UK's Climate Research Unit server Hacked -- Cat out of bag

We are the Borg.
asthmatic camel
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Post by asthmatic camel »

Candide wrote:
Mentat wrote:One thing is for certain, we cannot continue to keep growing at the rate we are. What is the maximum population the Earth can sustain? 9 billion? 12 billion? What is the maximum population that the Earth can reasonably accommodate for a decent lifestyle for most? 4 billion? 2 billion? 6 billion? I haven't the numbers, but there is an upper limit where no matter the technology, it's not going to budge.
Here's a list of the second through seventh most densely- populated places on earth:

Monaco
Singapore
Hong Kong
Gibraltar
Vatican City
Bermuda
Malta

The top 30 include Taiwan, South Korea, Israel, and The Netherlands. These are all prosperous, by any meaningful measure.

Meanwhile, many of the poorest countries on earth are also the least-densely populated.

If you can demonstrate any correlation between population density and poverty, I'd be interested in seeing it.
The top thirty also include India and China, why do you not mention them? They contain the bulk of the world's population and many there live in poverty. What are you trying to say?
Last edited by asthmatic camel on Wed Nov 25, 2009 2:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
DrMatt
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Post by DrMatt »

Candide wrote:
Mentat wrote:One thing is for certain, we cannot continue to keep growing at the rate we are. What is the maximum population the Earth can sustain? 9 billion? 12 billion? What is the maximum population that the Earth can reasonably accommodate for a decent lifestyle for most? 4 billion? 2 billion? 6 billion? I haven't the numbers, but there is an upper limit where no matter the technology, it's not going to budge.
Here's a list of the second through seventh most densely- populated places on earth:

Monaco
Singapore
Hong Kong
Gibraltar
Vatican City
Bermuda
Malta

The top 30 include Taiwan, South Korea, Israel, and The Netherlands. These are all prosperous, by any meaningful measure.

Meanwhile, many of the poorest countries on earth are also the least-densely populated.

If you can demonstrate any correlation between population density and poverty, I'd be interested in seeing it.
This is sorta like mixing weather with climate.
hammegk
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Post by hammegk »

DrMatt wrote:
Candide wrote:
Mentat wrote:One thing is for certain, we cannot continue to keep growing at the rate we are. What is the maximum population the Earth can sustain? 9 billion? 12 billion? What is the maximum population that the Earth can reasonably accommodate for a decent lifestyle for most? 4 billion? 2 billion? 6 billion? I haven't the numbers, but there is an upper limit where no matter the technology, it's not going to budge.
Here's a list of the second through seventh most densely- populated places on earth:

Monaco
Singapore
Hong Kong
Gibraltar
Vatican City
Bermuda
Malta

The top 30 include Taiwan, South Korea, Israel, and The Netherlands. These are all prosperous, by any meaningful measure.

Meanwhile, many of the poorest countries on earth are also the least-densely populated.

If you can demonstrate any correlation between population density and poverty, I'd be interested in seeing it.
This is sorta like mixing weather with climate.
Saved for posterity. A useful and on-topic (well, kinda, with thread drift & all) comment from DrMatt.
Mentat
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Post by Mentat »

Candide wrote:
Mentat wrote:One thing is for certain, we cannot continue to keep growing at the rate we are. What is the maximum population the Earth can sustain? 9 billion? 12 billion? What is the maximum population that the Earth can reasonably accommodate for a decent lifestyle for most? 4 billion? 2 billion? 6 billion? I haven't the numbers, but there is an upper limit where no matter the technology, it's not going to budge.
Here's a list of the second through seventh most densely- populated places on earth:

Monaco
Singapore
Hong Kong
Gibraltar
Vatican City
Bermuda
Malta

The top 30 include Taiwan, South Korea, Israel, and The Netherlands. These are all prosperous, by any meaningful measure.

Meanwhile, many of the poorest countries on earth are also the least-densely populated.

