Google Self-Driving Car Accident Reports

[Rob Lister]

It occures to me that with fully driverless cars, we're about to see a big uptick in truck-hauled advertisements.



May they all go to hell with the drivers that are not driving them.

[Witness]

↑ Interesting. As long as these unmanned ships stay in safe waters:



And their computers don't get hacked…

[Grammatron]

What sort of measure is a "truck journey"?

[Rob Lister]

What sort of measure is a "truck journey"?

I think ...
They currently haul fertilizer by truck rather than barge.

[Grammatron]

What sort of measure is a "truck journey"?

I think ...
They currently haul fertilizer by truck rather than barge.

And that truck journey, if measured in freedom units would be what exactly?

[Doctor X]

37.

--J.D.

[gnome]

How would it manifest?

[Mentat]

As "META-INF/MANIFEST.MF"

[Mentat]

Exciting times ahead

[Rob Lister]

When it is true.

[sparks]

Wouldn't you, if you were from Listy's planet?

[Anaxagoras]

Not about the accident reports, but a piece about the challenges ahead:

https://www.marketplace.org/2018/01/30/ ... r-slowdown

Basically there are still a lot of difficult problems to overcome. We'll get there eventually, but it's not "just around the corner".

[Rob Lister]

Not about the accident reports, but a piece about the challenges ahead:

https://www.marketplace.org/2018/01/30/ ... r-slowdown

Basically there are still a lot of difficult problems to overcome. We'll get there eventually, but it's not "just around the corner".

The reporter starts out well giving good and valid reasons the technology is not yet ready for prime time but I think he's a little short-sighted and pessimistic. Agreed, it isn't yet ready and 2020 is way too soon. Yea, LIDAR is in its infancy but kids grow up fast.

He then starts to jump the shark with ...

Moving to autonomous vehicles could destroy the jobs of millions of truckers, taxi drivers, bus drivers, dispatchers, and all the support jobs that make up the entire transportation industry.

And free up that labor to do more creative things. This is akin to a broken window fallacy.

It could also upend the automotive industry, despite the brave faces of Toyota and Audi and Ford and the like.

He doesn't say how.

There’s the auto insurance industry — will Geico go under if there aren’t any more car accidents?

Maybe. Or maybe they'll just insure other things. But if they do, so fucking what. Buggy whip.

Then he gets really stupid ...

The proposed unintended consequences start to get a lot darker, too, like the idea that there might be a sudden drop in organ donations when all those car accidents go away.

[Anaxagoras]

Not about the accident reports, but a piece about the challenges ahead:

https://www.marketplace.org/2018/01/30/ ... r-slowdown

Basically there are still a lot of difficult problems to overcome. We'll get there eventually, but it's not "just around the corner".

The reporter starts out well giving good and valid reasons the technology is not yet ready for prime time but I think he's a little short-sighted and pessimistic. Agreed, it isn't yet ready and 2020 is way too soon. Yea, LIDAR is in its infancy but kids grow up fast.

He then starts to jump the shark with ...

Moving to autonomous vehicles could destroy the jobs of millions of truckers, taxi drivers, bus drivers, dispatchers, and all the support jobs that make up the entire transportation industry.

And free up that labor to do more creative things. This is akin to a broken window fallacy.

It could also upend the automotive industry, despite the brave faces of Toyota and Audi and Ford and the like.

He doesn't say how.

There’s the auto insurance industry — will Geico go under if there aren’t any more car accidents?

Maybe. Or maybe they'll just insure other things. But if they do, so fucking what. Buggy whip.

Then he gets really stupid ...

The proposed unintended consequences start to get a lot darker, too, like the idea that there might be a sudden drop in organ donations when all those car accidents go away.

The reporter is a she, BTW. You'd do her. Yeah I didn't pay much attention to that last bit about the "unintended consequences". They are all actually net positives, as you correctly point out, that are being looked at as negatives. However, there will be losers and the losers will probably make a stink about it, and sometimes politicians will pander to the losers by throwing up roadblocks, so it's still something to keep in mind.

[gnome]

In the case of the trucking industry, I expect resistance to the point of civil unrest. We should already be planning how to get ahead of that problem and make the transition less painful. And I don't mean by getting better riot gear for police.

[Rob Lister]

In the case of the trucking industry, I expect resistance to the point of civil unrest. We should already be planning how to get ahead of that problem and make the transition less painful. And I don't mean by getting better riot gear for police.

They'll be okay.
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/ ... rs/551879/
It may actually create jobs for them.

[gnome]

That'd be great if it works out that way. Interesting article.

Wish we had RT here for this discussion.

[Grammatron]

I'm curious how many people here have had an opportunity to be behind the wheel of a self-driving car.

[Anaxagoras]

I'm curious how many people here have had an opportunity to be behind the wheel of a self-driving car.

Not me, have you?

[Grammatron]

I have "driven" such a car from San Diego to Los Angeles.

