Unofficial Final table comment thread

V.2 · Post by **V.2** » Sat May 21, 2005 12:17 am

Yahweh, if you have the jack....!

RCC, if Yahweh has the jack....!

Skeptoid · Post by **Skeptoid** » Sun May 22, 2005 12:18 am

What were the odds that Yahweh had a jack in the hole? I might've put him on a high pair in the hole but the 4th jack? I'd have bet the farm on the aces too. :(

V.2 · Post by **V.2** » Sun May 22, 2005 12:41 am

WOW!

I get 72 65 hands in a row. Then AA just when I need it. Then that flop. Then...!

That takes the cake. The only thing that could have been worse is A on the river. N1.

RCC · Post by **RCC** » Sun May 22, 2005 3:00 pm

Skeptoid wrote:What were the odds that Yahweh had a jack in the hole? I might've put him on a high pair in the hole but the 4th jack? I'd have bet the farm on the aces too. :(

Depends on how you look at it.

The pure math odds once you see the flop is about 22 to 1.

However, once Yahweh indicates he wants action on the flop the whole calculus changes. We know he has something he likes. We also know he limped in and called a small raise. What are the range of hands that make sense in this situation?

AK? Possible but unlikely. I'd think he would have raised preflop but could have slowplayed...

AQ? (or KQ?) Slightly more possible than AK

AJ? (or KJ QJ JT or even maybe J9) Makes total sense. Limp-call and then continue.

Ax? (x less than a jack) Preflop makes sense, but postflop action is strange but not unthinkable.

AA? Mathmatically unlikely, but consistent with the action.

KK or smaller pair? Sure... he has a big stack and flopped a full house.

I'd place the range on the flop as:

AK (8)
AQ (8)
KQ (16)
AJ (2)
KJ (2)
QJ (2)
TJ (2)
J9 (2)
AA (1)
KK (6)
QQ - 22 (60)

107 possible hands, 10 of which have a jack. So call it 10-1.

However, once Yahweh comes out swinging out of position with a small bet on the turn after calling on a scary flop and the turn bringing a blank... this is a classic betting pattern indicating that the player has a really big hand... an "I was afraid you wouldn't bet" bet.

Now my range is more like:
KK (6)
QQ (6)
AA (1)
hands with a jack (10)

If I doubt that Yahweh would limp-call the pairs, I'd place the range more like:

KK (2)
QQ (2)
AA (1)
Jx (10)
rags (1)
The turn bet is that scary.

Making V.2 a 2-1 underdog on the turn, as with AA there is only a split pot. Worse yet with the other pairs Yahweh has 2 outs that will hit about 4% of the time anyway... Grim.

Which makes it a close call. Given the stack sizes I'd have busted there as well, but I would have just flat called the turn and river, hope that if Yahweh has it he would just try to sell it to me by betting less than putting me all in hoping I call. Once I realize that despite my aces that I'm likely dead I'm more concerned with survival than collecting equity on the premise that my last chip is worth far more than the extra I win by risking it...

If we had many more chips in our stacks in relation to what was in the pot... say I call Yahweh's turn bet, there is 200 chips in the pot and on the river he moves me in for 5,000... I'm outta there with the aces. Of course, I would have played a jack the same way (in position) given the way the hand developed... so if he has the heart to make such a bluff, he wins...

This may sound nuts, but only if you concentrate on hand values. The question isn't just chance, you have to factor in how the hand was played.

This was very similar to the hand I posted in this thread:
http://www.skepticalcommunity.com/phpbb ... php?t=2384

Where I made four of a kind on the river in a heads up pot. I bet, was raised, I reraised, and he raised back. This was limit poker.

At that point I knew he at least thought he had a straight flush. The pure math odds against him holding exactly the Qh Th he needed were extremely remote... like 990-1 remote.... but the way the hand played I was certain I was in deep doo-doo and strongly considered folding to the last bet, but I was getting better than 30-1 so I made a "crying call" because that player could have been a bit of a nut or maybe misread his hand. If it had been a no-limit situation and the bet was larger, I would have folded. Or if I were assured that this player would not misread his hand and was a decent player, I would have saved the 12 bucks.

I of course lost as he showed me the only two cards that make sense, and many players were shocked that I stopped at four bets, mainly because they were thinking in terms of pure likelyhood, not the likelyhood filtered through the decisions made by the player (and in this case the look on the player's face, unavailable over the internet)...

V.2 · Post by **V.2** » Sun May 22, 2005 11:39 pm

RCC wrote:We also know he limped in and called a small raise.

Was the raise too small? I wanted him to call.

RCC · Post by **RCC** » Sun May 22, 2005 11:48 pm

V.2 wrote:
RCC wrote:We also know he limped in and called a small raise.
Was the raise too small? I wanted him to call.

Only small in the sense maybe he calls a slightly larger one, and you want as much in there as possible with aces, but then you risk a fold which is a mathematical disaster.

So not really. Nothing you could have done save just calling him down instead of reraising all in, but if he moves in on the river you have to call anyway.

