Wuhan Flu Truth and Big Brother Narratives

[shemp]

For those who prefer truth over lies, nonsense and hyperbole: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html

[sparks]

Doesn't matter. The Robinson No True Neutron thingy will kill us first.

[Pyrrho]

US Department of State has issued a Level 4 travel advisory. "Do not travel to China"

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel ... isory.html

Do not travel to China due to the novel coronavirus first identified in Wuhan, China. On January 30, the World Health Organization (WHO) determined the rapidly spreading outbreak constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). Travelers should be prepared for the possibility of travel restrictions with little or no advance notice. Most commercial air carriers have reduced or suspended routes to and from China.

[ceptimus]

Number of dead divided by (dead + recovered) is currently a scary-high 48%. So of those who have been diagnosed but are no longer requiring treatment, almost half of them died. It is to be hoped that this fraction, and also the transmission rate fall substantially pretty soon, or it's bad news for humans.

Looking on the bright side, a cull of a sizeable fraction of humans will benefit wildlife and help to reduce pollution and climate change.

[Anaxagoras]

Yeah but for every known "recovery" there's 100 people who had it and recovered without ever being counted.

[Anaxagoras]

Natural is the default assumption.

[shemp]

It's kind of obvious that if we'd known the truth a week ago, flights would have been shut down then. The Chinese were lying to everyone else.

The CDC has the GIGO problem. Garbage-In, Garbage-Out. They get data from the Chinese.

Look what that fringe nutjobs at Bloomberg news are reporting:

Coastal Chinese City Quarantined (7:55 a.m. NY)
Wenzhou, an eastern port of 9 million people, became the first city outside central Hubei province to impose quarantine measures due to the coronavirus outbreak. The city, some 700 kilometers from the epidemic’s origin in Wuhan, is in Zhejiang province, which has about 600 confirmed cases of the virus, the highest number outside Hubei. The two cities are known for their business ties.

Families will be allowed to send one person out of the house every two days to shop for necessities, city authorities said. Residents are advised to leave their homes only for medical treatment or related reasons.

9million more people quarantined and confined to their homes to contain the wildfire.

In other words, the fringers have been more right than the press up until now and the press is catching up.

Sorry to pop your bubble Shemp, there is no authority to appeal to in this situation.

I have long known that you are an idiot. Nothing in this thread so far has changed my mind.

[ceptimus]

Yeah but for every known "recovery" there's 100 people who had it and recovered without ever being counted.

Yes, probably. But if they weren't diagnosed and treated they could have had some other bug? Have there been any scientific studies yet (maybe checking what proportion of the Wuhan population have antibodies for the virus) to estimate what proportion of those infected develop severe enough symptoms to make them seek treatment?

If there are lots of people who've had it and recovered that we don't know about, then that's good news for the death ratio, but it's bad news for the transmission ratio because that means it's spreading much faster than official figures show.

[Anaxagoras]

True. If someone had cold-like or flu-like symptoms and got better without ever seeing a doctor and getting tested, then we can't really say what they had. I'm just guessing though. I personally don't go running to a doctor for every sniffle or sneeze. If the symptoms were mild or moderate, I probably wouldn't bother.

[ceptimus]

The symptoms of Wuhan virus are a fever followed by a dry persistent cough, but notably and unusually NOT a runny nose. The severe cases then go on after a week or so to difficulty in breathing, and possible death.

So if you get a "cold" without a runny nose, it's probably a good idea to contact the medical authorities and let them know. But by the time we get it, the authorities are likely to be overwhelmed and won't be able to help.

[Anaxagoras]

Natural is the default assumption.

What about if we find oil all over a field, and it just happens an oil pipeline runs over the field. There is also the possibility that an oil field could be under the ground.

See the issue?

What do you consider to be evidence that this particular virus escaped from some lab? The existence of a patent by UK inventors and a research paper by Chinese authors about coronavirus in bats?

[Witness]

Looking on the bright side, a cull of a sizeable fraction of humans will benefit wildlife and help to reduce pollution and climate change.

:figamagee:

[shemp]

In the absence of evidence that Einstein had a three-foot dick, the possibility that he did cannot be dismissed out of hand.

[Anaxagoras]

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 8/fulltext

[Anaxagoras]

Coronavirus: UK donates £20m to speed up vaccine

The government has donated £20 million towards a break-neck plan to produce a vaccine to combat the deadly new coronavirus.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the money would help the UK lead the way in developing a new inoculation.

It comes as the death toll in China increased to 361 with the total number of cases there now above 17,000.

Meanwhile 11 Britons flown back from Wuhan - the outbreak's epicentre - have begun two weeks in quarantine.

The additional evacuees - who travelled from China via France - joined 83 people already in group isolation at Arrowe Park Hospital on the Wirral.
'Unprecedented' timescale

The government's £20m investment will go to CEPI - the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations - a global body aiming to fast-track a vaccine within six to eight months.

