Cases Dwindle, West Africa Turns To Economic Recovery
West Africa is about to receive a hefty infusion of cash. This Friday the World Bank unveiled a major aid package for the three West African countries at the center of this past year's Ebola epidemic.

Over the next 18 months, the bank plans to provide Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea $650 million in recovery assistance, mostly in the form of grants. The African Development Bank followed suit Friday with a pledge of about $300 million in similar funding.
Meanwhile, the effort to bring cases down to zero continues to grind forward. Liberia has not had a single new case since late March. Sierra Leone is in sight of that goal as well, said the World Health Organization's Bruce Aylward at a news conference Thursday. He noted that for the past two weeks there have been only nine new cases confirmed there.

"They [Sierra Leone] are down to numbers where they can drive this to zero," Aylward said.

Another hopeful sign is that a large share of new infections — nearly 70 percent — are occurring in people whom health officials had already been tracking because they were known to have been in contact with an Ebola patient. That's important because it suggests health officials are doing a good job of identifying potential transmission chains.

But Aylward also warned that the campaign to end Ebola in Guinea is proving more "bumpy" than it is in Liberia and Sierra Leone. And he's worried that the progress across West Africa has created a false impression that the battle to stop Ebola has been won. "This is not done," he said. "Success is not assured," he added.
ETA: Those treatment centers built by the military came too late to be of much use in the current outbreak, but perhaps they will still be useful for other things in the future I hope?
Recently, the U.S. effort in Liberia has come under fire. The multimillion dollar effort to build Ebola treatment units was completed too late to be of much use, The New York Times reported Sunday. The U.S. deployed almost 3,000 military troops at a cost of hundreds of millions to erect 11 treatment facilities. But by the time they were ready, the caseload in Liberia had already fallen precipitously. Only 28 Ebola patients were treated at a unit built by U.S. forces.

Nonetheless, Aylward said, the U.S. promise to build these centers provided an important morale boost for Liberians at the height of the crisis. The U.S. also gave material support and air transport, which was instrumental in getting health worker teams to hard-to-reach hot spots, he said.

Finally, Aylward noted that when the U.S. committed to building the treatment units, statistical models were suggesting infections would continue to rise exponentially in the coming weeks and months.
Anaxagoras
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Anaxagoras »

ed wrote:New Study Suggests End of Ebola in Liberia by June
http://www.voanews.com/content/new-stud ... 97525.html

Good news!!! At least now I can settle my vacation plans.

http://gdb.voanews.com/567B30CE-5876-44 ... 0_r1_s.jpg
Here are the happy greeters at the airport queuing up to await my arrival on June 25.
n.b. there is not a lot to do in Liberia.

WHO is saying the disease has been eradicated in Liberia. A month early too! :)
Doctor X
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Doctor X »

http://i170.photobucket.com/albums/u264 ... 9d8ee1.gif
The Ebola virus has been detected in the eye of a US doctor who had already recovered from the illness.

The medic, who caught the bug while working in Sierra Leone, had blurred eyesight and pain two months after being declared Ebola-free.

Scientists say his eye infection presents no risk to the public.

But reporting in the New England Journal of Medicine they warn that research is needed to see if Ebola can also linger in other parts of the body.

BBC
http://i170.photobucket.com/albums/u264 ... 7824dd.gif

--J.D.
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Anaxagoras »

Interesting article about a Canadian-developed Ebola vaccine, which seems to be effective:

The story of ‘the Canadian vaccine’ that beat back Ebola
CONAKRY, Guinea — When Alseny Conté’s wife developed a high fever and became sick in 2015, the farmer from Bouramaya, Guinea, became her caregiver. The 37-year-old spent days comforting her and cleaning up after her as she vomited blood and developed severe diarrhea — two markers of the dreaded Ebola virus.

When her condition worsened, a desperate Conté put his wife on the back of his motorcycle and left their tiny village of 50 thatch-roofed homes. He took her to a traditional healer. Then, fearing she was near death, he drove down bumpy red dirt roads to the home of her mother in a nearby village.

Soon, his wife had succumbed to Ebola, the deadly hemorrhagic fever that can cause its victims to bleed from the nose, the mouth and eyes as it quickly overwhelms their system.

The disease, which swept through West Africa in 2014 and 2015, not only killed Conté’s wife but infected her brother, who lived with their mother.

But despite his close contact with his dying wife, Conté remained healthy. The farmer had received the Ebola vaccine referred to as VSV-EBOV during clinical trials near his home.

He was one of 4,000 people who were given the experimental Canadian-made vaccine as part of the trial. Like many in Guinea who feared it would make them sick, his wife refused to take the vaccine.

