The Covid vaccines really do work

We are the Borg.
Pyrrho
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by Pyrrho »

Long Twitter thread on the Merck pill:

Pyrrho
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by Pyrrho »

Pyrrho
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by Pyrrho »

VRBPAC panelists voted unanimously to recommend Pfizer/BioNTech vaccination for children aged 5-11. The FDA will continue to consider and will eventually issue a ruling.

Meeting materials, including presentations, a few of which were from members of the proletariat general public:

https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees ... -materials
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by Pyrrho »

The FDA has authorized vaccination for children 5-11. Next up: CDC discussion and approval or whatever.
robinson
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by robinson »

Because all them animal studies show no chance of harm lol
Anaxagoras
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by Anaxagoras »



Tends to be elderly people with comorbidities including those who are immunosuppressed for some reason.
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by Pyrrho »

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-26479-2

Anti-spike antibody response to natural SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by Pyrrho »

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02795-x

COVID super-immunity: one of the pandemic’s great puzzles
People who have previously recovered from COVID-19 have a stronger immune response after being vaccinated than those who have never been infected. Scientists are trying to find out why.
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by Anaxagoras »

Why It’s Easy to Misinterpret Numbers of Deaths Among the Vaccinated

https://cdn.factcheck.org/UploadedFiles ... -rates.png
robinson
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by robinson »

The headline on that piece: “Why most people who now die with Covid in England have had a vaccination.” Spiegelhalter and Masters cautioned: “Don’t think of this as a bad sign, it’s exactly what’s expected from an effective but imperfect jab.”
robinson
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by robinson »

And if even more people die after being vaccinated, even if hospitals are overwhelmed, even if society crumbles and falls, the jabs worked
Last edited by robinson on Tue Nov 02, 2021 5:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by robinson »

No really, just look at Africa or India, where millions died

No vaccines


While the advanced western nations are almost Covid free now
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by Anaxagoras »

I don’t know if the point of that story eluded you or if you are just deliberately ignoring it. The graph says it all.
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by Anaxagoras »

robinson wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:11 am No really, just look at Africa or India, where millions died

No vaccines


While the advanced western nations are almost Covid free now
Here's the problem with taking statistics from Africa at face value:
The true death toll of COVID-19
COVID-19 deaths are a key indicator to track the evolution of the pandemic. However, many countries still lack functioning civil registration and vital statistics systems with the capacity to provide accurate, complete and timely data on births, deaths and causes of death. A recent assessment of health information systems capacity in 133 countries found that the percentage of registered deaths ranged from 98% in the European region to only 10% in the African region.
How severe the problem is in Africa is just a giant unknown at this point, because most countries in the region "lack functioning civil registration and vital statistics systems with the capacity to provide accurate, complete and timely data on births, deaths and causes of death."


Excess death calculations

Actual worldwide toll, 16.8 million excess deaths

95% probability, 10.3 million to 19.5 million

Official versus actual deaths (Economist)

US, deaths = 745,274
US, deaths = 860,000 to 1 million

China, deaths = 4,600
China, deaths = 150,000 to 1,700,000

India, deaths = 458,000
India, deaths = 1.2 million to 7.2 million

Russia, deaths = 236,462
Russia, deaths = 870,000 to 910,000

Indonesia, deaths = 143,457
Indonesia, deaths = 300,000 to 1.2 million

Pakistan, deaths = 28,477
Pakistan, deaths = 300,000 to 910,000

Bangladesh, deaths = 27,873
Bangladesh, deaths = 200,000 to 720,000

Turkey, deaths = 71,052
Turkey, deaths = 130,000 to 420,000

Mexico, deaths = 288,464
Mexico, deaths = 560,000 to 600,000

Brazil, deaths = 608,071
Brazil, deaths = 660,000 to 740,000
robinson
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by robinson »

Since the US can’t actually provide statistics on cause of death for 2020, I’m quite sure the numbers are almost meaningless

Sort of like when they said 600 million people would die from AIDS
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

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Countries like Sweden, that do provide statistics, show a slight increase in the death rate, which is most probable
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by Anaxagoras »

robinson wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 1:41 pm Since the US can’t actually provide statistics on cause of death for 2020, I’m quite sure the numbers are almost meaningless
I expect those numbers will be published by the CDC in December. They published the 2019 data in December of last year.
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by robinson »

Counties that actually publish data show stats much like Sweden


Using the weekly data from the flu reporting, which reports deaths from all causes, the increase in deaths due to Covid seems to be 1 in a thousand

For the US

If this increase was worldwide the deaths from Covid worldwide would be 7 million, which is 2 million more than the reported data on world meter
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by robinson »