CEPI chief executive Dr Richard Hatchett said such a tight timescale was "unprecedented".

If the biologists are successful, more time would still be required to test the vaccine more widely and secure sign-off from medical regulators before it could be distributed across the world.

"This is an extremely ambitious timeline - indeed, it would be unprecedented in the field of vaccine development," Dr Hatchett said.

"It is important to remember that even if we are successful - and there can be no guarantee - there will be further challenges to navigate before we can make vaccines more broadly available."

[Doctor X]

There was this niffy British show called Survivors with That Hot Chick from The Ruling Class:



Shown: Not from the show Survivors nor her striptease in the film

and a Bunch of Guests that included Peter Bowles, That Guy Who Caters Red Weddings, Tiberius, and even That Fucking Guy in Everything from Rumpole to Dr. Who where "it" all began from a Chinese researcher dropping a flask.

Evidences:



Note the dates on the stamps.

– J. "Nursey!" D.

[Anaxagoras]

Heres that three foot schlong

https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the- ... ns-1.21487

Interesting. OK, call me curious. Still think the natural origin theory is more likely to be the right one though. There's bugs out there in the wild. We know this. And sometimes they mutate and evolve and jump from species to species. It has happened twice already that we know about since 2000 alone with coronaviruses, SARS and MERS. Happening a third time doesn't seem like much of a stretch.

Did you notice the Editors’ note?

Editors’ note, January 2020: Many stories have promoted an unverified theory that the Wuhan lab discussed in this article played a role in the coronavirus outbreak that began in December 2019. Nature knows of no evidence that this is true; scientists believe the most likely source of the coronavirus to be an animal market.

[Witness]

I'm assuming the drone is not armed, but that's just now.

Nope: it would interfere with facial recognition. :|

[Anaxagoras]

Either way it's bloody terrifying.

It's like dystopian sci-fi. Like an episode of Black Mirror.

[robinson]

Jesus fucking christ

[sparks]

Wakefield was well edumacated too.

Real question is: Why would China go to these extremes if the alleged crisis is a manufactured one?

[sparks]

Your explanation sounds right, but wasn't your main point above that the Chinese are lying about all this? And if so, why?

If not, then I misunderstood you and you have my apology.

[ceptimus]

Still no confirmed cases in Africa? I seem to remember a report of two? people in Sudan, but perhaps a false alarm. Also no cases in South America? I find this very suspicious and alarming - I expect when we do finally get confirmed cases on these continents there will be hundreds of people infected rather than just a handful.

[sparks]

So, do you think the Chinese are inflating or deflating the number of peeps infected? And again, to what end?

[The Atheist]

Still no confirmed cases in Africa? I seem to remember a report of two? people in Sudan, but perhaps a false alarm. Also no cases in South America? I find this very suspicious and alarming - I expect when we do finally get confirmed cases on these continents there will be hundreds of people infected rather than just a handful.

There haven't been any in NZ, either, despite 1500 - 2000 Chinese tourists arriving daily, until Monday this week.

It's all a bit bizarre and unknown.

One thing I do know - if this gets out of control, and that's a strong possibility at this stage - it could be the biggest number of dead in any pandemic in human history. Hospital systems will be overwhelmed and there will be some serious shit goes down. WHO estimates a mortality rate of 2%* and there is zero resistance to the virus, so you could potentially be looking at 150,000,000 deaths.

The fact of a major worldwide recession on the back of a pandemic seems hardly worth mentioning.

*I'm on record in saying they're over by a factor of 10, due to mild cases not being counted, so 5-15,000,000 deaths.

[sparks]

I'll even take 5 million.

"They bought their tickets. I say: Let 'em die!"

[robinson]

Model run estimated 65 million dead in 18 months.

So far things are following the model very closely

[The Atheist]

Model run estimated 65 million dead in 18 months.

So far things are following the model very closely

Not quite - the exponential increase has stopped and the number of new cases is definitely slowing.

The encouraging signs are in the countries outside China - there's nothing like exponential increase, and given that people are infections while asymptomatic, we'd be seeing a lot more cases.

One of two things is happening:

The virulence and severity is vastly decreased in tertiary transmission.
It's harder to catch than early estimates suggested.

Seven more days will give a much clearer picture.

[The Atheist]

"Smallpox did this, bacterial diseases did that, but I'm not linking coronavirus to that..."

Then why the fuck are you mentioning them??

Christ, does this bloke have any followers other than you, Corp? Boring, talks irrelevant crap - I'm 4 minutes in and he hasn't said a fucking thing of relevance.

"We're speculating, we don't really know..."

Yep - you're speculating and quoting numbers that have already been debunked.

"Could be..." mumble, stutter - decide what the fuck you're saying! "There's a lot of unknowns..." no shit!

"Now, let's talk SARS & MERS" - both of them are utterly irrelevant.

Then goes on to completely speculate about pregnant women and foetuses!

If you think that guy is any kind of resource, you're just wrong. The bloke's an almost-incoherent dickhead with no facts and lots of dumb opinions.