Just one of those things that happens in short-handed tournament situations. Two big hands collide...

shemp · Post by **shemp** » Mon May 23, 2005 1:17 am

Bill Fillmaff would have played it better.

Yahweh · Post by **Yahweh** » Tue May 24, 2005 4:07 pm

Several checks in a row, you can literally cut the tension with a knife...

Aoidoi · Post by **Aoidoi** » Tue May 24, 2005 4:45 pm

I'm just worried you have 4 jacks again ;)

Yahweh · Post by **Yahweh** » Tue May 24, 2005 6:42 pm

That was seriously the lamest hand I had ever seen played, I'm glad I could be a part of it :P

Aoidoi · Post by **Aoidoi** » Tue May 24, 2005 8:06 pm

The kind of hand that gets people thoroughly mocked on Celebrity Poker Showdown. :D

Even RCC is mocking us, and he's been terribly polite about my inept play so far. ;)

Yahweh · Post by **Yahweh** » Thu May 26, 2005 6:48 am

That last hand:

RCC wrote:9 Aoidoi (197) shows Ad Td (Ace high)

board: 7s Js Ts 9s Qc

Shouldnt that be "pair of 10s, Ace kicker"?

(It doesnt change the outcome of the hand, I'm jus' sayin', ya know?)

RCC · Post by **RCC** » Thu May 26, 2005 1:08 pm

Yahweh wrote:That last hand:
RCC wrote:9 Aoidoi (197) shows Ad Td (Ace high)

board: 7s Js Ts 9s Qc
Shouldnt that be "pair of 10s, Ace kicker"?

(It doesnt change the outcome of the hand, I'm jus' sayin', ya know?)

You are correct....

(of course, V.2 was correct about a mistake once, and we saw what happened to him :twisted: )

(just kidding)

V.2 · Post by **V.2** » Thu May 26, 2005 3:12 pm

RCC wrote:(of course, V.2 was correct about a mistake once, and we saw what happened to him :twisted: )

I knew it!

I forgot to thank the dealer... thank you dealer.

Aoidoi · Post by **Aoidoi** » Thu May 26, 2005 3:13 pm

... and I'd just like to say....

#$%@^#$%@!!!!

;)

Yahweh · Post by **Yahweh** » Fri May 27, 2005 8:49 pm

If you are stepping away for a few days, Suddenly, let me say thank you for being the dealer. Enjoy yourself :)

Aoidoi · Post by **Aoidoi** » Sat May 28, 2005 4:11 am

Can we get a hot dealer with a nice rack next time? ;)

Actually, regardless I should thank our noble host for running this. And I don't say that just because I hope to get better cards out of it. :D

Skeptoid · Post by **Skeptoid** » Sat May 28, 2005 5:17 am

Perhaps RCC could create a sock-puppet named "Dealer" and then rotate the avatar to a different hot babe with a nice rack from time to time. :D

RCC · Post by **RCC** » Sat May 28, 2005 5:46 am

I should mention....

slimshady2357 will be the new dealer....

I'm expecting to be much more busy in real life soon, and to be honest I'm a bit sick of the whole deal and need a break...

I'd suggest if anyone runs one of these in the future that the intitial format, the 20 chips single table with blinds raised every 10 hands, is a better format. Plus, it could be done with up to 23 people, but 15 or so is likely the practical upper limit...

Not to cause undue speculation, but if there is a 3rd poker challenge...

1) It is unlikely to be my doing. Maybe someone else will pick up the baton...
2) Let me say now that I'll play, just so y'all can have the chance to beat the (clears throat) 2005 ATLARGE 7 card stud champion. Which to my utter weird delight pokerpages.com lists as a "major tournament."

http://www.pokerpages.com/tournament/schedule1762.htm

So now I can refer to myself as a poker champion, now that I've won a "major tournament..."

That is if I can keep a straight face...

Yeah, I'm drunk again....

shemp · Post by **shemp** » Sat May 28, 2005 12:45 pm

What RCC is trying to say is that he'll be very busy defending himself against numerous wombat prostitution charges. He also is preparing to take over the defense appeal for Michael Jackson.

I look forward to kicking the "major champion's" butt next year.

lofgeornost · Post by **lofgeornost** » Sat May 28, 2005 5:23 pm

Welcome to the dealer role, slim.

Thanks for starting the game & keeping it chugging this long, RCC.

Yahweh · Post by **Yahweh** » Tue May 31, 2005 8:59 pm

I believe that's the second time I've doubled up Aoidoi...

:KickBalls:

Aoidoi · Post by **Aoidoi** » Tue May 31, 2005 9:24 pm

... and I thank you muchly. :D

I think the first time you were trying to represent a flush and/or straight and I missed the possibility and called you anyway.

It's a wonderful feeling for someone to call you and say "I think you're bluffing" when you have top pair. :)

bjornart · Post by **bjornart** » Wed Jun 01, 2005 8:15 am

How does this math work?

Aoidoi wins 339 chips

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Hand 71

pot = 4

1 lofgeornost (280) <<< first up
2 shemp (215) D
4 Yahweh (463) posts 5
9 Aoidoi (328) posts 10

Is it one of those add/divide/subtract/multiply "where did the last pengo go" trick questions?