If the vaccines work (and they certainly do in some sense), vaccinated countries should show a decrease in Covid deaths

But there are so many factors good luck proving it anytime soon
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by robinson »

Because there is so much politics and money involved, it’s a goddamn mess out there
ed
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by ed »

Anaxagoras wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 12:03 pm I don’t know if the point of that story eluded you or if you are just deliberately ignoring it. The graph says it all.
The graph presents a multivariate problem in only two dimensions. It really cannot be interpreted without more data.
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by Anaxagoras »

ed wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 2:45 pm
Anaxagoras wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 12:03 pm I don’t know if the point of that story eluded you or if you are just deliberately ignoring it. The graph says it all.
The graph presents a multivariate problem in only two dimensions. It really cannot be interpreted without more data.
Are you trolling, ed? :x
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by robinson »

Ed does not troll
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by ed »

Anaxagoras wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 2:54 pm
ed wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 2:45 pm
Anaxagoras wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 12:03 pm I don’t know if the point of that story eluded you or if you are just deliberately ignoring it. The graph says it all.
The graph presents a multivariate problem in only two dimensions. It really cannot be interpreted without more data.
Are you trolling, ed? :x
I actually know something about analyzing data, enough to be a pain in the ass.

data in the graph confounds co-morbidities and age (which is sorta a co-morbidity I guess) with a "Pure covid effect".

I have no idea how the data was drawn from the population so there might be some systematic bias in them.

On the surface it looks like one ought to be vaccinated but this as a result would not pass peer review as is.
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by Pyrrho »

ed wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 3:33 pm
Anaxagoras wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 2:54 pm
ed wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 2:45 pm
Anaxagoras wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 12:03 pm I don’t know if the point of that story eluded you or if you are just deliberately ignoring it. The graph says it all.
The graph presents a multivariate problem in only two dimensions. It really cannot be interpreted without more data.
Are you trolling, ed? :x
I actually know something about analyzing data, enough to be a pain in the ass.

data in the graph confounds co-morbidities and age (which is sorta a co-morbidity I guess) with a "Pure covid effect".

I have no idea how the data was drawn from the population so there might be some systematic bias in them.

On the surface it looks like one ought to be vaccinated but this as a result would not pass peer review as is.
You should apply to the FDA to become an Advisory Committee member.
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by robinson »

Now that’s trolling
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by Hotarubi »

Anaxagoras wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 12:03 pm I don’t know if the point of that story eluded you or if you are just deliberately ignoring it. The graph says it all.
If it's not a twitter post, it's not real data.

And that's 83% of FACT.
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

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Anax utterly failed to disclose whom the graph voted for in the last election.

– J.D.
robinson
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by robinson »

If the mRNA treatments worked, there would be fewer infected people

Fewer cases




So now “work” means “you still get Covid but you don’t die as much”

(Which is probably true, time will tell)

If you change what a word means, anything can be true
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by Anaxagoras »

robinson wrote: Sat Nov 06, 2021 8:19 pm If the mRNA treatments worked, there would be fewer infected people
They are vaccines, not treatments.


So now “work” means “you still get Covid but you don’t die as much”
Well, even if that's all it does, and it doesn't prevent cases, in the end what we ultimately want to prevent is severe illness and death. If it's doing that much, I would certainly argue that still counts as "work".

If you could prevent cases too, that would be great, but that's because cases are what lead to illness and death. If we can reduce the ratio of illness and death to cases, that's a victory too.
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

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Anaxagoras wrote: Sun Nov 07, 2021 3:56 am Well, even if that's all it does, and it doesn't prevent cases, in the end what we ultimately want to prevent is severe illness and death.

Even as Colorado approaches two years in the pandemic, there is still much the state’s leading authorities on the virus do not know. That extends to the current surge in cases, which has defied expectations and conventional wisdom and placed hospitals in jeopardy of being overwhelmed, a risk many believed had long passed.

Nationwide, coronavirus infections have declined from their peaks of earlier this fall, more recently leveling out. But, in Colorado, one of the more heavily vaccinated states in the country, infections have risen. And no one is quite sure why.

“I don’t have a great answer for that and, believe me, I’m looking,” Dr. Rachel Herlihy, the state epidemiologist, said last week.
https://coloradosun.com/2021/11/05/coro ... tions-why/
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by Hotarubi »

robinson wrote: Sat Nov 06, 2021 8:19 pm If the mRNA treatments worked, there would be fewer infected people

Fewer cases




So now “work” means “you still get Covid but you don’t die as much”

(Which is probably true, time will tell)

If you change what a word means, anything can be true
QED
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by Doctor X »

Suzi never consulted a dictionary?