As a daily commuter in populated area it's significantly less stressful to drive on highways. With all the radars I barely had to pay any attention to the road as the car kept itself in the proper lane and stopped to avoid collisions. The issues prop up when the lanes are not clear and in residential areas. The car gets confused and can exhibit unsettling maneuvers where it would just jump into another lane or swerve to avoid some perceived but non-existing obstacle.

In short, as an added safety measure it's unparalleled, as an autonomous system it's nowhere near ready.

[Rob Lister]

The car gets confused and can exhibit unsettling maneuvers where it would just jump into another lane or swerve to avoid some perceived but non-existing obstacle.

So it drives like my wife but without collisions.

[Grammatron]

I have "driven" such a car from San Diego to Los Angeles.

As a daily commuter in populated area it's significantly less stressful to drive on highways. With all the radars I barely had to pay any attention to the road as the car kept itself in the proper lane and stopped to avoid collisions. The issues prop up when the lanes are not clear and in residential areas. The car gets confused and can exhibit unsettling maneuvers where it would just jump into another lane or swerve to avoid some perceived but non-existing obstacle.

In short, as an added safety measure it's unparalleled, as an autonomous system it's nowhere near ready.

How does it compare with (for example) riding a bus?

I don't see how it compares at all.

[Grammatron]

I don't see how it compares at all.

Getting to work without having to drive.

You will have to drive and be competent at it, so it doesn't compare in those terms.

[Grammatron]

You will have to drive and be competent at it, so it doesn't compare in those terms.

So really more like an especially slick cruise control?

At the moment, yes. Though some are better than others.

[Anaxagoras]

I have "driven" such a car from San Diego to Los Angeles.

As a daily commuter in populated area it's significantly less stressful to drive on highways. With all the radars I barely had to pay any attention to the road as the car kept itself in the proper lane and stopped to avoid collisions. The issues prop up when the lanes are not clear and in residential areas. The car gets confused and can exhibit unsettling maneuvers where it would just jump into another lane or swerve to avoid some perceived but non-existing obstacle.

In short, as an added safety measure it's unparalleled, as an autonomous system it's nowhere near ready.

So, once I assume? A Google car (now Waymo)? No rain?

I have wondered what rain would do to LIDAR. If it sometimes "sees" obstacles that aren't there, rain might make that worse.

[Rob Lister]

https://qz.com/637509/driverless-cars-h ... n-or-snow/

[Grammatron]

I have "driven" such a car from San Diego to Los Angeles.

As a daily commuter in populated area it's significantly less stressful to drive on highways. With all the radars I barely had to pay any attention to the road as the car kept itself in the proper lane and stopped to avoid collisions. The issues prop up when the lanes are not clear and in residential areas. The car gets confused and can exhibit unsettling maneuvers where it would just jump into another lane or swerve to avoid some perceived but non-existing obstacle.

In short, as an added safety measure it's unparalleled, as an autonomous system it's nowhere near ready.

So, once I assume? A Google car (now Waymo)? No rain?

I have wondered what rain would do to LIDAR. If it sometimes "sees" obstacles that aren't there, rain might make that worse.

Once as a driver. It was a Honda Sensinsg system, I am not if it uses any Waymo tech or it's Honda home brew. No rain and during the day.

[Rob Lister]

Robotaxi permit gets Arizona’s OK; Waymo will start service in 2018
The state has granted Waymo a Transportation Network Company permit.

On Friday, we discovered that Waymo, the self-driving Google spinoff, has been granted a permit to operate as a Transportation Network Company in the state of Arizona. This means that it can launch an official ride-hailing service and start charging customers for their journeys. It also confirms the findings of a recent report that put Waymo at the front of the autonomous vehicle pack, meaning my colleague Tim Lee was right when he said the launch of a commercial operation by Waymo in Arizona was imminent.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/02/ro ... e-in-2018/

If gnome is right the riots may start any day now.

Not that there are enough taxi drivers in Arizona to fill a thimble anyway.

The comments are interesting. I would personally like something like a Johnny Cab--a fake "driver" would make me feel more comfortable. Plus, we could chat.

[Rob Lister]

Uber is paving the way

Uber self-driving trucks are now moving cargo for Uber Freight customers

Uber’s autonomous trucks are now doing actual work for customers via Uber Freight, Uber’s commercial cargo shipping on-demand app. The first runs are being done in Arizona, with regular hauls operating with both human drivers and autonomous trucks working in tandem.

How it works is that Uber will load up the freight on a conventional, human driven truck who collects the load from the shipper and then does a short haul run to a transfer hub. The short haul truck then loads its cargo onto a long-haul freight transport, which is autonomous for the purposes of these trips. That self-driving test truck handles the highway driving for the longer portion of the trip, handing it off once again to a human-driven trip for the short haul cap to the overall journey.

https://techcrunch.com/2018/03/06/uber- ... customers/



My most liberal back of the snot-rag calculation is that this process cuts the cost of the long haul portion of the trip in half. But more conservatively, probably only by one-forth.