If you can demonstrate any correlation between population density and poverty, I'd be interested in seeing it.
Okay, I really don't see how we got from global population maxima to high density cities.
DrMatt
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Post by DrMatt »

Mentat wrote:
Candide wrote:
Mentat wrote:One thing is for certain, we cannot continue to keep growing at the rate we are. What is the maximum population the Earth can sustain? 9 billion? 12 billion? What is the maximum population that the Earth can reasonably accommodate for a decent lifestyle for most? 4 billion? 2 billion? 6 billion? I haven't the numbers, but there is an upper limit where no matter the technology, it's not going to budge.
Here's a list of the second through seventh most densely- populated places on earth:

Monaco
Singapore
Hong Kong
Gibraltar
Vatican City
Bermuda
Malta

The top 30 include Taiwan, South Korea, Israel, and The Netherlands. These are all prosperous, by any meaningful measure.

Meanwhile, many of the poorest countries on earth are also the least-densely populated.

If you can demonstrate any correlation between population density and poverty, I'd be interested in seeing it.
Okay, I really don't see how we got from global population maxima to high density cities.
The same way others on this board have gotten from climate to the current weather. It's the old synecdoche error. My coffee is lukewarm, therefore the risk of burning oneself by spilling hot coffee doesn't exist.
Hamme's mind is too slow to follow things like this, so no doubt he'll follow up on one of my posts with a snide remark.
Candide
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Post by Candide »

Abdul Alhazred wrote:Highest population density country is Belgium.
Not according to what I found. They seem to be about number 33 (wikisort seems to be off a little...).
Candide
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Post by Candide »

Mentat wrote:Okay, I really don't see how we got from global population maxima to high density cities.
Bermuda and Taiwan aren't cities.

When I visited Bermuda a few years ago, a local informed me Bermuda is "80,000 alcoholics clinging to a rock in the middle of the Atlantic."
asthmatic camel
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Post by asthmatic camel »

Evasion noted.
Candide
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Post by Candide »

DrMatt wrote:Hamme's mind is too slow to follow things like this, so no doubt he'll follow up on one of my posts with a snide remark.
...he said snidely... :D
robinson
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Post by robinson »

robinson
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Post by robinson »

Those guys are so fucked. Once again, the power of teh internets has been unleashed.
xouper
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Post by xouper »

Abdul Alhazred wrote:
Candide wrote:Warmergate.
Warm-mongers.
Anything "-gate" torques my jaws. Even if it's Steyn.
How many foot-pounds do you get from this one?

http://www.electronicsteacher.com/digit ... /04125.png

Image courtesy of http://www.electronicsteacher.com
ed
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Post by ed »

Candide wrote:
Mentat wrote:Okay, I really don't see how we got from global population maxima to high density cities.
Bermuda and Taiwan aren't cities.

When I visited Bermuda a few years ago, a local informed me Bermuda is "80,000 alcoholics clinging to a rock in the middle of the Atlantic."
You say that with the hint of reproach. Why?
sparks
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Post by sparks »

A B O
0 0 0
0 1 0
1 0 0
1 1 1

Something like this, perhaps........................
En folkefiende
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Post by En folkefiende »

corplinx wrote:
Candide wrote:
Mentat wrote:Okay, I really don't see how we got from global population maxima to high density cities.
Bermuda and Taiwan aren't cities.

When I visited Bermuda a few years ago, a local informed me Bermuda is "80,000 alcoholics clinging to a rock in the middle of the Atlantic."
If the scuba diving was a few degrees warmer, it would sound like my kind of island.

The local however couldn't have been more wrong. Bermuda isn't really in the middle of the atlantic. Ascension island in the southern Atlantic actually sits atop the mid-atlantic ridge. I think it was a cross-continental cable relay that the UK staffed.
Well, there's Tristan de Cunha :)
Badger
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Post by Badger »

Sad that the mainstream media have totally layed off this.

In Canada, the CBC even had gore and suzuki on the other day, and though this was submitted to the questions area many times, not a peep.

corus is not reporting it, CTV isn't, the globe and mail isn't. Etc.

Oh, journalistic integrity, wherefore art thou?

Makes me sad to know I'm not getting the real dirt on Jon, Kate, Britney, Lady Gaga, etc.
Badger
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Post by Badger »

corplinx wrote:Hide the decline can be explained away easily. If we have a wave whose y axis is positive, if you show the past say 20 years, you would think the the positive trend had stopped.

When I read the email excerpt, it looked like they just said to add older data so that the blip at the end isn't meaningful.
Give this a read:

http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.org/

I find the temperature graphs interesting in that they use proxy data to one point, and then real data for the last bit from 1980 on. While it's true that they note it, it's still very misleading, in my opinion. The appearance at first glance gives a certain impression.