[shemp]

It's kind of obvious that if we'd known the truth a week ago, flights would have been shut down then. The Chinese were lying to everyone else.

The CDC has the GIGO problem. Garbage-In, Garbage-Out. They get data from the Chinese.

Look what that fringe nutjobs at Bloomberg news are reporting:

Coastal Chinese City Quarantined (7:55 a.m. NY)
Wenzhou, an eastern port of 9 million people, became the first city outside central Hubei province to impose quarantine measures due to the coronavirus outbreak. The city, some 700 kilometers from the epidemic’s origin in Wuhan, is in Zhejiang province, which has about 600 confirmed cases of the virus, the highest number outside Hubei. The two cities are known for their business ties.

Families will be allowed to send one person out of the house every two days to shop for necessities, city authorities said. Residents are advised to leave their homes only for medical treatment or related reasons.

9million more people quarantined and confined to their homes to contain the wildfire.

In other words, the fringers have been more right than the press up until now and the press is catching up.

Sorry to pop your bubble Shemp, there is no authority to appeal to in this situation.

I have long known that you are an idiot. Nothing in this thread so far has changed my mind.

Still haven't changed my mind.

[ceptimus]

The number of cases is still going up by about 10% each day. If that continues (which it won't) then everyone on earth will be have been infected by the middle of June, this year. I don't think it will spread that fast but it will be worldwide and common long before a vaccine that has gone through normal testing becomes available - I suppose if it's bad enough then the normal vaccine testing procedures will be bypassed.

I think the virus is beyond containing now. The interesting questions are the fatality rate, and what proportion of the population has natural immunity. It will also be interesting to see whether the virus spreads faster or slower in hotter countries

[Doctor X]

Dibs on your stereos.

– J.D.

[Anaxagoras]

I think various people showed the Chinese were just giving numbers predicted by a formula and not real ones.

A formula probably based on assumptions about the Wuhan quarantine working.

They literally couldn't give accurate numbers. If you dig in, you had to be examined by doctors at a hospital (which were overrun and turning people away), be tested (not everyone could be), etc, etc, etc, etc.

The fundamentals were broken, they had no way to report accurate counts of infected, it's all theorycraft.

And we don't trust the death count since China was trying to prevent a national meltdown.

There is a lot of circumstancial evidence that the death numbers are off. Like '20 people in body bags in just one location' when the death count was <300 total. People were basically saying in 225 death count range 'i've seen more corpses in leaked videos than they're reporting'.

The thing is, nobody wants to be called a kook for distrusting China even though we know China really can't be trusted.

If this emerged from the bl4 lab in Wuhan, there is also the potential for a large coverup to save face and prevent mass unrest aimed at the government.

Bat wasn't on the menu at the wet market.

What's your point?

[The Atheist]

Bit of an update for anyone not watching carefully - there's been a heap of extremely bad news today, namely:

Major outbreak expected in Singapore, based in the financial district with cases who have had more than multiple contacts. 6/22 current cases listed as critical.
UK NHS declares a "serious and imminent threat", opening up quarantine facilities throughout the country.
The cruise ship in Japanese quarantine doubled the number of cases overnight.

We might be in for a very rocky ride.

[ceptimus]

Cruise ship cabins are a very stupid way of isolating people. The ventilation system usually flows air into the cabin at one end of a row, and that same air then passes through all the other cabins in the same row before exiting. Anyone in a cabin downstream of an infected cabin gets wafted with the virus. The food for all the isolated people is prepared and delivered to the cabins by the same team, so if one of that team is infected that's another method of spreading the virus.

Regardless, it's becoming more clear that what I've feared and posted about over the last few weeks is fast becoming a reality. The virus continues to spread regardless of all the efforts to contain it. Pretty soon, further quarantine and isolation measures will become futile - and then your only defenses will be good hygiene and blind luck.

[Rob Lister]

I foresee a vaccine within two months.

[sparks]

It's only a really entertaining pandemic if the dead rise and eat peoples BRAINS!!!!!

And they won't, so fuck it.

[The Atheist]

I foresee a vaccine within two months.

Can't be done - they have to go through animal and human trials, so six months would be pushing it.

Then there's the factor that we still don't have a vaccine for SARS or MERS, despite years of lead time, and this Wuhan chap is a very close relative of SARS, so it might never happen. The other factor with coronaviruses is that they mutate faster than American presidents, so a vaccine could even be counter-productive and lead to something worse entirely.

The best option seems to be antivirals. The Thais swear by them and they do have the highest recovery rate, albeit on very small numbers. China's doing double-blind testing with several on n-2019 CoV patients, so keep an eye on that.

[The Atheist]

Your wish is my command.

[Rob Lister]

Dear Abdul,

Stop being a fucking avatar nazi. How about you do you and leave everyone else the fuck alone. Next you'll be writing our sigs.

Freak.

And stop greeting newbies with that gay midget shit.

Fag.

Your pal,
Lister.