[Anaxagoras]

I assume that the "self-driving truck" still has a human being on board just in case, right?

[Rob Lister]

I assume that the "self-driving truck" still has a human being on board just in case, right?

For now. Give it a decade.

[Witness]

It has started:
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... s-attacked

Just some (mild) cases…





… for now!

[Anaxagoras]

That's the other thing. Without a driver, would autonomous trucks be targeted by robbers or vandals? The human factor is a potential issue, at least until there's a culture change where everyone is accustomed to it and OK with it.

[Rob Lister]

That's the other thing. Without a driver, would autonomous trucks be targeted by robbers or vandals?

Of course they would.

I don't think that will be a problem. A driverless vehicle will be in constant contact with a control center and has about a gazillion cameras. They may not even have steering wheels in the near future. Tough to steal that though I'm sure some will try.

[Anaxagoras]

Yeah, I figured that there could be anti-theft countermeasures, but if all they really want to do is damage the vehicle or cause trouble, that's a little harder to prevent.

Hopefully the problem will be a minor nuisance, but there's always a few Luddites when you have a new disruptive technology that replaces workers. And some people just like to vandalize things not for profit but just for fun because they are assholes.

[Anaxagoras]

"Luddites"?

I'm talking about the same sort of people who already high jack trucks and steal cargo.

This is a case of automation making someone's job easier.

I'm not sure it would actually be any easier than highjacking a truck with a human driver. In some ways it might be harder, given countermeasures. With no driver to hold hostage, police can be informed immediately. And the truck and trailer could be "hardened" in various ways. With GPS, they know exactly where the truck and trailer is at all times, so they could tell the police exactly where to go.

The original luddites weren't technophobes, they were angry that they were being put out of a job, and that their skills were being make obsolete, so they would try to destroy machines in the mills that were competing with them.

The Luddites were a group of English textile workers and weavers in the 19th century who destroyed weaving machinery as a form of protest. The group was protesting the use of machinery in a "fraudulent and deceitful manner" to get around standard labour practices.[1] Luddites feared that the time spent learning the skills of their craft would go to waste as machines would replace their role in the industry.[2] It is a misconception that the Luddites protested against the machinery itself in an attempt to halt the progress of technology. Over time, however, the term has come to mean one opposed to industrialisation, automation, computerisation, or new technologies in general.[3] The Luddite movement began in Nottingham and culminated in a region-wide rebellion that lasted from 1811 to 1816. Mill owners took to shooting protesters and eventually the movement was suppressed with military force.

[Rob Lister]

Theodore Kaczynski was a luddite of the the second type; against automation and computerization in general. He thought it would do to us exactly what it indeed did to us.

[Anaxagoras]

Typically, those who high jack trucks leave the driver unharmed if he doesn't fight, because why risk a felony murder charge when you're in it for the money?

So shit like stopping a speeding truck by shooting out the tires is right out.

But with no driver to worry about ...

As a similar example, which one is easier to rob, a bank or an ATM machine? I guess the most common method to steal directly from an ATM is a so-called "ram raid" or "crash and grab". You need a large stolen vehicle to do that, so the crime would seem to involve first stealing a pickup truck or SUV. Another way is to mug somebody at an ATM and make them withdraw money, but with most ATMs having like a $200 limit, that has fairly meager results. Basically, if it was too easy, ATMs probably wouldn't exist, because the risk of robbery would make the whole enterprise unprofitable. On the other hand, there are over 4000 bank robberies in the US every year according to the FBI statistics. You don't even need a real gun to do it, sometimes just a hand in the pocket pretending to have a gun does the trick.

So I'm sure it will happen, it's just a question of how often, and how risky is it for the would-be criminals.

[Rob Lister]

Another way is to mug somebody at an ATM and make them withdraw money, but with most ATMs having like a $200 limit, that has fairly meager results....

$700 at my bank, Up to $2000 at some. That's a respectable mugging.

I see self driving trucks as being no more armored than regular trucks.
Sure they could be built like tanks (including even AI controlled weaponry if you like), but that nullifies the cost savings in terms of increased fuel + tearing up the roads.

Draw me a picture of how you think a robbery might take place here 'cause the way I see it, it would look the same as robbing a human-driven truck except they can't steal the truck itself and nobody has the keys to the rear cargo doors. So once they bust that lock, what then? They can't steal the truck itself. Did they bring another semi to steal the cargo? Oh, and the whole thing is being recorded six ways to Sunday and the cops are already on the way, btw.

Sure, it will happen, but less frequently.

[Rob Lister]

They steal the cargo with another (smaller) truck, not necessarily the whole cargo of course. As sometimes done now, because police aren't looking for the other

You're just being Clausian here.