Also, the rest of the document seems most sensationalistic. It's like they used the same guy who did the graphics for 2012.



So, I have a serious question. What's wrong with using proxy data for the last 20 or 30 years too? Trees still grow. Ice still forms. Sedimentation in bodies of water is still happening.
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Post by Rob Lister »

dup
Last edited by Rob Lister on Thu Nov 26, 2009 11:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Rob Lister
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Post by Rob Lister »

Badger wrote:
So, I have a serious question. What's wrong with using proxy data for the last 20 or 30 years too? Trees still grow. Ice still forms. Sedimentation in bodies of water is still happening.
And the serious answer is...

The divergence problem.

Sedimentation is too sensitive to manmade influence (dredging, bridgebuilding, shipping) to be of any recent use and frankly, doubtful has much use for distant past. New Ice core data is tricking because of compression issues (or lack of compression, really) Besides, it's only otherwise useful in arctic environs.

The only thing left is treerings.

They resisted doing that for years and years because what would they say if it didn't match?.

When they tried it (were forced, more or less), the tree ring data didn't match up to the temp. '

Surprise!

It bore no relation to current temps whatsoever. Heck, it was practically opposite of temp (colder the temp, narrower the ring)



Google Site:www.climateaudit.com divergence
( but you'll have to wait until after the DOS attack CA is currently experiencing. Or maybe you can get a cashed copy).

Some of the hacked emails discuss this very issue.

AFAIC There is no evidence that dendroclimatoloty accuratly reflect the tempature, so far as I know. The science can measure climate, to a certain degree, but tempature...not so much.

I see it as no better than reading tea leaves, and far less fun too
En folkefiende
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Post by En folkefiende »

Rob Lister wrote:AFAIC There is no evidence that dendroclimatoloty accuratly reflect the tempature, so far as I know. The science can measure climate, to a certain degree, but tempature...not so much.

I see it as no better than reading tea leaves, and far less fun too
Carbon isotope ratios (not standard carbon dating, but something even more finiky) can provide some input, as can Oxygen isotope ratios, but I'm not aware that's happened. Rings themselves are affected by temperature, weather, etc... Not just temperature.
hammegk
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Post by hammegk »

A blog commenting on proxies:

http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=1362

sorta along the lines I've always considered such efforts; ie bullshit.

Also for your viewing pleasure.





Then some discussion of coding/data integrity.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/2...ed/#more-13197


GIGO writ large, in what I suspect is the largest data processing efforts ever attempted.
robinson
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From the TOP thread

Post by robinson »

Sorry for the delay but because so many Memebrs are going to be suspended we wanted to ensure we had double and then tripled checked the suspension decisions.The following Members will be suspended for 2 days (reduced from 3 days because of the delay in enforcing the warning), Drysdale, AlBell, MikeMangum, BenBurch, Lomiller, MattusMaximus, Lionking, Sparky, Daenku32, Megalodon, Herzblut, Reality Check, uk_dave, A_Unique_Person, DogB, for breaches of their Membership Agreement in this thread and as per this warning. (Another Member of the Mod Team will be going through the thread and deleting the "offending" posts.)
-- Darat
ed
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Post by ed »

Doesn't the level of censorship over there ever raise eyebrows?
robinson
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Post by robinson »

Russia Today has been doing a series of reports on the increasingly disturbing events surrounding the hacked data and emails.



For some reason Russian Media doesn't have a problem with reporting that Government agencies may be involved in conspiracy, cover ups and corruption at the highest levels.

Something that is becoming obvious to this casual observer.
xouper
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Post by xouper »

ed wrote:Doesn't the level of censorship over there ever raise eyebrows?
People who still have eyebrows have all left or been shown the door.
Geni
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Post by Geni »

robinson wrote: For some reason Russian Media doesn't have a problem with reporting that Government agencies may be involved in conspiracy, cover ups and corruption at the highest levels.
No the russian media has no problem with saying just about anything about non russian goverments (saying the wrong thing about putin can result in you having an acident).


Hmm russia today? Thats owned by RIA Novosti isn't it.
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Post by Anaxagoras »

ed wrote:Doesn't the level of censorship over there ever raise eyebrows?
I think it's time to send a few invites.