Quelle surprise.

– J.D.
Pyrrho
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by Pyrrho »

This thread is your basic Moebius Strip.
Pyrrho wrote: Sun Oct 10, 2021 4:30 pm Coronaviruses have been historically difficult to manage. None of the vaccines show 100% efficacy in the prevention of infection. They do show significant reduction in rates of severe illness and related sequelae such as hospitalization and death. Each different vaccine has a different efficacy/safety profile. The inactive virus vaccines show lower efficacy than the mRNA vaccines. The clinical data for all of them do show that the vaccines do work to lower rates of infection, hospitalization, and death, as do the data from the public administration of the vaccines.

Here is an example of an analysis of breakthrough infection rates with measles vaccinations:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6628760/

Any expectation that vaccines will be 100% effective and safe is misguided, just as any assertion that the vaccines will be 100% safe and effective is misguided. Nevertheless, surveillance of adverse events and breakthrough infection rates is necessary.
Also, from 2020, and there may be newer data, it seems that if you ever got that COVID-19 before, you can get it again:

https://medical.mit.edu/covid-19-update ... d-19-again
But scientists have now documented four cases of reinfection that seem to show, unequivocally, that it is possible to contract the virus for a second time. In all four cases, researchers sequenced the viral genomes from each individual’s first and second diagnostic tests and found enough differences to establish that all four people were reinfected rather than harboring leftover virus from the first infection.

The first two cases were individuals who became sick for a second time. The first was a patient in Nevada who tested positive for the virus in March, recovered from a relatively mild illness, tested negative twice in May, and then became severely ill and was hospitalized in early June. The second was a patient in Hong Kong who became ill for a second time, but with milder symptoms, four and a half months after his initial illness had resolved.

The most recent report concerns two healthcare workers in India who tested positive twice, three and a half months apart. They didn’t develop symptoms either time, but, ominously, both had higher levels of the virus the second time around. This means that, although asymptomatic, they were probably more infectious and better able to spread the virus with the second infection.

It now seems clear that recovery from the virus does not necessarily prove protective against reinfection, but fundamental questions remain. For one thing, we don’t know how common reinfection is or at what point it is most likely to occur. We also don’t know if a second infection is likely to produce milder symptoms — which is what immunologists would predict in the case of most viruses — or more severe symptoms, a phenomenon called antibody-dependent enhancement, which is less likely but also possible.
In simpler terms, "herd immunity" isn't 100% safe and effective, either.

Oh, and fuck.
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by Doctor X »

The Möbius aspect results in the typical anti-science tactics:
  • 1. Make claim based on cherry-picked data and even utter fabrication.
    2. Deal with rebuttal by demanding evidences – thanks
    3. Ignore rebuttal evidence other than to try to cherry-pick or lie to pretend it supports the original claim.
    4. Change the claim and repeat the above.
    5. Discard changed claim and reintroduce the original claim.
    6. Repeat
with other fallacious variations.

How is that autism MMR connection working out?

– J.D.
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by Pyrrho »

Pfizer's pill:

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... -treatment
Pfizer says that its COVID-19 pill reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by 89%, in a clinical trial that tested the drug in adults with the disease who were also in high-risk health groups.

The oral medicine is called Paxlovid. Similar to Merck's new pill that was approved in the U.K. on Thursday, Pfizer said its drug showed good results when administered within five days of the first COVID-19 symptoms.

Based on the strength of the trial's results, Pfizer says it will stop enrolling people into more clinical trials for the pill and will instead send the results it has so far to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to seek emergency use authorization.
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by Doctor X »

Yeah, but we do not know what the effects of the pill will be in 20 years. . . .

– J.D.
Pyrrho
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

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Doctor X wrote: Mon Nov 08, 2021 4:55 am Yeah, but we do not know what the effects of the pill will be in 20 years. . . .

– J.D.
It must be noted that there are only 3 letters difference in the name "Paxlovid" and "Pavlov"! Therefore it will make us all literally barking mad! :o :freedom:
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

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Link to the study:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/ ... contribAff

Synopsis of the video:

The study was a comparison of non COVID-19 death rates between COVID-19 vaccine recipients and a demographically similar control group.

In other words, deaths caused by anything other than COVID-19. What they found is that the death rates were actually lower in the vaccine group than the control group (the unvaccinated group). In does not necessarily follow that the vaccine is causing a reduction in non COVID-19 death rates, which is discussed. There may be confounders. But it is consistent with the vaccines being safe to take for most people.
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by robinson »

You just have to redefine “work”