Yahweh · Post by **Yahweh** » Wed Jun 01, 2005 8:22 am

Aoidoi wrote:It's a wonderful feeling for someone to call you and say "I think you're bluffing" when you have top pair. :)

I do that as a defense mechanism to fight the psychological "I CANT BELIEVE YOU DID THAT, YAHWEH" in case I make a bad call ;)

lofgeornost · Post by **lofgeornost** » Wed Jun 01, 2005 1:09 pm

bjorn, there's a one chip ante for each player now
339-(BB+ante)=328

bjornart · Post by **bjornart** » Wed Jun 01, 2005 2:15 pm

lofgeornost wrote:bjorn, there's a one chip ante for each player now
339-(BB+ante)=328

What? Since when? Sheesh, you'd'ave thunk I'd be able to notice everyone else "lost" a chip as well, or the 'wrong' value of the pot, but noooo. :D

Yahweh · Post by **Yahweh** » Tue Jun 07, 2005 4:20 pm

Slim? Where are ya, buddy?

slimshady2357 · Post by **slimshady2357** » Tue Jun 07, 2005 11:51 pm

Yahweh wrote:Slim? Where are ya, buddy?

My apologies, an unexpected trip across the Atlantic and back.

Adam

Aoidoi · Post by **Aoidoi** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 3:25 pm

slimshady2357 wrote:My apologies, an unexpected trip across the Atlantic and back.

Adam

How many times do we have to tell you to stop and ask for directions when you're lost?!?

;)

Yahweh · Post by **Yahweh** » Fri Jun 17, 2005 11:12 pm

Thats three hands in a row, my hat come off to you lofgeornost for finding a strategy that works really well!

:db2: :db:

lofgeornost · Post by **lofgeornost** » Sat Jun 18, 2005 12:42 pm

Thanks, Yahweh. It's the WWCJFD* method.

Plus, I think you guys must be getting some cruddy cards.

*as in Chris "Jesus" Ferguson

shemp · Post by **shemp** » Fri Jun 24, 2005 12:23 pm

HEY SLIM! I just noticed that on hand 78, you switched the blinds. I should have been on the small blind, not the big blind!

hand 78

pot = 8

1 lofgeornost (475) D
2 shemp (145) posts 16
4 Yahweh (390) posts 8
9 Aoidoi (263) <<< first up

hands are dealt

I want my 8 chips back!!!

slimshady2357 · Post by **slimshady2357** » Fri Jun 24, 2005 12:40 pm

shemp wrote:HEY SLIM! I just noticed that on hand 78, you switched the blinds. I should have been on the small blind, not the big blind!

hand 78

pot = 8

1 lofgeornost (475) D
2 shemp (145) posts 16
4 Yahweh (390) posts 8
9 Aoidoi (263) <<< first up

hands are dealt
I want my 8 chips back!!!

Yes, I noticed too. And it's been corrected, about 13 minutes before you posted this ;)

Thanks for keeping an eye out though, I new I'd slip up somewhere.

Adam

shemp · Post by **shemp** » Fri Jun 24, 2005 3:28 pm

slimshady2357 wrote:
shemp wrote:HEY SLIM! I just noticed that on hand 78, you switched the blinds. I should have been on the small blind, not the big blind!

hand 78

pot = 8

1 lofgeornost (475) D
2 shemp (145) posts 16
4 Yahweh (390) posts 8
9 Aoidoi (263) <<< first up

hands are dealt
I want my 8 chips back!!!
Yes, I noticed too. And it's been corrected, about 13 minutes before you posted this ;)

Thanks for keeping an eye out though, I new I'd slip up somewhere.

Adam

Thanks.

Aoidoi · Post by **Aoidoi** » Fri Jun 24, 2005 3:56 pm

<blinking>

Holy crap... is that the second time I've sucked out with a lower pair?

Hmmm... reading that again, it sounds really dirty.

I was hoping Yahweh had a couple over cards. :D

shemp · Post by **shemp** » Fri Jun 24, 2005 4:16 pm

Aoidoi wrote:<blinking>

Holy crap... is that the second time I've sucked out with a lower pair?

Hmmm... reading that again, it sounds really dirty.

I was hoping Yahweh had a couple over cards. :D

You should consider yourself even more fortunate. I folded 3s 5s preflop. I would have only caught a straight flush.

Yahweh · Post by **Yahweh** » Fri Jun 24, 2005 4:17 pm

*grumble grumble*

:jesusbuffy:

Aoidoi · Post by **Aoidoi** » Fri Jun 24, 2005 4:30 pm

That was a nice example of "better lucky than good," wasn't it? Yahweh played it perfectly, got me all in with what, a 90% chance of winning?

And Shemp would have had me drawing dead had he been in.

In the immortal words of Penn while gambling on Bravo... "PRAISE SATAN!" :D

Aoidoi · Post by **Aoidoi** » Thu Jun 30, 2005 5:13 am

sigh... I hold on to a pair of 4s too long cause I'm an idiot, then fold a pair of 3s that would have made trips on the flop so as not to be an idiot again...