Conté feared the vaccine, too, but was convinced it would protect him.

Before they realized he had been vaccinated, health workers warned Conté that he would almost certainly become sick.

Ebola is spread through contact with the blood and bodily fluids of those sick with the disease. Health workers wearing protective gowns and masks began monitoring the West African farmer’s temperature twice a day. But, after 21 days, Conté didn’t have so much as a headache.

Bouboucar Diallo, an Ebola response surveillance co-ordinator with the World Health Organization in Guinea, was one of those keeping a close watch on the unfolding crisis. The internationally recognized expert in global health, a Canadian who attended the University of Winnipeg among other institutions, had a front-row view of the vaccine when it arrived in Guinea for clinical trials early in 2015.

He watched as its stunning interim results — which found the vaccine was as much as 100 per cent effective — made headlines around the world.

But it was the story of Alseny Conté – one Diallo now tells – that convinced him. If the vaccine really was highly effective, Diallo knew, Conté would not become sick despite being at high risk. The Guinean farmer’s experience spoke volumes.

“That is when I knew the vaccine worked.”
OTOH, and this is old news now, but the clinics set up in Liberia by the US seem to have arrived too late to do much good:

Empty Ebola Clinics in Liberia Are Seen as Misstep in U.S. Relief Effort
MONROVIA, Liberia — As bodies littered the streets and the sick lay dying in front of overwhelmed clinics last year, President Obama ordered the largest American intervention ever in a global health crisis, hoping to stem the deadliest Ebola epidemic in history.

But after spending hundreds of millions of dollars and deploying nearly 3,000 troops to build Ebola treatment centers, the United States ended up creating facilities that have largely sat empty: Only 28 Ebola patients have been treated at the 11 treatment units built by the United States military, American officials now say.

Nine centers have never had a single Ebola patient.

“My task was to convince the international organizations, ‘You don’t need any more E.T.U.s,’ ” said Dr. Hans Rosling, a Swedish public health expert who advised Liberia’s health ministry, referring to Ebola treatment units.

“I warned them, ‘The only thing you’ll show is an empty E.T.U.,’ ” he added. “ ‘Don’t do it.’ ”

The American response, it turns out, was outpaced by the fast-moving and unpredictable disease.

Facing criticism that his reaction to the devastating epidemic had been slow and inadequate, Mr. Obama announced his signature plan in mid-September, focusing on Liberia, America’s historical ally.

But even before the first treatment center built by the American military opened there, the number of Ebola cases in Liberia had fallen drastically, casting doubt on the American strategy of building facilities that took months to complete.

The emphasis on constructing treatment centers — so widely championed last year — ended up having much less impact than the inexpensive, nimble measures taken by residents to halt the outbreak, many officials say.
ETA: gotta include this graph:

https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2 ... oard_3.png
Doctor X
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Doctor X »

He even fucked up this.

--J.D.
Witness
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Witness »

BBC wrote:Why Ebola keeps coming back

The news of an Ebola outbreak in the town of Bikoro in north-west DR Congo instantly brings to mind the horror of the epidemic that took 11,000 lives and infected 28,000 people in West Africa between 2014 and 2016.

It is a nightmare no-one wants to relive - or should have to.

Since 4 April in DR Congo, there have been more than 30 possible cases - involving 18 deaths - although only two incidents have so far been confirmed as Ebola.

So why does Ebola keep coming back and what work is being done to prevent a repeat of the tragedy in West Africa?
[…]
There are five identified strains of the Ebola virus, the deadliest to date being the Zaire strain.

This is the strain involved in the latest outbreak, for which there is now a vaccine ready for emergency use.

In December 2016, final results of a large trial of this vaccine - with funding from the Wellcome Trust and the UK and Norwegian governments - confirmed it provides a high level of protection.

It was developed rapidly during the 2014-16 epidemic but came too late to have a significant impact at the time.

It is not yet fully licensed, but thanks to global efforts it has been proved safe for human use and 300,000 doses are stockpiled.

Crucially, it would be free for patients and could be in the area within three to four days.
http://www.bbc.com/news/health-44070470
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Anaxagoras »

Well at least there's a vaccine for it now, so hopefully this outbreak can be nipped in the bud, although it depends on whether it's safe for aid workers to enter the affected areas. This being DR Congo I don't know about that.
Doctor X
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Doctor X »

I, for one, find it sad that so many People of Color[Tm.--Ed.] will risk getting the autisms when there are many other alternatives such as acupuncture, Reiki, prayer, Qi Gong, and Robitussin.

--J.D.