I'll PM them.
En folkefiende
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Post by En folkefiende »

xouper wrote:
ed wrote:Doesn't the level of censorship over there ever raise eyebrows?
People who still have eyebrows have all left or been shown the door.
There's a few watchers left. I sense their patience waning...
DogB
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Post by DogB »

So this is where you all got to. Xoup, jj, hammi - jebus even god’s here. That, by definition, must make it the coolest place on the net.

:D
robinson
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Post by robinson »

I hear they will let almost anyone in here.
DogB
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Post by DogB »

Obviously. :twisted:
En folkefiende
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Post by En folkefiende »

DogB wrote:Obviously. :twisted:
Even DogBerry?
Rob Lister
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Post by Rob Lister »

A_Unique_Person was in that suspension list.

I thought he died or something.
asthmatic camel
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Post by asthmatic camel »

Back on topic, it looks like all the research is to be made public. Eventually...
In a statement welcomed by climate change sceptics, the university said it would make all the data accessible as soon as possible, once its Climatic Research Unit (CRU) had negotiated its release from a range of non-publication agreements.
Linky
hammegk
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Post by hammegk »

Prof Jones, who has refused to quit despite calls even from within the green movement, said last week in a statement issued through University of East Anglia, "My colleagues and I accept that some of the published emails do not read well. I regret any upset or confusion caused as a result. Some were clearly written in the heat of the moment, others use colloquialisms frequently used between close colleagues."

He suggested the theft of emails and publication first on a Russian server was "a concerted attempt to put a question mark over the science of climate change in the run-up to the Copenhagen talks".

He added: "Our global temperature series tallies with those of other, completely independent, groups of scientists working for NASA and the National Climate Data Centre in the United States, among others. Even if you were to ignore our findings, theirs show the same results. The facts speak for themselves; there is no need for anyone to manipulate them."
Unfortunately, HADcrut2v is the "gold standard" as I understand things at the moment although I may be mistaken. Do any groups doing modelling not use their data?

I'd say there is no doubt the Jones-Mann historic reconstruction basically eliminates the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age ; e.g. The Sky Is Falling with recent temperatures much higher than 1000 yrs ago during MWP. And we are treading in half-a-degree or less territory to make the current temps look "the worst".

Also worrisome, from some of the hacked data released comments, there were concerns on gridding algorhytm screwiness.
asthmatic camel
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Post by asthmatic camel »

Hammy, I don't know what to believe and whom I should trust. Anecdotally, I haven't noticed any great changes during my lifetime, but the weather here is notoriously variable. Perhaps a better picture will emerge once the data are published, (assuming that it hasn't been doctored), and we'll be able to see what's really happening.
asthmatic camel
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Post by asthmatic camel »

corplinx wrote:There is that whole Greenland glacier thing thats melting.
There are a whole lot of other theories, too. I'm reserving judgement.
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Post by Anaxagoras »

Discovery Institute Creationists Thrilled About 'Climategate'
Another right wing group working overtime to capitalize on the stolen CRU email “scandal:” the dishonest creationist wackos at the Discovery Institute. And as usual, they take the idiocy to a whole new level, claiming that the CRU emails discredit all of modern science. Yes, really.

. . .

This is a perfect example of a point I’ve made several times: the convergence of tactics and talking points between climate denial groups and creationists. They both use cherry-picked data, they both employ pseudo-scientific language to make outrageous claims that sound convincing to gullible people, they both compile lists of skeptical “scientists” that turn out to be packed with ringers, frauds, and people who never signed in the first place, and they both use quote mining.

And they are very often the same people.
asthmatic camel
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Post by asthmatic camel »

Fair enough, Anaxagoras. However, although I'm no scientist, I watch interviews with people who are, like this, read articles like this, and wonder who is correct.

Are you surprised that I'm sceptical given recent events?
gnome
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Post by gnome »

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story? ... 021&page=1

Exxon-Mobile: $19 million to promote doubt on AGW

Mann, according to Abdul's link: $6 million in grants for study proposals.

Even if you assume that no legitimate science at all was performed with that $6 million (a stretch, I think)... I'm not sure how Exxon's numbers are "dwarfed".